Oilers fans have been a bit spoiled this year when it comes to the rookie crop. With the likes of Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, each of whom had stellar years, it's easy to believe that Magnus Paajarvi's rookie season was below average. This is due in part to the perception by some that he could be the most NHL ready of the Big 3 because of his having played with men in the Swedish Elite League. That has not turned out to be the case. On the whole no one seems to be suggesting that Paajarvi's season was a failure, but he's starting to be seen as a player who will be lauded for his strong two-way play and not his offensive output. To be sure, Paajarvi is a solid player at both ends of the ice, despite his mediocre minus-13 rating. But does that mean that the offense isn't there for him?
On a team that lacks players like Hall and Eberle, Paajarvi would be the star rookie. As such, he would certainly be relied upon more for offense and his ice time would have been increased. On average, Paajarvi played 3 minutes per game less than Taylor Hall and 2 minutes less than Eberle.
Paajarvi fired 180 shots on goal, which was the third-highest total on the team. Granted, Hall and Eberle would have had 229 and 209 shots in the same number of games played as Paajarvi, but Paajarvi was also playing fewer minutes per game, and sometimes with linemates that were not as skilled.
15 goals is not a bad total for a rookie season, especially when one considers that his shooting percentage was just 8.3%. If he works on his shot, gets better linemates, more ice time and a little puck luck, he shouldn't have much problem getting his percentage into Hall and Eberle's 11% range. That would easily make him a 20 goal scorer in the future. In fact, there's a chance that he could surpass that number.
Here is a list of nine years of rookie point totals close to Paajarvi's, starting in 2009-10:
2009-10:
James van Riemsdyk PHI L 78 15 20 35 -1
Peter Regin OTT C 75 13 16 29 10
Artem Anisimov NYR C 82 12 16 28 -2
Tyler Bozak TOR C 37 8 19 27 -5
Evander Kane ATL L 66 14 12 26 2
2008-09:
Andrew Ebbett ANA C 48 8 24 32 8
Nikolai Kulemin TOR L 73 15 16 31 -8
Fabian Brunnstrom DAL L 55 17 12 29 -8
John Mitchell TOR C 76 12 17 29 -16
Mikkel Boedker PHX L 78 11 17 28 -6
Claude Giroux PHI R 42 9 18 27
2007-08:
Martin Hanzal PHX C 72 8 27 35 -7
Nigel Dawes NYR L 61 14 15 29 11
David Perron STL L 62 13 14 27 16
Sergei Kostitsyn MTL L 52 9 18 27 9
Milan Lucic BOS L 77 8 19 27 -2
2006-07:
Alexander Radulov NSH R 64 18 19 37 19
Ryane Clowe SJS L 58 16 18 34
Guillaume Latendresse MTL L 80 16 13 29 -20
Phil Kessel BOS R 70 11 18 29 -12
Joe Pavelski SJS C 46 14 14 28 4
Drew Stafford BUF R 41 13 14 27 5
Jiri Hudler DET C 76 15 10 25 16
David Backes STL R 49 10 13 23 6
2005-06:
Ryan Getzlaf ANA C 57 14 25 39 6
Milan Michalek SJS L 81 17 18 35 1
Rene Bourque CHI L 77 16 18 34 3
Mike Richards PHI C 79 11 23 34 6
Michel Ouellet PIT R 50 16 16 32 -13
Zach Parise NJD L 81 14 18 32 -1
2003-04:
Patrice Bergeron BOS C 71 16 23 39 5
Joffrey Lupul ANA R 75 13 21 34 -6
Nikolay Zherdev CBJ R 57 13 21 34 -11
Eric Staal CAR C 81 11 20 31 -6
Matthew Lombardi CGY C 79 16 13 29 4
2002-03:
Rick Nash CBJ R 74 17 22 39 -27
Ales Kotalik BUF R 68 21 14 35 -2
Niko Kapanen DAL C 82 5 29 34 25
Alex Frolov LAK L 79 14 17 31 12
Stanislav Chistov ANA L 79 12 18 30 4
Ales Hemsky EDM R 59 6 24 30 5
2001-02:
Pavel Datsyuk DET C 70 11 24 35 4
Martin Erat NSH R 80 9 24 33 -11
Radim Vrbata COL R 52 18 12 30 7
2000-01:
Marian Gaborik MIN R 71 18 18 36 -6
Ruslan Fedotenko PHI L 74 16 20 36 8
Steve Reinprecht LAK, COL C 80 15 21 36 10
Daniel Sedin VAN L 75 20 14 34 -3
Karel Rachunek OTT D 71 3 30 33 17
David Vyborny CBJ R 79 13 19 32 -9
The bolded players played a similar number of games to Paajarvi as rookies and also ended with similar point totals before becoming very good NHLers. Some of these players are now elite offensive talents, and yet they had rookie seasons close to that of Magnus Paajarvi. No one is suggesting that Paajarvi is going to turn into Eric Staal or Zach Parise, but the point of these numbers is to show that seasons like Paajarvi's do not mean that that player will not end up being an offensive threat. On the other hand, there are just as many, if not more players who aren't bolded, meaning that these players either ended up being only decent or not playing in the NHL at all, or that they weren't close to Paajarvi's totals.
