tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90304415388526670412024-03-12T16:18:53.657-07:00Oil AcumenJerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.comBlogger382125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-4389487005417506722016-12-25T12:51:00.001-08:002016-12-25T12:51:30.476-08:00ONE OF THE BEST OILERS TEAMS IN 20 YEARSHow lucky are we to be watching an Oilers team with 18 wins at Christmas? It's a feat that this franchise has only managed four times in the past 20 seasons, including this one. Because of the two lockouts, it's also only the fourth time in 22 years.<br />
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It's Christmas time, so for just a moment let's all forget about the Hall trade, the loss the other night to the Sharks, the five game losing streak. What we are witnessing is the third-best Oilers season at the Christmas break in the last twenty.<br />
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They've only had a winning record at Christmas seven times. Just two years ago, the Oilers were 7-21-7 at Christmas and in last place. Merry Christmas, Oilers fans. You're in [almost] uncharted territory with this team. Take the time to enjoy it. Below is a list of Oilers records just after Christmas since 1995/96:<br />
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18-12-6 <== YOU ARE HERE<br />
15-18-2<br />
7-21-7<br />
12-24-3<br />
Lockout<br />
15-16-3<br />
12-15-6<br />
15-18-4<br />
15-14-3<br />
16-18-3<br />
18-15-2 (7th in Conference)<br />
21-11-4 (Leading division, SCF year)<br />
Lockout<br />
12-16-6-0<br />
16-12-4-3<br />
20-12-5-2<br />
17-14-5-1<br />
11-11-9-5<br />
14-16-3<br />
11-18-9<br />
15-18-4<br />
11-19-6Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-46829780881652224932016-11-27T20:49:00.000-08:002016-11-27T20:49:15.190-08:0011/27/16 Jason Arnott and the Great Eberle Debate<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://thenationnetwork.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/97/b7/article_97b7d469-6185-47c0-b50a-bea069f26fc0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://thenationnetwork.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/97/b7/article_97b7d469-6185-47c0-b50a-bea069f26fc0.jpg" height="228" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>This is a re-post of an article I wrote back in July of 2012:</i><br />
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<span style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">An off season debate is swirling around Jordan Eberle's shooting percentage. To some, Eberle has reached his high water mark; to others he's only just begun. Another Oiler had a similar problem in the early part of the 1990s and it created expectations that contributed to him eventually being sent out of town. That player was Jason Arnott.</span><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">As an NHL rookie way back in 1993-94, Jason Arnott scored 33 goals on just 194 shots. While it seemed then that the sky was the limit for Arnott, it turns out that those 33 goals were a career high. Arnott matched the feat fifteen seasons later with the Predators in 2008-09, and also managed to crest the 30 goal plateau in 2005-06 with 32 tallies.</span><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">In that 1993-94 season, Arnott's shooting percentage was 17% in a time when an average of 10.7% of shots were going into nets league-wide. Over the course of Arnott's career, his shooting percentage would be north of 16% just two more times. Those were the two seasons in which Arnott reached 32 and 33 goals. His career shooting percentage is 12.1%.</span><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Arnott would be traded in 1998, after just 208 more games as an Oiler. In those games he fired the puck on net an impressive 748 times (3.6 per game), but scored only 67 goals (9.0% shooting).</span><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The bright side? So far Arnott has scored 417 goals and 938 points in a long career of 1244 games. Just shy of being elite, Arnott has still been a very solid contributor to six NHL teams and spent a total of 18 years in the league. He won the Stanley Cup in 2000 with the Devils and scored the clinching goal in double overtime of game six.</span><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">If Eberle follows a similar career path the Oilers will have a very good player on their hands. Even if he's just a 27 goal man like Arnott.</span><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Injuries and a perceived lack of effort played a part in Arnott's fall from grace in Edmonton, but so did a decline in his shooting percentage. He went from an 11.5% shooter in 1995-96 to 7.7% the following year, and finally fell to just 5% in his last 35 games as an Oiler in 1997-98. Nevermind the fact that he was a shot machine (and therefore theoretically a possession machine). The once-untouchable 33 goal rookie was ultimately shipped out of town in a crate marked "Fragile" and "Damaged Goods."</span><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The Oilers and their fans must not make the same mistake with Jordan Eberle. He and Arnott are very different players, but they are similar in the amount of hope and expectation they evoke in the fans. If Eberle goes on to score 30, 40 or 50 goals each season, everyone will be happy. But if he ends up as a 25-27 goal man, the most important thing will be to not chase him out of town because of a perceived decline. Arnott never topped 60 points with the Devils, but he also won the Stanley Cup.</span>Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-42488656477950463742016-11-20T11:05:00.001-08:002016-11-20T11:05:57.655-08:0011/20/16 Notes From A Five Game Skid<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.loripalminteri.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Top-Dog-The-Science-of-Winning-or-Losing.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.loripalminteri.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Top-Dog-The-Science-of-Winning-or-Losing.png" height="203" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">So the Oilers lost five straight games and a lot of fans jumped off the bandwagon. Understandably so, really. This team has a funny way of drawing you in and then crushing your hopes and defecating all over them. But this time, things are a little different.<span class="x_Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">When the Oilers have gone on winning streaks in the past, usually it involved a lot of lucky breaks and unsustainable underlying numbers. Losing streaks, typically, were more indicative of the kind of team that the Oilers really were. </span></span><span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: inherit;">Dig a little into the numbers behind <i>this </i>losing streak, however, and you find something interesting.</span><span class="x_Apple-converted-space" style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: inherit;"> </span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">The Oilers had a shooting percentage during that five game skid of just 4.62%, which is pretty abysmal. (8 GF on 173 shots, 34.6 shots per game)</span></span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">Over that same span, the team had a save percentage of 0.871, which once again is well below league average. (18 GA on 140 shots against, 28 shots against per game).</span></span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">This is where PDO comes into play. For those who don't know, PDO is the combination of team save percentage and shooting percentage. </span></span><span style="background-color: black; color: white;">It tends to regress toward a sum of 100 over long periods of time.</span><span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: black; color: white;">If league average shooting percentage is, say, 9%, then of course league average save percentage would be 91% (or 0.910).</span><span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: inherit;"> Anything below that could be considered unlucky, and anything above would be lucky.</span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">Really all you need to know is that over the five game losing streak, the Oilers had an all-situations PDO of 91.72, which we could consider exceptionally unlucky. The lowest even strength PDO in the league last year belonged to Carolina at 98.3.<span class="x_Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">But you could tell that they were unlucky just by watching the games. The other interesting thing is that the Oilers were controlling and, in many cases, dominating possession. During the losing streak they had 322 shot attempts to their collective opponents' 219. As a team the Oilers got 59.5% of all the shot attempts in those games.<span class="x_Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">As of this writing, the Oilers are 8th in the league in Shot Attempt Plus/Minus (5x5), and 11th in the league when the games are close. That means that they are controlling the flow of play pretty well, which is usually indicative of a good team over the long haul.<span class="x_Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: inherit;"><span class="x_s1">Our best guess at scoring chances is what </span><span class="x_s2"><a href="http://nhl.com/" target="_blank">NHL.com</a></span><span class="x_s1"> calls Unblocked Shot Attempts. Since a blocked shot was never going to go in, it's a better way of tracking actual chances to score. The Oilers are 7th in the league in USAT Plus/Minus.<span class="x_Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">There is a caveat to all this, though. A lot of these results are coming from times when the Oilers are trailing in games. We know that score effects come into play and when teams are leading they tend to give up more shots. When you give up goals in the first two minutes all the time, like the Oilers have lately, you have to work harder to catch up, and that might skew some of these numbers a little. However, the fact that the Oilers are performing well when trailing is also something to be pleased about.</span></span></div>
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<span class="x_s1" style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: inherit;">The biggest takeaway from all this is simple: the recent Oilers losing streak isn't a team regressing to being the terrible train wreck that they were all along. Unlike past years, the team played well enough to win those games and simply didn't. Really good teams tend to avoid stretches like that, but the Oilers have at least shown that their early success wasn't simply a mirage that the losing streak exposed. This is a decent team.</span></span></div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-81055711215530833962016-11-06T21:37:00.000-08:002016-11-06T21:37:49.702-08:0011/06/16 Odds & Ends: Are The Oilers For Real & Can They Make It?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://blogs.e-rockford.com/applesauce/files/2013/06/oe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://blogs.e-rockford.com/applesauce/files/2013/06/oe.jpg" height="320" width="283" /></a></div>
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Are you a believer? Here are a few thoughts on the hot start for the Oilers.</div>
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1) The Oilers didn't win their ninth game of the 2015-16 season until December 2nd in game 26. The year before that it took them until January 6th in game number 40! In the 2011-12 season, the Oilers started 9-3-2 by November 8th and proceeded to collapse, winning just 23 of 68 games the rest of the way.</div>
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2) In that 2011-12 season, the Oilers allowed 406 shots in those first 14 games (29 per game on average), but allowed just 20 goals against (a 0.950 Sv%). The team ended up -376 in shot attempts on the year. So far, the Oilers have allowed 400 shots on goal (30.8 per game) and allowed 31 goals (0.922 Sv%). Right now they're -29 in shot attempts.</div>
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3) What do all those numbers mean? There's certainly room for a collapse in the style of 2011-12, but things are a little better than that year. And let's be honest, they're winning almost 70% of the time right now. That'd be around 56 wins over a full year, which is the same amount that Washington had last season as the best team in the league.</div>
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4) It's difficult to gauge how many wins a team needs to make the playoffs. Last year, Minnesota took the last spot with just 38 wins and 87 points, but the year before that it took the Flames 45 wins and 97 points to lock up the final playoff spot in the West. Let's split the difference and say it may take in the neighborhood of 41 wins and 92 points to make the dance (41-31-10).</div>
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5) The Oilers would need to go 32-29-8 in their final 69 games to reach that mark. Doable? Maybe. That's a winning percentage of just 46%, which is a fair dip from where they are now.</div>
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6) What the Oilers really need to avoid is a stretch like last year when they went 7-16-5 from December 26th to February 26th. Winning 25% of the time for a third of the season would sink any hopes of playoff contention.</div>
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7) Speaking of playoff contention, 78 points got you tenth place in the West last season. The Oilers would need just 59 more points to get there. That'd be a record of, say, 25-35-9. I think it's fair to assume that the Oilers will be in the mix down the stretch, barring complete catastrophe.</div>
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8) The Oilers had just 31 wins last season, and they have gone seven seasons without cracking 35 wins (2008-09 was the last time with 38). Given that, if the Oilers manage to win 26 more times this year (37% of the time), it will represent a considerable milestone. That's more a measure of their long run of futility than an endorsement of their improvement, but hey, one step at a time.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-68445575820318201852016-07-05T22:58:00.000-07:002016-07-06T08:29:13.603-07:007/6/16 In Defense of Adam Larsson<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/89/files/2014/10/adam-larsson-nhl-new-jersey-devils-minnesota-wild-850x560.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/89/files/2014/10/adam-larsson-nhl-new-jersey-devils-minnesota-wild-850x560.jpg" height="262" width="400"></a></div>
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<span new="" quot="" roman="" serif="" style="color: white;" times="">By now you've probably read every statistical breakdown and opinion piece on Adam Larsson that you can find. You've probably made up your own mind about the trade, and my goal here is not necessarily to change it. What I do hope to do, however, is provide my perspective on why I don't believe the trade is quite as outrageous as some have said. </span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">Part of the reason I hope to do that is because<a href="http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2016/06/6292016-odds-ends-free-agent-edition.html"> I kinda wrote</a> that I would consider a Hall for Larsson swap... About two hours before the trade broke. Here are the reasons:</span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">REASON NUMBER ONE</span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">If you're anything like me, by now you've read comparisons between Adam Larsson and the best right-shooting defenders in the league. Sadly, Larsson does not fit into that very exclusive group - at least not yet. But the point is not that Larsson may get better, it's that those top pairing, right shooting defensemen don't get traded. The Oilers weren't getting one. No, not even PK Subban, who was traded for another player like him, which the Oilers lack. </span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">REASON NUMBER TWO</span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">Adam Larsson is in a sweet spot of his career that could pay off very big for the Oilers. He's young enough that he's not untouchable in a trade, but he's old enough that we know he is capable. He's on a very team-friendly contract for a long period of time, and many of those years should be his prime. They also happen to coincide with McDavid's prime years, and Larsson's contract may help them absorb McDavid's raise better than the big ticket of an established defender. There aren't many players in the league that fit that description; even fewer could be acquired in a trade. </span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">REASON NUMBER THREE</span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">The player that you would consider to be fair value for Hall wasn't getting traded for Hall. There was probably never going to be a Hall for Ekman-Larsson swap, or Hall for Pietrangelo, or Hall for Subban. Those players would leave gaping holes that Hall simply does not fill. There was no getting the Taylor Hall of defense in exchange for Taylor Hall. Also, the Oilers have had a tendency during the last decade to hold on to players when they have value, and trade them when their value is at its lowest (think Hemsky, Perron, Gagner, Petry, Dubnyk, etc). Does that mean you have to trade Taylor Hall? Not necessarily, but Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins don't have the kind of cache around the league that they once did. Even in Edmonton the bloom has come off the rose a bit with Eberle, so imagine the rest of the league's perspective. They probably could have traded him for a lot when he scored 30 goals and 70+ points, but that ship has sailed.</span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">REASON NUMBER FOUR</span><br>
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<span style="color: white;">The Oilers shifted their strength from left wing to right defence. From a purely positional standpoint, that's an improvement. Larsson doesn't give you on defense what Hall does from the wing, but this team could barely be called a team at all because of the lack of balance on the roster. At some point, one of the big names had to be shifted for some help on D. <i>The optimal time may have passed already </i>but it still needed to be done. That's not Chiarelli's fault, per se, but he'll deal with the consequences.</span><br>
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CONCLUSION<br>
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The Oilers lost this trade, in a vacuum, no question. Hall > Larsson. However, there is the beginning of a team here. At least I think so, you may disagree.Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-19721983562671821382016-06-29T11:19:00.000-07:002016-06-29T11:19:28.327-07:006/29/2016 Odds & Ends: Free Agent Edition and Trade Talk!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.trendingplayers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/lucic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.trendingplayers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/lucic.jpg" height="225" width="400" /></a></div>
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This time of year turns all of us grown-up NHL fans into little kids on Christmas Eve. Some day there will be blogs written by eight-year-olds predicting what presents are going to be under the tree. If there aren't already, I dunno, I didn't check. In the meantime, you'll have to settle for a bunch of thoughts on trades and free agency.</div>
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Milan Lucic and Taylor Hall</h2>
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Gene Principe <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/milan-lucic-denies-reached-agreement-oilers/">tweeted </a>that he has two sources who claim Lucic to Edmonton is basically a done deal. Of course, in true Lucic fashion, the player shot back that the report is "bullshit". I know we've been saying this for, oh, the last eight year or so, but the Oilers are a team on the rise. At least they're on the right side of the development curve as compared to Vancouver. That should give them an edge over Lucic's home town. Lucic fits nicely with what Chiarelli is trying to build, but does that make Taylor Hall expendable? </div>
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Over their careers, Lucic has averaged 0.61 points per game, which makes him about a 50-point player. Hall, meanwhile, has averaged 0.86 p/g, making him about a 70-point player. What's more, Hall is much more likely to carry that production forward for the next four years (the term left on his deal, which will expire when he's the same age Lucic is now). </div>
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However:</div>
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Taylor Hall is a winger. You can't keep all your shiny toys and hope to ever build a balanced roster. If the right deal is there, signing Lucic and trading Hall makes some sense. The right deal might actually materialize, too, because Hall is special. Normally a GM would have to be an idiot to trade a very good defeseman for a winger, but it changes things when that winger happens to be one of the very best in the game. A Taylor Hall trade may not see you get exactly one-to-one value, but the difference is made up in the positional upgrade.</div>
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Hall has averaged almost nineteen minutes per game for the Oilers over his career, but if he's not scoring he's not necessarily doing much in that time. He isn't really breaking up the cycle or grinding the opposition in the corner. He has averaged only eight seconds of PK time over his career (I know, I was surprised too).</div>
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Don't get me wrong, I love what Hall brings. I even <a href="http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2015/01/011615-don-trade-taylor-hall.html">argued against trading him</a> at least once - hell, I even named the article "Don't Trade Taylor Hall"! But McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi and potentially Lucic have changed that position somewhat. Nobody on this team except #97 will get you the return that Hall will, and in terms of importance wingers come last. It might be time to think it over.</div>
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Adam Larsson Trade</h2>
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I was listening to Bob Stauffer yesterday, and he was hinting at the Oilers trading for New Jersey's Adam Larsson. Funny how things go. The Oilers could have had Larsson at the 2011 draft, and now they could conceivably trade the player they took - Nugent-Hopkins - for the defenseman. On the other hand, RNH may not be enough, which brings us back to Hall.</div>
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Adam Larsson is 6'3", 205 lbs, shoots right, and averaged over 22 minutes per night last season. He <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=N.J&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#">didn't get buried</a> possession-wise, despite starting in the the offensive zone only 30.5% of the time(!) and playing the toughest competition. His partner, Andy Greene, <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1526&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5">didn't seem to be carrying him</a>, either. He was a plus-15 if you're into that sort of thing, threw 163 hits, and blocked 148 shots (both good for second on the Oilers). And he's only twenty-three.</div>
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The Devils were last in Goals For this past season, they only had two players over 20 goals (actually, they both had 30), and nobody over 60 points. They need scoring badly but they're not exactly brimming-over with defensemen, either. I don't see Larsson getting traded to any team, but he's a perfect fit for the Oilers. This is the type of player that I personally would consider giving up Hall for. You lose a lot offensively (Larsson had just 18 points), but you gain in every other area. </div>
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Demers</h2>
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What's it going to take to sign Jason Demers? The player is just fine; he's not ideal but he's perfectly serviceable. But somebody is going to offer him a boatload of cash, and I hope it isn't the Oilers. Granted, the Oilers need help on the blueline, but he's going to give you what, 30 points? I realize I just made the opposite argument with Larsson, but that's because Larsson is signed for another five years at just over $4 million. Demers' cap hit was already approaching that number, so where's he going to end up now? I just wanted to officially note that I'd be cautious about giving the guy too much money so that later I can say I told you so to someone.</div>
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Shattenkirk Hopes To Be Traded</h2>
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Kevin Shattenkirk has <a href="https://www.nhl.com/news/trade-seems-imminent-for-blues-kevin-shattenkirk/c-281080370">said</a> through his agent that he hopes he'll get traded soon. So that's neat. Right shot, 6 feet, 202, good possession numbers, about a 48-point player. The Blues need scoring because, despite their strong success, they were just middle of the pack in Goals For. After Tarasenko there isn't much to break a game open offensively. Since they're going to be trading Shattenkirk anyway, it would make sense to try to add something that could help them get over that hump. Another excellent fit for the Oilers, who should be right in the middle of everything over the next couple of weeks.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-53078153128520275312015-12-13T10:00:00.000-08:002015-12-13T15:47:25.224-08:0012/13/15 Points: Can They Make It?<div>
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<a href="https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4335321/6a01310f9ede0b970c017d425aaafc970c.0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4335321/6a01310f9ede0b970c017d425aaafc970c.0.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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The Edmonton Oilers find themselves just two points out of a playoff spot on Sunday morning. Most fans are rightfully happy just to still be hanging around. But is it possible that the Oilers will actually make the playoffs this year? The short answer is yes, it's possible.</div>
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Let's take a quick examination of the numbers. Last year, Calgary locked up the last playoff spot in the west [grumble] with 97 points, and a record of 45-30-7. To reach 97 points this year, the Oilers would need a record of something like 30-13-9 over their last 52 games. That's a tall order (57.6% winning percentage) for any team, especially one that has won just 43.3% of the time so far. But things don't end there.</div>
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The Pacific Division is weak, which has allowed the Oilers to hang around. The third place team, Vancouver, currently has a worse W/L record than the Oilers. Hooray, loser point! They're also on pace for just 82 points - a significant drop off from Calgary's total last year. To better that record, the Oilers would need to finish 23-20-9 (or thereabouts). Moreover, twenty-one of the Oilers' last 52 games are against division rivals, including, critically, three each against San Jose and Calgary<br />
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Arizona, the second place team at the moment, is also just a .500 team and it has some real underlying trouble. And it's in the underlying numbers where we find that the division is wide open.</div>
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At 5x5, the LA Kings are running away with the league, nevermind the division, in Corsi For %. Anaheim also has good possession numbers, but they can't score (4.9% team shooting percentage, the lowest in the league). Over time that should even out, and Anaheim is still good enough to finish second in this bad division, but they won't make up the difference on LA. But that third spot is up in the air.</div>
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Arizona is pitiful in possession, 28th in the league in CF%. However, they're riding the best 5x5 shooting percentage in the NHL right now, and still they're just breaking even in the standings. What's more, they're minus-14 in GF/GA. When those hot hands stop filling the net, which they will, expect the Coyotes to sink like a stone.</div>
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Vancouver, meanwhile, is 24th in the league in CF% and their PDO (the best way we know to measure how lucky a team has been) suggests that the Canucks simply are what they appear to be. The underlying numbers don't seem to indicate that they're any worse than the team that has won 36.6% of the time so far, but they're probably not any better than that, either.</div>
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The three remaining teams, San Jose, Edmonton and Calgary, are 13th, 20th and 21st respectively in CF%, with almost no daylight between the Oilers and Flames.</div>
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So far, the Flames have enjoyed the sixth-highest 5x5 shooting percentage in the league, but they've been bad because they can't get a save. The Oilers' team shooting percentage is 12th-best and the Sharks' is 16th. All three teams are in the bottom four in 5x5 save percentage, with Calgary at the very bottom of the league.</div>
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If things remain relatively equal in net for the three teams, then offense will probably make the difference between who makes the playoffs and who doesn't. <span style="font-family: "helvetica neue light" , , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;">That is, of course, where Connor McDavid comes in, and it makes his injury even more unfortunate for the Oilers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue light" , , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;">The positive side, on the other hand, is that McDavid will play again this season, just as the Oilers will need a boost in their scoring. The key will be to stay within striking distance of that final playoff spot until McDavid returns, and Anders Nilsson appears to have something to say about that. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue light" , , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Nilsson is closing the gap of the Oilers' luck this year. Even with his recent performances, this team is near the bottom of the league in save percentage at even strength. If he can keep this going and pull the team to a respectable average, it may be the Oilers and not the Flames who zero in on the Sharks for that final playoff spot.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue light" , , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;">We've seen that things don't always follow the numbers perfectly in practice, but the picture they're painting is of a mediocre Oilers team in a very bad division. That may be enough.</span></div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-57693472348954685272015-11-29T12:18:00.001-08:002015-11-29T12:18:19.751-08:0011/29/15 Odds & Ends: Predictions, Trade Talk, Goaltending<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://wpmedia.edmontonjournal.com/2015/11/edmonton-alta-october-31-2015-goalie-cam-talbot-33-i.jpeg?quality=55&strip=all&w=840&h=630&crop=1" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://wpmedia.edmontonjournal.com/2015/11/edmonton-alta-october-31-2015-goalie-cam-talbot-33-i.jpeg?quality=55&strip=all&w=840&h=630&crop=1" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
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Fun fact: the Edmonton Oilers are tied in the standings with the Calgary Flames. Except the Oilers have a minus-12 goal differential, compared to Calgary's minus-31 (which is the worst in the league).<br />
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Am I bitter about Calgary making the playoffs last year? You bet I'm not. They missed out on a chance at McDavid, which the Oilers promptly exploited. However, I won't say that I'm not enjoying Calgary coming back down to earth. Which bring us to the first point of the day: things even-out over the long haul.<br />
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Last year, Calgary's Corsi-For % was 44.5. See it? Way down near the bottom of <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=CFPCT&sortdir=DESC">the chart</a> there? Their even strength possession numbers were actually below Edmonton's, but of course Calgary made the playoffs, Bob Hartley was coach of the year, and the Flames were a team bound to take a step forward this season.<br />
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Yeah. And monkeys might fly out of my butt<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOKociU8t_Q">.</a><br />
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There are still many people who don't believe in these fancystats, but more and more we're seeing their predictive power in action. Patrick Roy won the Jack Adams Award in 2014, and <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=713046">apparently he really deserved it</a>, except that Colorado was just a flawed but lucky team. Their Corsi-For was at 47% that year, yet they managed 52 wins. Since then their possession numbers have continued to be at or near the bottom of the league, and as of this writing they have just 48 wins in their last 105 games.<br />
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Corsi-For % is not a be-all-end-all, as the Oilers proved last year. To watch the Oilers and Flames of last season and compare their underlying numbers is to truly understand the limitations of the metric. Nobody would ever have argued that the Oilers were more competitive than the Flames last season, and yet those pesky numbers persist.<br />