Magnus Paajarvi clearly has the tools to be effective in the NHL. The fact that he understands a two-way game is a major point of strength for him and will help to keep him in the league for a long time. However, making the transition from Europe is not as easy as some may think, especially for a young man who is only 19 years old. The fact that his offensive output is not what some expected can be at least partially chalked up to the fact that he is making a major jump. Not only do Hall and Eberle have the advantage when it comes to knowing the North American style of play and ice surface size, but they also have a leg up in regards to the culture, language, and proximity to their friends and families. It's certainly no cooincidence that Paajarvi's play began to improve with the addition of fellow Swede Linus Omark, and the effect that the mind can have on an athlete is well known. As he gets accustomed to North America, he should be more able to focus on hockey.
Paajarvi has shown a remarkable level of maturity in being able to come to Canada on his own, and considering all the things working against him, his rookie season should be celebrated for its quality. If he can continue to work hard and improve his game, there's no reason that he cannot be a dangerous offensive threat as well as a complete player.
Saturday, 16 April 2011
Thursday, 14 April 2011
04-14-11 13.0 The Dilemma
There has been a new wrinkle in the drama that is the NHL draft, and a slight dilemma has presented itself for the Edmonton Oilers. On tuesday the New Jersey Devils won the draft lottery, which means the Oilers will pick first overall for the second straight year. The problem is who to take. There is no clear Taylor vs. Tyler or Tavares vs. Hedman debate. There has been a relatively equal split between a large number of players that could conceivably go number one. Right now it has been between Nugent-Hopkins vs. Adam Larsson, but the real number one prospect may be emerging in the Quebec League for the St. John Seadogs.
That player is Jonathan Huberdeau. As of right now, Huberdeau has amassed 10-9-19 in just 8 playoff games, along with a plus-9 rating. He's been far and away the best draft-eligible player in the QMJHL playoffs. In fact, Huberdeau has been the most prolific draft-eligible scorer in the playoffs of the entire CHL. He has almost twice as many points as Sean Couturier, and he does have more than twice as many as Nugent-Hopkins. He is playing on a very good St. John team that is loaded with talent, but Couturier's Volitgeurs and Nugent-Hopkins' Rebels are no slouches either.
However, Huberdeau presents a problem for the Oilers. He is listed as a center, but he isn't one. He plays left wing as well, and when he makes the NHL it will almost certainly be in that position. Huberdeau has taken a total of 18 faceoffs in the entire playoffs, winning just 7 of them. When it comes to doing the hard legwork that is required of a center, it seems to fall to Zack Phillips, Michael Kirkpatrick and Steven MacAulay; who have taken 152, 73 and 70 draws respectively. Steven Anthony is listed as a left winger, but he has taken 84 draws in the playoffs so far.
The Oilers desperately need a number one center who can win a draw, and it seems that Huberdeau isn't it. The fact that he doesn't take draws speaks to his ability in the discipline even more than his 39% efficiency. He only took 280 draws all season and won a mediocre 114 for around 41%.
At 6'1" and 171 pounds, Huberdeau isn't much bigger than Nugent-Hopkins. If size is a knock on RNH, it's got to be one for Huberdeau too. He's probably slippery enough for it not to be that big of a problem, but he may need some time to bulk up. Some question his quickness as well. His first few steps are not an area of strength, but he has overcome these minor deficiencies to be third in regular season QMJHL scoring and first in plus/minus.
Interestingly, Sean Couturier's points per game number in the Q this season was actually better than that of Huberdeau. Couturier had 1.66 ppg, and Huberdeau 1.57. In the same number of games played, Couturier was on pace to outscore him 111 to 105. Furthermore, Couturier took 1430 draws this season, and won 778 of them for 54% effectiveness.