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This year, perhaps, the worm has turned.The Oilers have often looked more competitive, engaged, and they've even been <a href="http://oilersnation.com/2015/11/24/edmonton-s-defence-and-the-washington-capitals">accused of having structure</a>. The goal differential is improved, and their possession numbers are in <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5&sort=CFPCT&sortdir=DESC">the middle of the pack</a>. For those reasons, I'm comfortable predicting that the Oilers will play .500 hockey from here onward. That means that they'll finish with a record of something like 33-39-10.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Games Decided By Goaltending</span><br />
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It's pretty clear that the Oilers have had the crappy end of the stick as far as luck goes this season. But how bad has it been?<br />
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Anders Nilsson has been above <a href="http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_SavePercentage.php">NHL average save percentage</a> seven times, with four of his five wins in those outings. Cam Talbot has been above average just four times, none of which have come after October 21st. The starting goalies have been above average less than half the time, and sub-.900 in eleven starts combined.<br />
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Including the win against Pittsburgh, Oilers goalies have combined for a save percentage of just 0.896, while their opponents have combined for a save percentage of 0.912. There have also been games that could have been decided by one shot (Hall vs Chicago, McDavid vs LA, Talbot allowing the winner against Calgary).<br />
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So far, Nilsson is the surprise number one. Let's hope he pulls a Miikka Kiprusoff and comes out of nowhere to be one of the league's elites.<br />
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This line of observation is also part of my earlier prediction. Goaltening is hard to forecast, but given the track record of a guy like Talbot, it wouldn't be surprising to see him play just okay for the rest of the year, which would be an improvement. With the underlying shot metrics, average should be enough for this team to improve.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Trade Me, Please</span><br />
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I'm sure Peter Chiarelli is secretly willing to move heaven and earth to get a player like Travis Hamonic. However, the same was probably true (at the time) about Cam Talbot, and Chiarelli ended up giving a lot less than many predicted.<br />
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I believe that the Travis Hamonic trade is going to surprise a lot of people in how little the Islanders get back. It's often said that when you're trading the best player in a deal, you lose the deal. That cannot be helped here. No team with a player comparable to Hamonic (Klefbom, Nurse et al) is going to give up such a player to get Hamonic. That won't be necessary, and Snow's rivals know it.<br />
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On the Oilers' side of things, Mark Fayne seems like a good start to me. He's young enough (28), has two years left on a similar cap hit to Hamonic, and he's a right-shooting defenseman. Madness, you may say, but hear me out. Fayne (or someone like him) is the kind of player that's going to go back to the Islanders for Hamonic. There are a limited number of Western teams that the Islanders can deal with. Beyond that, it's hard to imagine a team trading a Hamonic-type for Hamonic, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/why-the-jets-should-trade-tyler-myers-for-travis-hamonic/">unless it's Tyler Myers</a>, which means that the package will be a lesser defenseman plus other assets.<br />
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Of course the Islanders are going to come out and say that they won't give Hamonic away. That doesn't mean they're going to get what they really want.<br />
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The Islanders also have to think about replacing Kyle Okposo, who is a UFA this year. Okposo's salary is $4.5 million, which means there are some options available to any team looking to poach Hamonic from the Islanders. Edmonton may be uniquely positioned to give up a combination of assets for a player who could round out the defense in a big way.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Go Esks Go</span><br />
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That is all. *plops down on the couch with snacks and beer*</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-16104481844046084712015-11-01T00:33:00.000-07:002015-11-01T00:33:38.537-07:0011/1/15 October Revisited<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.rantsports.com/nhl/files/2015/10/Cam-Talbot.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.rantsports.com/nhl/files/2015/10/Cam-Talbot.jpg" height="225" width="400" /></a></div>
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I paid money to go to the Halloween game. I even got the wife into my old Oilers jersey from the '06 run. We were so cute it was horrifying; truly a deep Halloween costume. I was feeling a comeback there, but it didn't go well. Neither did October. Let's review.</div>
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A few days ago I was putting together a post about the statistical differences between the first ten games last year and the first then this year. By eye I honestly expected to find that the Oilers were better this year than last, but the numbers didn't bear that out. At all. I scrapped the post because I felt there was no need to pile onto this team. It's clear that the Oilers aren't there yet. Who needs more numbers?</div>
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In many ways, the Halloween game was a microcosm of the season so far. Offensively the pieces are there, but in the defensive zone the team is a mess. I'm reminded of the 2007-08 season when it was clear that the team didn't have the personnel to break out of the defensive zone, and they ended up bringing in Lubo to shore it up. Too bad they didn't really have the depth to absorb the loss of Stoll and Greene.</div>
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I felt that Leon should have made this team out of camp, but I also see the cap constraints and development potential that left him in the AHL. I'm less disheartened by the fact that he started in the American League than I am encouraged that he seems to have found his scoring touch at the next level. </div>
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I'm a fan of Brandon Davidson as a story, and as a player too, to a certain extent, but the fact that he's playing 20 minutes against the arch rivals is a tell to end all tells. The Oilers are painfully weak back there. Davidson brings some nice things, but I saw him get lost on the defending part more than once. What's more, Flames players literally skated around Andrew Ference like he was barely there, which isn't to say that he was never good, but he's not good any more. He cannot keep up, full stop.</div>
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On the positive side, I see shades of Keith and Seabrook in Nurse and Klefbom. I'm not suggesting those Oilers will necessarily ever reach those heights, or that they're even the same kind of players, but when the Blackhawks signed Brian Campbell they did it without knowing just how good their two young studs would become, and that sunk them in cap hell. Feels a lot like where the Oilers are now. With that said, those young Oilers are nowhere near complete.</div>
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The Oilers came out of last October 4-5-1, but it was also clear that everyone - the fans, the players, the media, the bloggers - had had enough of the old regime. 4-8-0 feels better under these circumstances than 4-5-1 ever did. The Oilers also proceeded to win four games over the next <b>two months </b>(4-17-7), and I think we can say that barring disaster we won't get there again.</div>
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As we all know, the biggest problem with this team is the defense. Over $11 million in more-or-less dead money becomes available in the off season after Nikitin, Purcell and Scrivens go bye-bye, and perhaps more if they dump Ference. But guess what? There's not much help available in free agency. There isn't even a Sheldon Souray to hang your hat on (no offense to Souray, but the Oilers were swinging for the fences before he inked his deal). The only big name worth considering is Dustin Byfuglien, and even though I love the way his name is spelled, I'd hate to be typing it for the long term when he's about to turn 31 in March. Keith Yandle, Dan Hamhuis, and Christian Erhoff are risky for the same reason. The league has started to figure out that they need to hang on to players for dear life, and the players have realized that there isn't as much incentive to go to free agency in a cap world as there once might have been.</div>
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So we're left with a trade. In the next year, Peter Chiarelli is going to make a trade that will alter the course of this team for the long haul. I wrote the same thing <a href="http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2011/09/092811-trade-that-will-define.html">almost word-for-word</a> back in September of 2011 when Tambellini was running this team. I truly expected the GM to see that a big move was the only way to make the team complete, and it never materialized. I don't think any of us see this going the same way now. Chiarelli has shown a willingness to move important players, and frankly that's what the organization needs.</div>
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Remember that sense of entitlement that has crept in over the years? It could be because nobody is untouchable. I'm not saying the Oilers need to blow it up, but they need to give in order to receive what they really need, and that will simultaneously send the message that no individual is above the team <i>as a whole</i>.</div>
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Todd McLellan says all the right things. Overall, I love him as a coach, and what he has said about this team is a breath of fresh air in our stale crypt of an NHL town. But accountability doesn't just come from the coach. I'm not saying you trade players just to send a message, but when you trade an important player to get something you desperately need, the message comes through to everyone. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake. What we need is results.</div>
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None of that is going to happen right away. I don't fault Chiarelli for not fixing the problems all at once, because not only has he got to evaluate players he's not familiar with, but he is also handcuffed by abhorrent contracts from the previous regime. But he has also seen the same things that you and I have seen. And unlike years past, you can bet that the talking points haven't gone unnoticed.</div>
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The question is: what's next?</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-21331541418291147742015-10-26T14:30:00.000-07:002015-10-26T14:30:05.959-07:0010/26/15 A Nail Yakupov Revival<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Nail Yakupov is off to a very fast start. His best ever, as a matter of fact,</div>
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Last season, Yakupov didn't score his eighth point until December 7th, in his 27th game. By then, he was already minus-11. He had eight points by November 19th in the 2013-14 season, in his 21st game, and he was a minus-14. As a rookie, the young man who was already known as Yak City scored his eighth point in his tenth game, and he was a minus-6.</div>
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It's still early days of this new season, but Connor McDavid seems, somewhat unsurprisingly, to be just the tonic that Yakupov needed.</div>
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After two years of trending in the wrong direction, Yakupov seems to be grabbing the opportunity and turning his career back around. I know we're way beyond plus/minus in the stats world, but in Yakupov's case it seems to tell a bit of a truthful tale. He struggled mightily in the last two seasons and posted minuses in the 30s in each year, but after nine games of 2015-16 he's a plus-1. That's something that's never happened for him before in the early going,</div>
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Yakupov is on pace for over 70 points, which seems a bit lofty considering what we know about the player. His 5x5 on-ice shooting percentage of 11.67 is <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=32&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f7=5-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#">80th among NHL forwards</a> who have played at least five games. For some context, that on-ice shooting percentage would have been 7th-highest among every NHL forward who played at least 40 games last year. So we're looking at a bit of a lucky streak.</div>
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But is a final total of, say, 20-25-45 over a full season out of the question for Yakupov? Even those modest numbers would make for his best offensive output to date. Strip away his draft position and it's clear that that's very valuable secondary scoring from a player making just $2.5 million.</div>
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I don't want to get too ahead of myself though. By eye, it seems like the player is enjoying the game again, and that's almost as nice to see as the scoring touch returning. Let the good times roll.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-63068644573999253952015-09-12T15:19:00.001-07:002015-09-15T10:34:16.961-07:0009/12/15 Forecasting the Oilers' 2015-16I know we're almost into training camp already but I wanted to reserve judgement on the Oilers' off season until it seemed that all the moves had been made. Here are some final thoughts and predictions on a number of items.<div><br></div><div>1) Will The Oilers Make The Playoffs?</div><div><br></div><div>There are a wide range of predictions when it comes to the Oilers' finish this year. Connor McDavid changed the perception of the team in a big way, but let's not put the cart before the horse. Of the eight Western Conference playoff teams last year, I could see the Oilers jumping ahead of only Calgary and Vancouver. Unfortunately, they still have to contend with Los Angeles, Dallas, Colorado and San Jose. The Oilers were 27 points behind the worst of those teams last year (SJS), so when the music stops I don't see them having a chair. Put another way, a 30 point improvement to 92 points would still only have been good for tenth place last year. It's a huge leap to get all the way to the post season.</div><div><br></div><div>2) How Did Peter Chiarelli Do?</div><div><br></div><div>Connor McDavid doesn't count when it comes to evaluating front office performance this off season, because it was a no-brainer pick that the Oilers got for being incompetent. However, Chiarelli did some nice things in my mind. He identified an available goaltender who was probably the best bet to become a starter and didn't overpay for him. He was in on Dougie Hamilton but didn't overpay for <i>him</i>, and those two things somewhat offset his overpayment for Griffin Reinhart. Reinhart is just slightly too young to be what the Oilers really needed, but he fits the age range. Even if he tops out as a #3 it's a good addition, especially because this team will be so top-heavy in salaries up front. Even if you lack a true number one, you can win with a bunch of twos and threes. I like the addition of Sekera too, of course, but he only replaces Petry. That's not a knock on Chiarelli though, because when you take over from incompetent people you need to start by undoing what they have done. Adding Sekera seemed to be the start of that.</div><div><br></div><div>3) How Many Points Will McDavid Get?</div><div><br></div><div>Here's another one with a wide range of theories. McDavid may be a Crosby-like talent or better, but scoring is down in the NHL and the Oilers haven't exactly set the world on fire offensively of late. There was a pretty large spike in power play opportunities and goals per game across the league in Crosby's rookie reason, due in large part to rule changes. Both numbers have since dropped off. Even more interesting, league average save percentage in 2005-06 was just 0.901 and has gradually risen to 0.915 last year. The Penguins scored 243 goals in Crosby's rookie season, which was 18th in the league. Last year, the highest scoring team was Tampa Bay with 259 goals. The Oilers had just 193.</div><div><br></div><div>Crosby was involved in 42% of Penguins goals in 2005-06, but he also played over 200 minutes more than the next-highest forward on his team, and almost 500 more minutes than the fourth-highest forward. We know that the distribution of ice time will be different in Edmonton because of the number of weapons the Oilers have. I'm going to be somewhat generous and assume the Oilers will jump to 220 GF, even though league average scoring has been stable for the last four years. Let's also assume that McDavid will get plenty of opportunity, while acknowledging the other players that will need to get ice time. Could McDavid be involved in as much as 30% of Oilers goals? In this scenario McDavid would finish with around 66 points. I'm guessing that's the range we should expect.</div><div><br></div><div>4) How Many Games Will Darnell Nurse Play?</div><div><br></div><div>The Edmonton Oilers have been one of the NHL's most injured teams since the 2009-10 season. If that trend continues, and we have no reason to believe that it won't, then it won't be long before the Oilers are forced to use all the best players they have. Even if Nurse doesn't make the team out of camp, I'd say he'll be in the lineup before November ends and there's a good chance he'll stick after that. I'm going to guess that he gets into 60 games and is among the league's top ten rookies.</div><div><br></div><div>5) How Many Games Will The Oilers Win?</div><div><br></div><div>Last year the Oilers won their tenth game on January 9th, 42 games into the season. They lost 20 of 21 games from November 11th to December 27th. That's a quarter of the season with one win. If they can simply avoid going sideways for an extended period, as they have been prone to since 2009-10, they should be able to eke out a few more wins. The new coaching staff is going to make a big difference here. Even though the players would say otherwise in public, they seemed to tune out Dallas Eakins' tyrannical regime in a hurry. Also, the players aren't fools. They must have known the dysfunctional way that the team was being run. Change and stability will go a long way in not letting a few losses break them down mentally. Much will hinge on the goaltending as well. If everything breaks right, I could see 35-38 wins being realistic. </div>Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-22097441018492903832015-06-26T20:54:00.000-07:002015-06-26T20:54:00.419-07:0006/26/15 It Won't Go Down<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Crass? Maybe. True? Don't you lie.</div>
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The Calgary Flames tried to spoil our fun on Connor McDavid Day (as it shall be known henceforth and retroactively back to the fouding of Edmonton), but Chiarelli had a reply.</div>
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You have to wonder about the rationale of the Boston Bruins on this day. Dougie Hamilton's contract price must have been mighty high if the Bruins deemed him trade-worthy as a result, which is what we're now hearing. That's the player you build around, though, isn't he? So the Flames gave up #15, #45 and #52 for the future stud, which is the kind of deal you'd expect for the ninth overall draft pick that was originally used to select Hamilton, not the return on an established player of his calibre.</div>
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And then <a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/06/26/report-request-for-darnell-nurse-the-dealbuster-in-edmonton-oilers-bid-for-dougie-hamilton/">we hear that</a> the Oilers offered #16, #33 and #57 for Hamilton and the Bruins turned them down. From where I'm sitting, that's a better deal than what Boston ultimately accepted. That 33rd pick is hugely valuable. If it was bad blood between the Bruins and Chiarelli that caused them to turn it down, then that fanbase has been done a disservice. The job of the people running a team is to do the absolute best they can with what they have. The people managing the Bruins didn't do that today because of emotions or some such malarky. Maybe they'll be the new Oilers.</div>
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It's a good move for a Flames team that has decided to ramp up the arms race in the division in response to McDavid. Soon they won't be able to compete offensively with the Oilers (at least in theory), so it makes sense to build on their strengths.</div>
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The Oilers' reply to the move was to acquire Griffin Reinhart. I'm not nearly as down on this player as many seem to be. As an AHL rookie, Reinhart had the same type of offensive season as his draft year plus-1 with the Oil Kings - when he was well established in the WHL. He's no Dougie Hamilton, to be sure, but he's a strong prospect who fits into the age range of this new cluster without being completely green.</div>
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The trouble with dealing that 16th pick in this draft is that you can't get a guy who's <i>too</i> established. Old dudes need not apply. Also, when you acquire veterans you pay a premium for what they've done in the past and not necessarily what they'll do in the future, not to mention the premium dollars that are attached. These days I'm much too cynical about the Oilers to give any trade a free pass, but this one strikes me as making sense.</div>
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It's also interesting because the Oilers stuck to their guns about not dealing #16 for Cam Talbot. <a href="http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/05/talbot-might-be-new-schneider-if-he-is.html">This post</a> from Woodguy convinced me that Talbot is a solid target for the Oilers, even at a heavy price. Then, when Ottawa got a first round pick for Robin Lehner, I was sure that the price was set. However, Chiarelli's veteran savvy showed here, as he was able to guage the market and what he should have to give up. We'll see how things shake out on this front.</div>
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The Oilers suddenly find themselves incredibly stacked at center and in high-end defense prospects. It looks good on paper, but there's a lot more work to do. Oh, and there's the matter of that goalie...</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-75807815455846329522015-05-10T00:37:00.001-07:002015-05-10T20:18:43.952-07:0005/10/15 Learning To Love Again<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Optimism is a foreign feeling for Oilers fans. It's certainly strange for me. It's a bit hard to believe now but this blog started out with a very optimistic view of things in Oilerland, and slowly transitioned to bitter cynicism. I have to admit that emotionally I'm having trouble figuring out where to go from here.</div>
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McDavid is heaven sent, of course, but I think getting MacTavish out of the driver's seat will be more important in the long run. I respect Craig MacTavish, just like everybody else, but seeing him removed along with Kevin Lowe felt like... well, it felt like this:</div>
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But then we got word that MacTavish is going to be number two under Chiarelli, and we still haven't heard anything about Scott Howson. On one level this makes perfect sense. Being an outsider, Peter Chiarelli is tasked with figuring out the Oilers' entire organization while going into a very important draft and off season. Firing the people who have key information wouldn't make sense.</div>
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Oilers fans know all that on an intellectual level, but there's still that nagging bug in our ears that says: MacTavish is still part of the decision-making process, and Lowe wasn't <i>fired</i>, he was shuffled around again.</div>
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It's going to take action from Chiarelli to silence the doubt -- actions like seeing Justin Schultz for what he is, getting rid of Ference and Nikitin, and hanging on to good but unpopular players. We won't get all the answers we need right away. However, each move that shows a departure from the old ways will make the entire hockey world feel better.<br>
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I wish things hadn't played out this way, because all the very good things that are happening feel just a little tainted. I suppose when the general manager being demoted is a good thing, there are bound to be mixed emotions. Oilers fans were writing open letters that sounded like breakup notes, which is a measure of the commitment we all feel. It's a silly cliche to care this much about a hockey team, but we do. Hunkering down in a warm place to watch an Oilers game instills a strong sense of community, especially when the games matter. If not for hockey, what on earth would you look forward to in November? Or January?<br>
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It's been a long time, but I remember freezing my butt off fortyish times a year to watch the Oilers play. I remember the sweet relief of reaching the entrance to the arena and the warmth of the foyer after walking from the car. I remember the couple we sat next to every game. It's as vivid as if it happened yesterday. Canadian hockey fandom is a meme, but it's impossible to overstate the connection it creates. Rememeber how everyone was your best friend in 2006?<br>
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And it's precisely that attachment we feel that makes it hard to trust again. Even if it's not Mike Babcock, the Oilers are probably on the verge of getting a great new coach, they have a winning and experienced GM, and Connor-freaking-McDavid. So why don't things feel like they're going to be okay? I want them to be. But we'll see.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-57161050963166270362015-04-21T23:51:00.000-07:002015-04-21T23:51:27.285-07:0004/21/15 Bottoms Up: The Kool-Aid Kid<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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OH YEAH!</div>
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Many people think Connor McDavid will be better than Sidney Crosby, including <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/gretzky-agrees-mcdavid-is-better-than-crosby/">a guy who should know</a>: Wayne Gretzky. Some may say that Craig MacTavish is the luckiest man in hockey. Considering the back-to-back 28th finishes, the worst season in team history, the reversal of his "bold" rhetoric, and the growing apathy among the fans, MacTavish is certainly lucky to have backed into the magic bullet savior. But he's not the luckiest man in hockey. No, that honor falls to the team's owner, Daryl Katz.</div>
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After all, MacTavish's job gets easier with a talent like McDavid about to enter the fold, but it also comes with enormous pressure and Bob Nicholson breathing down his neck.</div>
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Katz, on the other hand, just got the one piece that can bring all the fans back. Just in time for his new arena; just as fans were no longer bothering to go to games. There's no danger of interest in season tickets declining now. Anybody who has ever bled blue and orange is back in line for a serving of the kool-aid -- even the most bitter and disenchanted of us.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Caring and Feelings and Stuff</span></div>
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To be honest, I haven't really given a damn about the Oilers in two years. MacTavish's lineup heading into his first season at the helm left much to be desired, <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/9/24/4765152/growth-and-change-mactavish-tambellini-oilers-forward-depth">and seeing the same old, same old</a> really took the wind out of my sails. Well, that and being out of playoff contention by the end of October. I salute the many fans who watched the last two Oilers seasons. You deserve McDavid more than I.</div>
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I hate the way this team has been managed, especially because of the guise of change when Tambellini was fired, followed by more of the same old incompetence. It only served to prove what we all knew: that the rot in the organization went deeper than Mr. Dithers, and it continues to this day.</div>
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But even I find myself hopeful for the first time in a long time. McDavid isn't just any piece, and he's being added for the low, low price of a draft pick. Many smart hockey people wouldn't trade Crosby for this pick. This changes everything.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">It Gets Easier</span></div>
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McDavid changes the depth chart of the organization, of course. He will single-handedly make the team better right away. But he does more than that.</div>
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A player of this caliber changes the perception of the team around the league. Trade targets with No-Trade Clauses, coaches, and free agents will no longer turn up their noses at the Oilers. At least not so easily. Connor McDavid opens a lot of doors that have been bolted shut in the past, and now suddenly all the fruits of the NHL are low-hanging ones.</div>
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It's encouraging to see that Bob Nicholson might offer some quality guidance and oversight to the way this team is run. We know our Oilers, though. There probably won't be any wholesale bloodletting among the management group. That makes McDavid even more important to Edmonton, because he makes the job easier for men who have shown that they can't do it right when it's hard. What's more, failure has become even less acceptable - if that's possible - which <i>should </i>mean that fans will soon enjoy either playoff hockey or change at the top of the organization.</div>
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I'm sincerely hopeful that this draft lottery marks the turning point for the franchise. Frankly, if this isn't it, I don't know what is. Many of us have been put off by Patience Kool-Aid, but here's to the kid. Bottoms up.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-55575398425072395692015-04-15T20:04:00.000-07:002015-04-15T20:04:55.333-07:0004/15/15 The Myth of the Nelson Turnaround & Other Thoughts<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Remember 2007-08, when the Oilers brought in the kids of the first rebuild, started 27-30-5, and then finished 14-5-1 in their last twenty games? Ah, the hopes we had then. We Oilers fans have been fooled by late-season improvements more times than I care to remember, and it's happening again.</div>
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I have nothing against Todd Nelson as a coach, and I'm not about to say that he shouldn't be the guy next year, but we need to temper our optimism about him just a smidge. Nelson was 17-22-7 solo to end the season, which is pretty good considering the sorry state of the roster. After taking the reigns at the end of December, Nelson won just a hair under 37% of his games.</div>
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That's fine and dandy except that the much-hated Dallas Eakins finished up last season with a record of 16-20-4 after December. That's a winning percentage of 40%. The beginning of both seasons were so poor that the second half couldn't help but improve.</div>
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I know Nelson made some strides with the powerplay and whatnot, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves in hailing him as the savior and burning Eakins at the stake. I didn't like Eakins much, but if Todd McLellan couldn't get that Sharks roster of his into the playoffs, then even he would have had no chance with the Oilers.</div>
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MacTavish's end of season press conference was mostly stock soundbites that we've all become accustomed to. However, I raised an eyebrow when he said that he hadn't gone through the exercise of comparing the roster he took over to the one he has now. He hasn't done that? What exactly has he been doing?</div>
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It seems to me that if I took over a team I would write out the organizational depth chart (or just go look at it on CapGeek when that was an option), figure out the weaknesses and then make upgrades. If MacTavish <i>had</i> gone through this exercise, he might have noticed how much he has been spinning his wheels since taking over. Jonathan Willis <a href="http://oilersnation.com/2015/4/14/showing-craig-mactavish-s-work">did a nice breakdown</a>, exactly as MacTavish described, and was underwhelmed. So was I when <a href="http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2014/12/121114-running-in-place.html">I did it back in December</a>.</div>