Still, Huberdeau appears to be separating himself from the pack in these playoffs. In a year when there is no clear-cut number one, playoff performance could be enough to tip the scales. Last year when Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin were neck and neck going toward the draft and Seguin was ranked #1 by Central Scouting, it was Hall's fantastic playoff performance that made him the first overall pick. The playoffs are when players must really shine if they can, and Hall did it, just like Huberdeau appears to be doing now. If all of the top four players in this year's draft class are as close as Hall and Seguin, the playoffs could truly be the difference.
But can the Oilers take Huberdeau? What the Oilers don't really need is another undersized, skilled winger, and that's exactly what Huberdeau projects to be. It's possible that this could be the best offensive player in the draft and the Oilers will have to pass on him. Of course, there's always the possibilty of trading down and trying to get value for the fact that they have to pass on Huberdeau, but it seems doubtful that the Oilers will trade the first overall pick.
Couturier is still the best fit for the Oilers in this draft. He has size, scoring, playmaking and he can win faceoffs. However, more will be known about who is the true number one as the quest for the Memorial Cup continues.
That player is Jonathan Huberdeau. As of right now, Huberdeau has amassed 10-9-19 in just 8 playoff games, along with a plus-9 rating. He's been far and away the best draft-eligible player in the QMJHL playoffs. In fact, Huberdeau has been the most prolific draft-eligible scorer in the playoffs of the entire CHL. He has almost twice as many points as Sean Couturier, and he does have more than twice as many as Nugent-Hopkins. He is playing on a very good St. John team that is loaded with talent, but Couturier's Volitgeurs and Nugent-Hopkins' Rebels are no slouches either.
However, Huberdeau presents a problem for the Oilers. He is listed as a center, but he isn't one. He plays left wing as well, and when he makes the NHL it will almost certainly be in that position. Huberdeau has taken a total of 18 faceoffs in the entire playoffs, winning just 7 of them. When it comes to doing the hard legwork that is required of a center, it seems to fall to Zack Phillips, Michael Kirkpatrick and Steven MacAulay; who have taken 152, 73 and 70 draws respectively. Steven Anthony is listed as a left winger, but he has taken 84 draws in the playoffs so far.
The Oilers desperately need a number one center who can win a draw, and it seems that Huberdeau isn't it. The fact that he doesn't take draws speaks to his ability in the discipline even more than his 39% efficiency. He only took 280 draws all season and won a mediocre 114 for around 41%.
At 6'1" and 171 pounds, Huberdeau isn't much bigger than Nugent-Hopkins. If size is a knock on RNH, it's got to be one for Huberdeau too. He's probably slippery enough for it not to be that big of a problem, but he may need some time to bulk up. Some question his quickness as well. His first few steps are not an area of strength, but he has overcome these minor deficiencies to be third in regular season QMJHL scoring and first in plus/minus.
Interestingly, Sean Couturier's points per game number in the Q this season was actually better than that of Huberdeau. Couturier had 1.66 ppg, and Huberdeau 1.57. In the same number of games played, Couturier was on pace to outscore him 111 to 105. Furthermore, Couturier took 1430 draws this season, and won 778 of them for 54% effectiveness.
Still, Huberdeau appears to be separating himself from the pack in these playoffs. In a year when there is no clear-cut number one, playoff performance could be enough to tip the scales. Last year when Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin were neck and neck going toward the draft and Seguin was ranked #1 by Central Scouting, it was Hall's fantastic playoff performance that made him the first overall pick. The playoffs are when players must really shine if they can, and Hall did it, just like Huberdeau appears to be doing now. If all of the top four players in this year's draft class are as close as Hall and Seguin, the playoffs could truly be the difference.
But can the Oilers take Huberdeau? What the Oilers don't really need is another undersized, skilled winger, and that's exactly what Huberdeau projects to be. It's possible that this could be the best offensive player in the draft and the Oilers will have to pass on him. Of course, there's always the possibilty of trading down and trying to get value for the fact that they have to pass on Huberdeau, but it seems doubtful that the Oilers will trade the first overall pick.
Couturier is still the best fit for the Oilers in this draft. He has size, scoring, playmaking and he can win faceoffs. However, more will be known about who is the true number one as the quest for the Memorial Cup continues.