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I can't help but think that if MacTavish is not keeping track of the upgrades to his roster, that might be why the huge amount of turnover hasn't moved the dial at all. And I mean <i>at all</i>. Check out <a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/04/14/by-the-numbers-a-forensic-audit-of-another-edmonton-oilers-season-gone-off-the-rails/">this article by Bruce McCurdy</a> if you haven't already. The Oilers are worse than last year in almost every way, and going forward without Petry and Perron is only going to make the task more difficult.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dubnyk</span></div>
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I left a comment about Dubnyk in that Willis article linked above. The gist was that nobody could have foreseen Dubnyk turning it around this much, but MacTavish doesn't get a pass for trading him. His comments about "if you have to ask the question" came before Dubnyk's implosion, after a season where he had a 0.921 Sv%.</div>
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The problem with this organization is that it cannot assess talent properly. Just look to Nikitin, Ference, Grebeshkov, Schultz, or even David Clarkson. On the flip side, think of Anton Lander, Petry, Dubnyk, and so on. The Oilers keep undervaluing the good and overvaluing the bad. Devan Dubnyk and Justin Schultz are the two best examples of that I can think of. </div>
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Ironically, in <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/5/8/4313418/do-the-oilers-need-an-upgrade-in-goal">this article</a> in which I defended Dubnyk at the C&B, I said he would probably never be in the conversation for the Vezina. Whoops.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-33780677243962553342015-02-03T19:37:00.001-08:002015-02-03T19:37:53.481-08:0002/03/15 Odds & Ends: Six Dead Horses Get A Beating<div>
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<a href="http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/540/656/f26.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/540/656/f26.jpg" height="270" width="400" /></a></div>
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Here are six more topics you've read about before, but (hopefully) from a different viewpoint.<br />
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I have to start with Dallas Eakins because of his recent interview. There's a lot of backlash about the fact that Eakins didn't take any ownership for the complete disaster that was his tenure with the Oilers. Fair enough, I thought the guy was doing a bad enough job to deserve to be fired so he deserves some of the blame in my view. But there's one problem with that: he doesn't have a job anymore, and the people who hired him do.<br />
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I'm not going to say Eakins deserved more time - he struck me as a bit of a tyrant and I think that's showing with the body language of the team - but if you were hoping to land another job some day would you appear on the radio and go: "well, I completely screwed up a team that was ready to take the next step"?<br />
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Or would you say something like: "I thought I'd have more to work with"?</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">On Enforcers</span><br />
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I've been thinking about Luke Gazdic lately, and enforcers in general, and something came to mind: if you've built a team that needs Luke Gazdic to defend it, then you've built the team wrong. No offense to Gazdic the person, but if he's got a spot on an NHL team it's because it's a weak team.</div>
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On winning NHL rosters, <u>every player serves a purpose</u>; each man has some use in helping the team play better hockey. The idea behind an enforcer is that he allows other players to free-wheel around the ice without fear of getting hurt or intimidated, which is a fundamentally flawed rationale when it comes to team building. If the other eleven forwards can't function properly without an enforcer to protect them, then they can't function properly. That's why the enforcer is going the way of the dinosaur.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">An OEL Trade??</span><br />
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I've been reading about Oliver Ekman-Larsson perhaps being available. There's no way that's true, unless all the knocks to the head Don Maloney took as a player are finally coming home to roost. There might have been a time when an aggressive and smart team could have acquired OEL, but that time has passed. If it was somehow possible, I'd throw Eberle and the 2015 first round pick out there. That pick isn't likely to be first overall, but it would give Arizona a chance at two picks in the top five or so. Huge value for a rebuilding organization, plus a proven scorer with term and youth enough to be valuable to a rebuild.</div>
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When the Oilers' rebuild began, we all knew that there would be casualties if it meant building a balanced team. That time has come. But Ekman-Larsson isn't going anywhere.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Draft Position and Expectations</span><br />
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Being drafted first overall is a funny thing, because it's relative to the other players that are available. Would Yakupov have gone first overall in a draft that included Taylor Hall? Nathan MacKinnon? John Tavares? There's no way to know for sure, but it brings some interesting perspective to mind. Imagine that Yakupov was drafted third overall relative to his class, like Leon Draisaitl.</div>
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Draisaitl played 37 games for the Oilers right out of the draft, and had nine points. No big deal - he was a third overall pick, not ready for the NHL and everyone said so. Back to Junior he goes. Would Yakupov have benefitted from a demotion earlier in his career?</div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Draft position doesn't say as much about a player as we sometimes think. There was an automatic feeling that Yakupov would be in the NHL right out of the draft because the previous two first overall picks did it. I won't criticize the Oilers too harshly for falling into this trap, because I thought he could play in the NHL right away too. What's more, Yakupov had 9-11-20 in his first 37 games, which is over double Draisaitl's total. But Yakupov was far from a complete player when he was drafted, and unfortunately now he has to learn to be one in the world's best league.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Hidden Asset Value</span><br />
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I've said it before and I'll say it again: the Oilers keep getting the results of a rebuilding team because they keep behaving like a rebuilding team. That's why you don't trade a player like Boyd Gordon, or even David Perron.</div>
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Money aside, the bottom line of sports is something called "winning". <span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Asset management doesn't just come down to what you can get for player X. In Perron's case, there's some truth to the notion that the Oilers wouldn't want to re-sign him for more money, but how do you assign value to him helping the team get closer to making the playoffs next year? I'm not suggesting that Perron is the difference between making the playoffs and not making them, but he certainly helps next year. And if the Oilers are still sellers at next year's deadline, could they still get a second round pick for Perron? I think so, especially if the rest of the team were to be improved next year.</span></div>
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Boyd Gordon is similar. There's value for the Oilers in showing the rest of the league that they're not just going to continue a cycle of rebuilding. That's why UFAs and players with NMCs and NTCs won't come here.</div>
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When it comes to the Oilers, you have to talk in terms of what they <i>should</i> do and in terms of what you think they <i>will</i> do. They <i>should</i> hang on to good players like Gordon and Perron and Petry for next year, improve the team around them, and push hard for the playoffs. What they <i>will</i> do is maximize the value they can get for these players because they've accepted that they're still not going to be good enough next year. There's a clear divide there, but the latter course of action is why the team keeps failing to improve. Dennis King had a good line on the <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/radio/edmonton-1260/gregor-show-feb-3-hour-4-1.199083">Monday morning Lowdown with Lowetide</a>, saying (I'm paraphrasing here) that the Oilers don't have enough ingredients to make anything good for dinner, so they might as well throw out the bread too.</div>
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Oh, and do you remember when the Oilers decided to trade Kyle Brodziak? They spent the next several years trying to replace him, with more than one failed attempt. Let's not do it again with Gordon.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Roster Whac-A-Mole</span><br />
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Matt Hendricks is another player I would hang on to. It's hard not to like the guy, especially with the season he's having. His situation reminds me of Nick Schultz, though: I like the player but not the cost to acquire him. Devan Dubnyk is reviving his career, both on a poor team in Arizona and a good team in Minnesota. MacTavish's words that "if you have to ask the question, then you know the answer" are now infamous, but I don't see how they're any less true about Scrivens and Fasth than they were about Dubnyk.<br />
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I'm borrowing a <a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/07/27/can-edmonton-oilers-gaping-hole-at-centre-be-filled-from-within/">term from Bruce McCurdy</a> here, but the Oilers continue to play Roster Whac-A-Mole by filling one hole and opening another. That's inevitable when you build a team, but the problem is that the Oilers have traded a center and a goalie for two wingers (Gagner and Dubnyk for Purcell and Hendricks). MacTavish said he doesn't want to fill holes at the expense of opening others (<a href="http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpostprint.htm?id=34536">link</a>), and yet that's precisely what he has done.<br />
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MacTavish's moves aren't so bad individually, but when it comes to team building they're ugly. He strengthened the wing by weakening the all-important center and goalie positions, and then weakened the wing by trading Perron for a pick.<br />
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It goes back further, too. MacTavish strengthened the team's cap position by trading Horcoff, which weakened the center position (I know people will say Gordon replaced Horcoff, but then who replaced Belanger's role?).<br />
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The Oilers are strong on the wing and weak everywhere else, which is why they should be trading wingers <i>out</i>, not bringing more in at the expense of other positions.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-68182977327091090332015-01-16T13:01:00.000-08:002015-01-16T13:01:16.682-08:0001/16/15 Don't Trade Taylor Hall<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiSdtnWiAuIR5hogk20VQr9LUuchB-S_6qNWnOipeG3o3FHRW965mz-BZYsj0BD-IUIGbCyDkZekuTZJrLyW6P3r6__SHAAwbOphi4kOejAkvH4__Jbkz1rhStUst7_k9xZWakqaIs7YwV/s640/blogger-image-1527916456.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiSdtnWiAuIR5hogk20VQr9LUuchB-S_6qNWnOipeG3o3FHRW965mz-BZYsj0BD-IUIGbCyDkZekuTZJrLyW6P3r6__SHAAwbOphi4kOejAkvH4__Jbkz1rhStUst7_k9xZWakqaIs7YwV/s320/blogger-image-1527916456.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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I can't believe we're even talking about this, but it would be insane to trade Taylor Hall.</div>
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Admittedly, Hall is having a bad season by his standards, just like everyone else on the team. Half a decade of losing probably hasn't helped in that regard. But let's get down to the nuts and bolts of why you don't trade a player like Hall.</div>
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Here are Hall's even strength points per hour since he entered the NHL. His league ranking in brackets is based on all NHL forwards who played at least 30 games.</div>
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2014-15: 2.02 (81st)</div>
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2013-14: 2.91 (4th)</div>
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2012-13: 3.15 (6th)</div>
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2011-12: 2.07 (77th)</div>
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2010-11: 1.78 (158th)</div>
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Something's off this season (maybe a few things), but over the last two years Hall is one of the most elite point-producing forwards in the league. Even at his worst, as a rookie fresh out of the draft on a last place team, he was producing like a very good second line player.</div>
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Now let's look at his possession numbers. Corsi needs context, so below I've shown Hall's rank anong Oilers forwards (20 games played) in relative Corsi since he entered the league.</div>
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2014-15: 1st</div>
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2013-14: 6th</div>
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2012-13: 2nd</div>
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2011-12: 1st</div>
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2010-11: 1st</div>
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This is a bit crude, but it certainly shows how it's Hall who is driving the play for the Oilers. He's most often their best forward in terms of possession, except for last year when he led the team in scoring with 80 points in 75 games. </div>
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That offensive total last year is 1.07 points per game. Guess how many times a player has scored at least 1.05 points per game (45 games played) since 2005-06?</div>
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<a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2006&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=S&handed=&c1stat=games_played&c1comp=gt&c1val=45&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=gt&c2val=1.05&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points_per_game">127</a>. That's under 13 players per season on average.</div>
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I heard Paul Almeida on Lowetide's show today make a hilarious but sadly probable comment. What if the Oilers trade Hall for a top-six forward with some grit and a top-four defenseman? With another couple of pieces that's a good return, right? Except that the Oilers are about to lose Petry (top-four defenseman) and have already traded Perron (forward, grit)!</div>
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I hope the Oilers aren't stupid enough to trade Hall, but they keep reaching new levels of stupidity, so who knows.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-44655825183729499822015-01-13T21:04:00.000-08:002015-01-13T21:04:50.132-08:0001/13/15 Odds & Ends: More On Yakupov, Trading Gordon, Trading Marincin, Voracek's Year & More<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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A busy brain is the readers' gain! Here are eight more thoughts on the Oilers and around the NHL.</div>
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I'll start by officially throwing my hat into the "don't trade Boyd Gordon" ring. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Boyd Gordon is completely irreplaceable for the Oilers, because there's nobody in the organization who can do his job. It's as simple as that, because a trade or free agent signing to replace a player under contract for another year would make no sense at all.</div>
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Gordon being on the wrong side of thirty may worry some, but it shouldn't. The goal for the Oilers has to be winning next year, and Gordon's age shouldn't prevent him from helping the team do that in the short term. If the Oilers are somehow able to turn the corner, they should be thinking about re-signing Gordon at this time next year, not trading him.</div>