Wednesday, 13 April 2011
04/13/11 12.0 CHL, AHL, NHL Playoffs, World Championships
The glorious season has begun.
It's playoff time for the Canadian Hockey League, American Hockey League and the NHL as well. Here I will give some updates, interesting facts and data about the series' of note. Any time an Oiler prospect or potential prospect is playing, the news will be listed here. So too will be the latest info on OKC's playoff drive. If anything interesting happens in the NHL playoffs, this is the place to read about it as well. Several Oilers will be participating in the World Hockey Championship in Slovakia, and I will also be updating the latest on them too. I love this time of year.
CHL:
Ryan Martindale's (61st overall in 2010) Ottawa 67's finished second in the OHL's Eastern Conference this year, earning home ice advantage in the playoffs. They drew the Sudbury Wolves in round one. Ottawa beat Sudbury 7-3 in the last game of the season, but amazingly Sudbury swept the 67's in round one of the playoffs. Martindale had 3 goals and 2 assists in those four games, and was rated minus-3.
The Prince George Cougars improved by 48 points this year after accumulating just 28 last year. After selecting Oiler's prospect Martin Marincin (46th in 2010) first overall in the CHL import draft, they saw immediate dividends. They finished 7th in the West and made the playoffs after finishing last the year before. They too were swept in round one by the Kelowna Rockets, but Marincin had 1 goal and 4 assists in the series.
Tyler Pitlick (31st in 2010; signed to an entry level contract today) is hurt, but his team mate Tyler Bunz (121st in 2010) on the Medicine Hat Tigers is playing extremely well. He's shut the door on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' powerful Red Deer Rebels, helping the Tigers to a 3-1 series lead that Medicine Hat led 3-0 before tonight. Before tonight, Bunz had a 1.66 GAA and a .944 SV% in the playoffs, and he only allowed one goal tonight in the loss.
As for Nugent-Hopkins, in the four games since sweeping the Oil Kings he's got no points and a minus-4 rating. The CHL playoffs can still sway the final rankings of these players for NHL teams, no matter how good their regular season was. Overall, RNH has 9 points in 8 playoff games and is a minus-2.
Sean Couturier was a minus-4 tonight alone in a 6-1 loss to Gatineau, going 6 for 19 in the faceoff circle; a miserable 32%. He's still got 10 points in 8 playoff games and a plus-6 rating, and he's also won 94 of 194 faceoffs. That's still only 48%, and some of those were against a much weaker Chicoutimi team. Couturier has won 342 of 662 draws taken since coming back from the World Juniors, which is around 52%, but like Nugent-Hopkins, the playoffs seem to be catching up to Couturier a little bit.
Curtis Hamilton (48th in 2010) and his Saskatoon Blades have been upset by the Kootenay Ice. The 8th place Prince Alberta Raiders took the WHL's #1 seeded Blades to six games and now the Blades have been swept by #4 seeded Kootenay. In the ten playoff games, Hamilton had 4-7-11 and a minus-3 rating.
In 15 playoff games Adam Larsson has 5 assists and a minus-4 rating.
AHL:
Barons' playoff series begins tomorrow.
NHL:
Begin tonight.
World Championships:
Jordan Eberle and Devan Dubnyk were named to team Canada and will have a real shot at making an impact for that team. Expect Paajarvi to go for Sweden too. Omark would have gone but he's playing for OKC in the AHL playoffs. The 2011 World Hockey Championships begin April 29th and will run thru May 15th.
Watching all the playoff series closely and updates will be forthcoming as things progress. More soon..!
It's playoff time for the Canadian Hockey League, American Hockey League and the NHL as well. Here I will give some updates, interesting facts and data about the series' of note. Any time an Oiler prospect or potential prospect is playing, the news will be listed here. So too will be the latest info on OKC's playoff drive. If anything interesting happens in the NHL playoffs, this is the place to read about it as well. Several Oilers will be participating in the World Hockey Championship in Slovakia, and I will also be updating the latest on them too. I love this time of year.
CHL:
Ryan Martindale's (61st overall in 2010) Ottawa 67's finished second in the OHL's Eastern Conference this year, earning home ice advantage in the playoffs. They drew the Sudbury Wolves in round one. Ottawa beat Sudbury 7-3 in the last game of the season, but amazingly Sudbury swept the 67's in round one of the playoffs. Martindale had 3 goals and 2 assists in those four games, and was rated minus-3.