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Among NHL centers who have played at least 30 games, Gordon has <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=63&rs=t&f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f4=C&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#">the fourth-toughest zone start workload</a> in the league. He's starting in the offensive zone just 18.7% of the time at even strength. Dominic Moore has it the fifth-toughest, at 26.1%. Gordon is also facing <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=13&f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f5=EDM&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67">the toughest competition</a> among the Oilers' regular forwards.</div>
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He's totally irreplaceable, really by any means, and if the Oilers trade him they will just spend the next several years trying to find another Boyd Gordon.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Yakupov's Struggles</span></div>
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In <a href="http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2015/01/011015-problem-with-nail-yakupov.html">my previous article</a> about Nail Yakupov's struggle to find offense, I forgot to mention that his personal on-ice shooting percentage at even strength has dropped from 11.11% to 7.37% to 5.69% over his first three seasons. That last number especially is low, and his <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=34&f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f5=EDM&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#">957 PDO</a> suggests a player who has been quite unlucky this year. As we know, these things tend to turn around.</div>
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Don't let his mistakes trouble you too much, and the Oilers shouldn't focus on them too much either. This kid had 170 points in 107 OHL games, but he finished his junior career with a modest plus-13 rating. In his first year in Sarnia he was a minus-2(!) with 49-52-101 in 65 games. The Oilers had to know the player they were getting. I've said this before, but if they want to maximize his value they need to put him with some defensively sound forwards (like Derek Roy has been for him), and just let that horse run. Trying to turn him into something he's not is a recipe for the failure we've seen so far.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Signing Derek Roy</span></div>
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I've liked Derek Roy just as much as the next guy since he came to Edmonton, and even <a href="http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2014/09/090314-forecasting-oilers-2014-15.html">wished the Oilers had signed this player in the off season</a> rather than rushing Leon. But let's just wait and see before anybody jumps to re-sign the guy. I don't think Roy's phone is going to be ringing off the hook in the off season, and it's not like signing him to an extension right now is going to avoid the frenzy.</div>
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Small sample size is so deceptive with players. Remember how good Corey Potter looked early in his first season with the Oilers, and how poor he looked after he signed his extension? We need more games before making a call on Roy, and that goes for Klinkhammer as well.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Voracek Makes Howson Look Silly</span></div>
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Jakub Voracek is having one hell of a year in Philadelphia. With 17-35-52 in 43 games, he's leading the league as of this writing. Remember when Scott Howson traded him along with a pick that became Sean Couturier and another pick that became <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=121947">Nick Cousins</a>? Jeff Carter played 39 games for Columbus, scoring 15 goals. Voracek has already got 80 goals and counting for Philadelphia, not to mention Couturier's work. I understand why the move was made, but trying to have a goal-scoring center play with Rick Nash always seemed strange to me.</div>
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Anyway, that's Scott Howson for ya - our very own Senior VP of Hockey Operations.</div>
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Oh, and Voracek is making the Oilers look foolish in another way: he was picked one spot after Sam Gagner. I remain a Gagner fan, and I won't blame anyone for picking him over Voracek at the time, but if the Oilers flipped a coin at the draft they came out on the wrong end. Such has been their decade.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Fixing The Shootout</span></div>
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There's still debate about the way the shootout points system should be handled, even after all this time. I don't expect that the NHL would care what I think (I don't expect you to care either, but I'll tell you anyway!), but <a href="http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2011/09/092311-670-fixing-shootout.html">a few years ago I had an idea</a> that might work:</div>
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Award two points for a regulation or overtime win.</div>
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Award one point for an overtime loss.</div>
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<b>Award one point for a shootout win, and no points for a shootout loss</b>.</div>
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Why?</div>
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Both teams lose something if the game goes to a shootout, which makes them more likely to try to end the game in regulation, especially in a playoff race. Teams still get something for winning the shootout, leaving its relevance intact. This way the NHL would not have to revamp the points system entirely by introducing three points for a regulation win.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Trading Martin Marincin</span></div>
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This is a player whose name has been in <a href="http://oilersnation.com/2013/8/2/trading-marincin">trade discussions</a> for a while, even before he played an NHL game, and all the reasons that made it plausible then are still true now.</div>
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No player is untouchable, depending on the return, and if trading Marincin is the right thing to do then it is. The problem I have with it is that this is a player the Oilers drafted outside of the first round, and who has actually given them a return on their investment. He's inexpensive useful depth and unknown, mostly untapped potential at this point. I wouldn't be in any rush to move him unless it was part of a very significant upgrade to the here and now.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">The Tank Must End</span></div>
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I won't say that it's wrong for Oilers fans to cheer for losses and Connor McDavid, because if this blog had existed in 2009 you would have found a bunch of articles about the virtues of a Fall For Hall.</div>
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From December 3rd, 2009 to December 11th, 2009 the Oilers won five straight games on the road - and barely moved in the standings. It was then that I first felt that tanking for the future was the only way forward. The Oilers might have felt that way, too, because the team went on to win only one of their next 21 games, including zero in the month of January. We can certainly debate the wisdom of my thinking, and the wisdom of the men at the controls, but it did award the Oilers one of the best players in their history.</div>
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Having said that, I do think that it's time for the tanking mentality to end, McDavid or no McDavid. Rather than selling players off and hoping to lose, it'd be nice to see the Oilers try to win and convince them to stay. Maybe they'll convince others.</div>
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Which brings me to:</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">The Jeff Petry Conundrum</span></div>
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If it is Jeff Petry who wants out, and not Oilers management that wants to be rid of Petry, then the organization is in a tight spot. However, that doesn't mean that it's not management's fault. As Ryan Batty <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/1/5/7494967/oilers-trade-perron-didnt-want-to-be-here">pointed out</a>, saying that a player didn't want to stay is often just another way of saying that the team isn't worth playing for or caring about. That's on the people running the show.</div>
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But they can redeem themselves. It would be a mistake to simply trade Petry, as others have already stated in greater detail. Read <a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/01/07/it-would-be-a-bad-mistake-for-the-edmonton-oilers-to-trade-stalwart-d-man-jeff-petry/">this</a>, or maybe <a href="http://oilersnation.com/2014/11/18/the-oilers-must-sign-jeff-petry">this one</a>, or even <a href="http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/10/did-the-edmonton-oilers-see-the-game-jeff-petry-just-had">this</a>! This guy has got to come back if the Oilers hope to compete next season.</div>
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So because the Oilers can't offer Petry a winning team, they'd better offer him money. A lot of money. It could be that money <i>and</i> winning wouldn't be enough - maybe he wants to play closer to home, like in Detroit - and if that's the case I hope we hear about it after he's gone. But my sincere hope is that we don't hear that Petry left Edmonton because of dollars.</div>
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Nikita Nikitin has never shown as much as Petry, he's not a former draft pick of the team (although they gave one up to acquire his rights), and he got $4.5 million to be very sub-par. Is $5 million outrageous for Petry? I don't think so, especially on a shorter-term deal.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-78411382094136904342015-01-10T22:27:00.001-08:002015-01-11T11:05:18.865-08:0001/11/15 The Problem With Nail Yakupov<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://postmediaedmonton.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/nail-yakupov-celebration.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://postmediaedmonton.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/nail-yakupov-celebration.jpg" width="320"></a></div>
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Let me start by saying that this isn't going to be another article about how bad Nail Yakupov has been. Because he's a former first overall pick I never thought I'd be in this position, but this is a player that I'm really rooting for to find success. His strong game and two points against Chicago were a tall drink of water in an otherwise dry and cracked desert of a season.</div>
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But I am also interested in finding out what might be going wrong with his performance overall. Stats alone can't illustrate the problem, although I've pored over them and I'll show you what I've found. I've decided to take two approaches: the tangible statistical side, and the intangible mental side. Hopefully, we'll be able to better understand the problems with the player and how best to correct them. After all, this is a guy who scored 80 goals in 107 OHL games, not Patrik Stefan who had 16 goals 58 games in the now-defunct IHL.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">The Many Numbers Involved</span></div>
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Okay, so for all the stats nerds like me there are some interesting things to learn about Yakupov's career, but even if you don't normally give a damn about the numbers it's interesting to see what's going on from that angle. For context on the whole thing, let's see how Yakupov has produced:<br>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><u>Yakupov's Point Production (Per 60 Minutes)</u></b></div>
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<center>
<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>YEAR</b></td>
<td><b>EVEN STRENGTH</b></td>
<td><b>POWERPLAY</b></td>
<td><b>SHORTHANDED</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>2012-13</b></td>
<td>2.20</td>
<td>4.20</td>
<td>0</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>2013-14</b></td>
<td>1.43</td>
<td>2.63</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><b>2014-15</b></td>
<td>0.73</td>
<td>2.18</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</center>
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It's pretty clear that we're looking at a decline in production each season, which is nothing we don't already know. At first glance it appears that his powerplay production is the culprit, but his even strength Points/60 has actually dropped more. The question is: why?<br>
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<b><u>Yakupov's Most Common 5x5 Forward Linemates By Season</u></b></div>
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<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>2012-13</b></td>
<td>Sam Gagner</td>
<td>Magnus Paajarvi</td>
<td>Ales Hemsky</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>2013-14</b></td>
<td>Sam Gagner</td>
<td>Ryan Nugent-Hopkins</td>
<td>Jordan Eberle</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>2014-15</b></td>
<td>Mark Arcobello</td>
<td>Leon Draisaitl</td>
<td>David Perron</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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In each year, Yakupov played the most 5x5 minutes with the player on the left. Those saying that Yakupov hasn't had a fair shake in terms of linemates are correct this season. The quality of his forward linemates has plummeted this year; David Perron is a distant third behind Draisaitl. But what of 2013-14? The two best centers available and Jordan Eberle as linemates. A sophomore slump, perhaps?</center>
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<b><u>Yakupov's Most Common 5x4 Forward Linemates By Season</u></b></center>
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<center>
<table border="1">
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<tr>
<td><b>2012-13</b></td>
<td>Sam Gagner</td>
<td>Jordan Eberle</td>
<td>Magnus Paajarvi</td>
</tr>
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<td><b>2013-14</b></td>
<td>Ales Hemsky</td>
<td>Sam Gagner</td>
<td>David Perron</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>2014-15</b></td>
<td>Leon Draisaitl</td>
<td>David Perron</td>
<td>Teddy Purcell</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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It's a similar story to the even strength linemates. Yakupov got some good linemates last season but has had a major drop off this year. The powerplay is clicking at just 13.7% this year, which is a drop from 17% last year and 20.1% the year before that.</center>
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<b><u>Oilers Goals For By Year, and Yakupov's Contributions</u></b></center>
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<b><u><br></u></b></center>
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<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>YEAR</b></td>
<td><b>OILERS' GOALS PER GAME</b></td>
<td><b>% OF GOALS YAKUPOV CONTRIBUTED TO</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>2012-13</b></td>
<td>2.56</td>
<td>25%</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>2013-14</b></td>
<td>2.43</td>
<td>12%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><b>2014-15</b></td>
<td>2.24</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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</center>
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What we see here is that as a team the Oilers are scoring less per game in each of the last three years. Yakupov's contribution was hugely inflated in his rookie season, but has remained constant in the last two. Part of the problem is that the team simply isn't scoring as much. Why is that?</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center>
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<b><u>Oilers' Team Shooting Percentage By Year (All Situations)</u></b></center>
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<b><u><br></u></b></center>
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<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>YEAR</b></td>
<td><b>TEAM SHOOTING PERCENTAGE</b></td>
<td><b>TEAM SHOTS PER GAME</b></td>
</tr>
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<td><b>2012-13</b></td>
<td>9.57</td>
<td>26.8</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><b>2013-14</b></td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>26.9</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><b>2014-15</b></td>
<td>8.09</td>
<td>27.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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</center>
<center style="text-align: left;">
As a team the Oilers' shooting percentage has dropped by a percent and a half since Yakupov was a rookie, even though they're shooting a bit more each game. The Oilers have been unlucky in scoring lately (as if we didn't know that already), so that's part of the reason that the production of every player is down, including Yakupov.</center>
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Yakupov's ice time has remained fairly constant in each season at about fourteen and a half minutes, which is actually quite strange given that he's a first overall pick in his third season. As a point of comparison, fellow winger Taylor Hall averaged over eighteen minutes per game in his rookie year, and was up to almost nineteen minutes by his third year.</center>
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I'm prepared to say that Yakupov was in a bit of a sophomore slump in his second year, because his linemates improved and he did not. But might there be a reason for that?</center>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Confidence</span></center>
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The picture at the top of this page is of a player that Oilers fans likely do not recognize. Remember how excited Yakupov used to be when he scored a goal? When is the last time you saw an Oilers player so thrilled to score? That's gone now.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;">At the time of his fantastic game-tying goal against the Kings, and his slide down the ice in celebration, Shawn Horcoff said of Yakupov:</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;"><i>"He just loves the game. He's got a youthful exuberance about him. He just loves to play and he just loves to score goals."</i></center>
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<br></center><center style="text-align: left;">How dare a hockey player show how much he enjoys scoring goals? The world of the NHL certainly didn't like it. A truly ridiculous amount of controversy sprang up, and Yakupov learned that it's not appropriate to enjoy scoring that much.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;">And then his confidence took another hit.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center>
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Dallas Eakins and Nail Yakupov certainly <a href="http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/12/30/edmonton-oiler-nail-yakupov-sitting-as-a-healthy-scratch-in-game-against-the-phoenix-coyotes">had their differences</a> early on, with the former first overall pick scratched more than once in his second year, breaking 18 minutes of ice time in a game only <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8476855&view=log&season=20132014">four times</a>, and at one point he played just over 31 minutes over FOUR GAMES. By November, Yakupov's agent, Igor Larionov, was publicly demanding answers from the Oilers about how his client was being used, and even said if the Oilers aren't happy with Yakupov they'd be open to a trade.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;">Yes, Eakins and Yak had a rocky start.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;">Eakins admitted on leaving town that he got ahead of himself system-wise. He demanded more of his group than they were capable of when he got them, which led to spectacular failure. And he certainly seemed to demand more from Nail Yakupov.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;">Except Yakupov was never projected to be an all-around talent. There's nothing wrong with learning some defensive responsibility, but unfortunately the fixation on what Yak was always doing wrong seems to have sapped his confidence in what he was doing right.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;">Fans are a little spoiled in Edmonton by Hall and Nugent-Hopkins, two rare talents that we ready to star right out of the box. Those two are the exception, not the rule. Forget where Yakupov was drafted for a moment and consider that most prospects need time to mature. They need to be allowed to fail at certain things and have the coach put them out again anyway. Yakupov hasn't had that luxury. For a year and a half he's been taught that he can't be trusted in situations that matter, like late in a game when he tied it up against Los Angeles as a rookie, or in overtime or the shootout.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;">The team's scoring has declined as a whole, and Yakupov has dipped along with it. He's a different player than the excited young man who first came into the NHL - not only is his confidence shot, but it seems that his joy in the game has diminished as well. Losing 2/3 of the time probably hasn't helped in that regard, and the lack of scoring hurts too.</center><center style="text-align: left;"><br></center><center style="text-align: left;">I have to say I find it funny when people call Yakupov a bust after 150 games or so from a kid who just turned 21 in October. I can scarcely imagine a worse situation for him to start his career. It would be a mistake to give up on him now.</center>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-70187363968757683932015-01-06T23:12:00.001-08:002015-01-06T23:12:18.315-08:0001/07/15 The Detroit Model<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://mihockeynow.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Tatar-caples-608.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://mihockeynow.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Tatar-caples-608.jpg" height="196" width="400" /></a></div>
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If (when?) the Detroit Red Wings make the playoffs this season, it'll lengthen their streak to twenty-four years. Every team in the NHL would love to follow their example, and so should the Oilers.</div>
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The guy in the picture above is Tomas Tatar, who the Red Wings drafted in the second round of the 2009 draft (the Paajarvi/Lander draft) and who didn't see regular NHL action until last year. He played most of four seasons for Detroit's AHL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Griffins, for a total of 265 AHL games. He didn't finally stick in the NHL until the Red Wings would have had to lose him on waivers if they tried to send him down.</div>
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But <i>even then</i> <a href="http://mihockeynow.com/2013/09/crowded-locker-room-means-tomas-tatar-may-be-on-the-way-out/">it wasn't a home run that Tatar would make the team</a>, as the Red Wings had a bunch of extra forwards at training camp and demanded that their young prospect outplay them.</div>
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Compare that approach to the Oilers, who have made the playoffs in nine out of the 24 seasons (including this one) since Detroit last missed.</div>
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Compare Tatar to Anton Lander, who was a full-time NHLer two years before Tatar and has <i>since</i> gone on to play most of two seasons in Oklahoma City. Lander played two seasons in Sweden after being drafted, which was fine for him, but that didn't teach him much about playing in the NHL in 2011-12. Now it appears that Lander has to make it work with the Oilers, or they'll walk away. Meanwhile, Tatar is just starting a promising career.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Detroit's Roster</span></div>
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Twenty-three players have suited up for the Red Wings this season, sixteen of which were drafted by that team*. Fourteen of those have played at least forty games in a single NHL season, and those players averaged four years from the draft to their first 40-game season.</div>
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A big part of that is where the Red Wings draft, of course. When you're always making your picks deeper in the draft, you don't typically get players that can step directly into the NHL.</div>
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But Tomas Tatar is a fine example of how Detroit fundamentally develops their youth. Tatar had 23-26-49 in 61 AHL games in 2012-13, and another 4-3-7 in 18 games with the big club. He was probably ready to test the waters of the NHL that year, but the Red Wings gave him another in the minors and then still didn't hand him a job the following season.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">The Pipeline</span></div>
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Detroit has been lucky with players like Lidstrom and Zetterberg and Datsyuk, but they have also done the right thing with the draft. Largely out of necessity, the Red Wings don't look to the draft for immediate help - they seem to always have an eye to the distant future. That has created a pipeline of NHL calibre players on the farm, just waiting for the call.</div>
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But it's not just luck and drafting that has created competition. Tatar was competing against Dan Cleary for his spot in 2013-14, a veteran player who the Wings re-signed to give themselves some insurance. By contrast, the Oilers are willing to draft a young player and not only guarantee him a roster spot, but also give themselves little or no insurance at the position.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">The Weather</span></div>
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Players want to go to Detroit because that's where you have a chance to win. Marian Hossa signed there even though the Oilers offered him some $80 million. Daniel Alfredsson chose Detroit to sign with when he finally left Ottawa.</div>
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<a href="http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Alberta/Places/edmonton-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php">Edmonton</a> averages 48.6 inches of snow per year, and <a href="http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Michigan/Places/detroit-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php">Detroit</a> averages 42.7 inches. <a href="https://weatherspark.com/averages/28127/Edmonton-Alberta-Canada">Edmonton's cold season</a> starts on November 20th and lasts until March 7th, with an average high of -6 degrees Celsius. <a href="https://weatherspark.com/averages/31987/Detroit-Michigan-United-States">Detroit's cold season</a> starts on November 30th and lasts until March 3rd, with an average high of -1 degree Celsius. Detroit's recent decline has been well documented (<a href="http://content.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1882089,00.html">see photos</a>).</div>
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But players want to go there. Because they win. They've been winning forever.</div>
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Please, Oilers. Follow their lead.</div>
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* - Seventeen if you count Kyle Quincey, who found his way back to Detroit after being drafted by that team. Andrej Nestrasil is also counted above, but is no longer on the team.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-65452550354804999562015-01-05T23:28:00.000-08:002015-01-05T23:28:24.738-08:0001/05/15 The Downfall Of David Perron<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.rumeursdetransactions.com/uploads/2014/11/david-perron-oilers-470x270.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.rumeursdetransactions.com/uploads/2014/11/david-perron-oilers-470x270.jpg" height="183" width="320" /></a></div>
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What happened to David Perron's production this season, and did it contribute to his being sent out of town?</div>
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Perron went from a 28 goal scorer and regular offensive contributor to a guy with five goals in 38 games for the Oilers this season. So what the heck happened? Upon digging a little, I think the problem has to do with teammates, and the way the team is constructed.</div>
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In <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=666&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5">2013-14</a>, Perron's most common linemates at even strength were centers Sam Gagner and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, followed by Taylor Hall. His most common forward linemates<a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=666&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5"> this season</a> have been Mark Arcobello and Teddy Purcell, followed by Leon Draisaitl.</div>
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You can see the drop off there. Say what you will about Sam Gagner - he certainly had his deficiencies - but he was capable of producing offense. He's got 20 points in 37 games this season, which is right around his career points-per-game average (315 points in 518 games), and he's a center. This year, Perron barely spent any time with Nugent-Hopkins or Hall, and Gagner is gone.</div>
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There are things to like about Mark Arcobello, but he has 31 points in 80 career games spread over three seasons, and Leon Draisaitl is a rookie. It's no surprise that Perron's even strength point production has dropped.</div>
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It's the same on the powerplay. Perron spent most of his <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time_on_ice_stats.php?ds=8&f1=2013_s&f2=5v4&f5=EDM&c=0+1+3+5+8+9+11+13+29+31+33">2013-14</a> powerplay time with Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, and Justin Schultz. <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time_on_ice_stats.php?ds=8&f1=2014_s&f2=5v4&f5=PIT&c=0+1+3+5+8+9+11+13+29+31+33">This year</a> he has been with Yakupov, Draisaitl and Purcell.</div>
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In other words, Perron went from a go-to offensive player to a bit of an afterthought. The coaches seem to have wanted to spread out the offense over a couple of lines, which makes some sense, but the lack of center depth sunk any chance of that. So Perron's usage saw his production decline, his frustration increase, and after a few choice words to the media he's gone.</div>
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For more on this situation, read this excellent article by Ryan Batty at The Copper N Blue: <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/1/5/7494967/oilers-trade-perron-didnt-want-to-be-here">He Didn't Want To Be Here</a></div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-70203383743544715432015-01-04T14:16:00.000-08:002015-01-04T14:16:48.680-08:0001/04/15 Three Ways Draisaitl Was Mishandled<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4OxZw1byHBJuQsTFoB5WMvrBcUSt2oYIby1eCLH4NymM_1ztqJ15PGjA7Fbeod2jN11KJnbqSvtF1WvWdnsPCutFMBRydoogCzyaY2zN3ynygcFzBS_71mY6odISq_8VpRU48OOJ9Ymz6/s640/blogger-image-634488899.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4OxZw1byHBJuQsTFoB5WMvrBcUSt2oYIby1eCLH4NymM_1ztqJ15PGjA7Fbeod2jN11KJnbqSvtF1WvWdnsPCutFMBRydoogCzyaY2zN3ynygcFzBS_71mY6odISq_8VpRU48OOJ9Ymz6/s320/blogger-image-634488899.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Remember that old saying "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all"? If we in the blogs followed that mantra when it comes to the Edmonton Oilers, things would be pretty quiet.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1) Don't Develop In The NHL</span></div>
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The NHL is not a development league. When prospects on good teams make it to the big league, they're ready to contribute right away. That's how you build a team that is worth watching for the fans. It doesn't make sense to keep Draisaitl in the NHL to develop because the league is over his head, but also because having him in Edmonton prevented the Oilers from building proper center depth.</div>
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You can't say that you're serious about winning and have Draisaitl in a feature role. He's taking up a roster spot that could have been filled by a proven player. Even someone like Derek Roy isn't that much of a step down from a raw but talented rookie, as the Oilers have finally realized.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2) Missed The World Juniors</span></div>
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It's not like the Oilers robbed Draisaitl of the chance to play for his country, as he has done that many times before. But they certainly robbed his country of the chance to have Draisaitl play for them. And for what? To scratch him twice during the tournament? That's a bit of a dick move.</div>
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But beyond that, if he wasn't even going to play in the NHL (he's had about 50 minutes of NHL ice time since December 21st, when pre-tournament play began for Germany), why not have him go play a feature role for his country? That hour with the Oilers isn't going to make or break the player, and neither is the WJC, but getting him out of here as soon as possible is the best thing for him at this point. So why hang on just to scratch him?</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3) Lose A Cheap Year Of Production</span></div>
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Sending Draisaitl back before the 40 game mark does mean that he hasn't officially gained a year of NHL experience, so this mess of a season won't count as one of the seven he needs to become a UFA. But that doesn't mean everything is hunky-dorey.</div>
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Draisaitl was clearly never ready for the NHL in the first place, but once the Oilers started the season with five straight losses it should have been clear that they weren't making the playoffs - as if that was ever in doubt anyway. So why burn a year of Draisaitl's Entry Level deal? If the player pans out as expected, he'll never be cheaper than he is right now. Way back when, <a href="https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/Should-the-Oilers-send-Taylor-Hall-back-to-junio?urn=nhl-278305">Tyler Dellow wrote</a>:</div>
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<i>"Winning the Stanley Cup isn't rocket science: you do it by spending your money better than everyone else and getting lucky. Really good young players provide you with outrageous value, which you can then turn into something else."</i></div>
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Words to build by. Because the Oilers once again burned a year of ELC on a meaningless season, they'll have to pay Draisaitl sooner for his production. The difference between Draisaitl's current cap hit and his next one could be the amount of a player the Oilers add at the deadline, for example. That may matter in three seasons if the Oilers hadn't used up a year now, but will it matter in the next two? When Draisaitl is ready to make an impact, paying him sooner may mean making a choice between players, rather than having your cake and eating it too.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-20586795246233998062015-01-03T19:42:00.001-08:002015-01-03T19:42:18.185-08:0001/03/15 Odds & Ends: Perron Trade, Petry Trade, Dubnyk, Centers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://oilersnation.com/uploads/Image/petry.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://oilersnation.com/uploads/Image/petry.jpg" height="265" width="400" /></a></div>
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Four more thoughts that you might find interesting.<br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Jeff Petry Trade</span><br />
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I made my rounds of the blogs this morning, and over at Lowetide he had a link to an article that talks about Montreal's interest in Jeff Petry. You can read it <a href="http://www.hockey30.com/nouvelles/le-ch-toujours-aussi-interesse-a-jeff-petry/">here</a>, but it's in French so be prepared to translate if necessary. The article emphasizes that this would be a minor transaction for the Canadiens, which sucks because it's a major item in Edmonton.<br />
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Marc Bergevin has already picked up defensemen Bryan Allen and Sergei Gonchar this season, both of whom are UFAs at the end of the year, in exchange for Rene Bourque and Travis Moen respectively. Those two forwards are mostly useless salary dumps, and those trades happened back in November. Petry is a better player than either Allen or Gonchar, but he's a pure rental. I'd rather just let his contract run out than acquire a bad contract like, say, PA Parenteau, but the Oilers probably won't even get that much at this point.<br />
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So because the Oilers have treated Petry like an afterthought, they'll have to replace a guy who is logging over 21 minutes per game. Hello, Darnell Nurse!<br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">David Perron</span><br />
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I tweeted a thought earlier that made me angry. If the Penguins win the Stanley Cup this year, the Oilers will have traded Magnus Paajarvi and the 33rd overall pick in last year's draft for the 30th pick in this year's draft. I know Paajarvi just cleared waivers, but this is an example of asset management with diminishing returns. The 33rd pick in last year's draft is more valuable than the 30th pick this year - despite reports of a strong crop in 2015 - because it's a year closer to helping the team get out of the basement.<br />
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This trade doesn't accelerate the rebuild, even if it means getting closer to McDavid or Eichel, and acceleration is what the rebuild needs. Do we have any reason to believe that Hall and Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins will be willing to re-sign when their contracts expire if things continue this way? That's just five short years from now in Hall's case! Drafting these kids was supposed to give us a window for winning the Stanley Cup, not a window for making the playoffs -- and the window with this core is closing rapidly.<br />
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Fancy new toys from the draft are great, but <i>the team isn't one star teenager away from being competitive</i>. The endless tanking is making things more difficult in the other ways that you build a team: trades and free agency. Not only are the Oilers dealing from a position of weakness in trades, but the players with No Move or No Trade Clauses will never waive to come to a perennial loser. And would you sign up with this gong show by choice? Not unless the Oilers agreed to pay you well above market value, which is exactly what always happens. They get stuck with the Nikitins and Ferences of the world, and must even massively overpay useful parts like Benoit Pouliot.<br />
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The tanking must end, or things will never get better. There's always another phenom at the top of the draft. Every single year. And even if you had them all, it wouldn't make a winner. Just look at the Edmonton Oilers.<br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Devan Dubnyk</span><br />
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Devan Dubnyk has seen a revival of his career in Arizona. As of this writing he's got a 0.918 Sv% in 18 games. If you subtract last year as a blip, his career save percentage is 0.913. If you subtract his rookie season, otherwise known as the first year the Oilers finished 30th and flushed everything useful, Dubnyk's career save percentage is 0.916.<br />
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I know what you're thinking: <i>you can't just subtract bad seasons to make your argument</i>. And normally I'd agree, except when it comes to goalies. As is often said, goaltending is voodoo. Goalies are extremely difficult to predict. <a href="http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2013/11/110913-deceptive-nature-of-goaltending.html">I've written about this before</a>:<br />
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<i>"In 2011-12, Henrik Lundqvist won the Vezina Trophy as the NHL's top goaltender. However, Lundqvist had a stretch of ten games that year where sported an unsightly 0.888 Sv%."</i></div>
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When it comes to goalies, it seems like a lot has to do with confidence, or swagger, or a bunch of stuff we can't measure. All we can say for sure is that Dubnyk stopped 3,829 of 4,194 shots he faced from his rookie season to 2012-13 (0.912 Sv%), and he did it on some truly terrible Oilers teams. Now he's doing it again. </div>
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With all due respect to Ben Scrivens, he's still got almost 1,300 shots to go before he'll have amassed the body of work that Dubnyk had <i>before last year</i>. Right now Scrivens' 0.911 career save percentage is being propped up by his time in Los Angeles (0.907 without it), and we don't know what he is because he's bounced around the league. When it comes to goalies, all we can trust is the consistency over time, and everything pointed to Dubnyk bouncing back.<br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">The Centers We Had Once</span><br />
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Here's a list of the centers that Craig MacTavish has traded since coming to Edmonton:<br />
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Shawn Horcoff</div>
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Sam Gagner</div>
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Mark Arcobello</div>
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Will Acton</div>
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It'd be nice to have a Horcoff or Gagner right about now, especially since the combined gain for 2014-15 from those two trades are Teddy Purcell. If you think, <a href="http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=65310">as some do</a>, that it was all part of MacTavish's master plan to lose for a couple of years, then could that be the reason that he has weakened the center position? If so, why did <a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/08/20/kevin-lowe-edmonton-oilers-should-be-in-a-pack-with-a-number-of-teams-that-are-shooting-for-that-seveneight-spot/">Kevin Lowe say that they expect to be in the playoff mix</a>? Was that part of the plan too? Was firing the coach he hired part of the plan?</div>
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It's time to accept that this man and everyone running the Oilers are completely out of their depth. As far as anyone can tell, they traded Horcoff and Gagner as a favor to the players. Both were under contract. Both are better options than what the team has now. Both would help to stabilize this runaway train that's on pace for just 16 wins.</div>
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Management hasn't been able to improve the center position, to the point that they haven't replaced the players they already had and traded away.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">CapGeek Ceases Operations</span></div>
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While researching this article, I discovered that CapGeek.com has permanently ceased operations because of the health of its founder, Matthew Wuest. Losing this tool is a certainly a blow, but a person's health must come first. Whatever the health issue may be, I'm sure we all hope for a quick and full recovery.</div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-64861171769071894542015-01-02T11:03:00.001-08:002015-01-02T11:12:20.648-08:0001/02/15 I Hate This Trade So MuchIt's Groundhog Day in Edmonton! Trading actual NHL players for futures has become something of a tradition 'round these parts, and the Oilers didn't disappoint the fans! David Perron is laughing all the way to Pittsburgh.<div><br></div><div>The trade is fine if you look at it in a vacuum. A winger with five goals for a first round pick and a utility player sounds like a clear win for Edmonton. Looking at trades in this way has gotten the Oilers all the way to 30th in the standings. They just keep doing the things that got them here. I feel like my head is going to explode.</div><div><br></div><div>The one thing MacTavish had going for him was acquiring David Perron. There's no possible way to defend this man's leadership, or anyone in management any more.</div><div><br></div><div>A first round pick may be ready to make an impact just in time for the expiration of the value contracts of Hall and Eberle. Think about that.</div><div><br></div><div>And Klinkhammer? Another bottom-six player at best, which makes him mostly irrelevant. He's a UFA after this season, which makes him completely irrelevant.</div><div><br></div><div>If David Perron was an asset that the organization was willing to move, why not do it in the summer when the guy was coming off his best season ever? Wouldn't it have made more sense to trade a valuable winger for some help up the middle, especially after signing another left-winger in Benoit Pouliot? Isn't that how you build a properly balanced roster?</div><div><br></div><div>But no.</div><div><br></div><div>We continue to watch as they rebuild the rebuild. What you're watching is one of the worst organizations in professional sports - quite possibly <i>the</i> worst. It takes a special kind of idiocy to stay at the bottom for this long with this many talented players already in the fold.</div><div><br></div><div>The Oilers didn't get any closer to competing next year, they got further away. When Petry goes, they'll be even further. But just keep doing what you're doing, Oilers. It's worked out so well thus far.</div>Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9030441538852667041.post-21868987448065515102014-12-28T09:59:00.000-08:002014-12-28T10:13:55.632-08:0012/28/14 It's All Wrong<div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6J97h72pGmtXT10rXSO_gPjLJMLkHEhdN1nJ1Tuh19hVMKJRqUE0nJHlxurAWajZ7w8gr_IoJGgDjxHkYNnmWj29FKeUSkePNtfkFpwjcRRFZQjT8LJzFDGuifWsc2ulqAg9jwAM_gudV/s640/blogger-image-304166495.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6J97h72pGmtXT10rXSO_gPjLJMLkHEhdN1nJ1Tuh19hVMKJRqUE0nJHlxurAWajZ7w8gr_IoJGgDjxHkYNnmWj29FKeUSkePNtfkFpwjcRRFZQjT8LJzFDGuifWsc2ulqAg9jwAM_gudV/s320/blogger-image-304166495.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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What is Craig MacTavish doing? Either give Todd Nelson the reigns, or don't. This two-headed monster is now just bizarre. It's not translating into wins, as if that really matters, and one presumes that it's keeping MacT from the big-picture type work that the team desperately needs. Is it going to take a win to get the GM out from behind the bench? Why? Why does that matter?</div>
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If it's a win that MacTavish is trying to squeeze out of this group, then he's badly exposing how unqualified he is as a general manager. Why? Because if winning matters, a smart hockey person wouldn't construct or deploy the lineup this way.</div>
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Brad Hunt, for one glaring example, is not an NHL player. No amount of stubborn force-feeding of minutes (another 19 to go along with a minus-3 against Calgary on HNIC) is going to change that. Simple. Obvious to anyone.</div>
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So is it about tanking, then? If that's the case, why not just hand the team over to Nelson and get to scouting the World Juniors? Lowetide pointed out at his blog that if the team doesn't trust the scouts they'd better have the GM watching.</div>
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No matter which direction the team is <i>actually</i> attempting to go, they're currently going about it the wrong way. <span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">It's funny, really, how wrongly this organization conducts itself without seeing it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">In other news:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue Light, HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Who knew how deeply the lack of center depth was going to cut? Just ask Nail Yakupov. The guy is averaging twelve and a half minutes of ice time at even strength, most often with Draisaitl and Arcobello. Is it any wonder that he isn't scoring?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Ever since MacTavish and Eakins took over the message to this kid has been that he can't be trusted. </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue Light, HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Ah, yes. If Nail Yakupov was going to be good at anything in the NHL, it was being defensively sound. That's just simply not the player they drafted. That doesn't make him a bad player, it makes the organization bad for not recognizing that he's a scoring winger who needs two quality linemates to free him up to do his best work.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue Light, HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">I know everyone says "but he's a first overall pick! He should be making the players around him better!", but guess what? That's not the player the Oilers drafted. He's a scoring winger - that's it, that's all - so use him like one. There's no shame in it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue Light, HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">- For those sick of the negativity, I really do wish there was some good news to write about, but there just isn't. The way the team is conducting itself is now totally indefensible. The Oilers are on pace for their worst season ever and nothing is being done differently except for one of the most unusual coaching changes ever. What was the point of changing the coach if you're going to use the team in more-or-less the same way?</span></div>
Jerconjakehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12828370832906335394noreply@blogger.com0