The Prince George Cougars improved by 48 points this year after accumulating just 28 last year. After selecting Oiler's prospect Martin Marincin (46th in 2010) first overall in the CHL import draft, they saw immediate dividends. They finished 7th in the West and made the playoffs after finishing last the year before. They too were swept in round one by the Kelowna Rockets, but Marincin had 1 goal and 4 assists in the series.
Tyler Pitlick (31st in 2010; signed to an entry level contract today) is hurt, but his team mate Tyler Bunz (121st in 2010) on the Medicine Hat Tigers is playing extremely well. He's shut the door on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' powerful Red Deer Rebels, helping the Tigers to a 3-1 series lead that Medicine Hat led 3-0 before tonight. Before tonight, Bunz had a 1.66 GAA and a .944 SV% in the playoffs, and he only allowed one goal tonight in the loss.
As for Nugent-Hopkins, in the four games since sweeping the Oil Kings he's got no points and a minus-4 rating. The CHL playoffs can still sway the final rankings of these players for NHL teams, no matter how good their regular season was. Overall, RNH has 9 points in 8 playoff games and is a minus-2.
Sean Couturier was a minus-4 tonight alone in a 6-1 loss to Gatineau, going 6 for 19 in the faceoff circle; a miserable 32%. He's still got 10 points in 8 playoff games and a plus-6 rating, and he's also won 94 of 194 faceoffs. That's still only 48%, and some of those were against a much weaker Chicoutimi team. Couturier has won 342 of 662 draws taken since coming back from the World Juniors, which is around 52%, but like Nugent-Hopkins, the playoffs seem to be catching up to Couturier a little bit.
Curtis Hamilton (48th in 2010) and his Saskatoon Blades have been upset by the Kootenay Ice. The 8th place Prince Alberta Raiders took the WHL's #1 seeded Blades to six games and now the Blades have been swept by #4 seeded Kootenay. In the ten playoff games, Hamilton had 4-7-11 and a minus-3 rating.
In 15 playoff games Adam Larsson has 5 assists and a minus-4 rating.
AHL:
Barons' playoff series begins tomorrow.
NHL:
Begin tonight.
World Championships:
Jordan Eberle and Devan Dubnyk were named to team Canada and will have a real shot at making an impact for that team. Expect Paajarvi to go for Sweden too. Omark would have gone but he's playing for OKC in the AHL playoffs. The 2011 World Hockey Championships begin April 29th and will run thru May 15th.
Watching all the playoff series closely and updates will be forthcoming as things progress. More soon..!
Monday, 11 April 2011
04/10/11 11.0 More Odds & Ends
Season over. Close the curtain. Turn off the light. Exit to your left.
Here we are at the end of another season of Oilers hockey. To tell you the truth, I started looking forward to the end when the Oilers still had around ten games left, but the way that they played over the last few games has made me stop that madness. Now that it's over, I'm missing the Oilers already. Here are a few notes:
- Jordan Eberle broke the Curse of 42 by leading the team with 43 points. Now that someone has pierced that ominous plateau, I feel comfortable saying that the curse is over. It's not much of a statement though. With Taylor Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Omark and a glut of others, scoring 42 measly points should be child's play next year.
- OKC made the playoffs in its first year out of the gate, which is something to behold. The attention paid by management to building a competitive farm team is impressive, and something that cannot be overstated. For years the media, Oiler fans, and indeed the team's own management have been talking about a culture change. That culture change starts at the bottom. If the kids in the feeder system are winning, it's all they'll know how to do.
Montreal's farm team, the Hamilton Bulldogs, is OKC's first round opponent. Their leading scorer is Nigel Dawes, who came over from the Chicago Wolves mid-season. He's got 41 goals and 72 points in 66 games. Should be an interesting matchup, since the Barons have Colin McDonald, the leading goal-scorer in the entire AHL with 42. If we call McDonald and Dawes a wash, the Barons then boast Alex Giroux, who was second in AHL scoring this season with 78 points in 70 games. Hamilton's second highest scorer is Aaron Palushaj with 57 points in 68 games. David Desharnais is their third highest scorer and he's in Montreal.
Giroux has been all the way before, winning the Calder Cup last year with Hershey. With O'Marra, Omark, Vande Velde, Petry and Hartikainen all going back to Oklahoma for the playoffs, there's a chance that this could be the first series win for the Barons. I don't want to say too much about their potential, but this team has a chance to make some noise.
- Former Oilers draft pick Marc-Antoine Pouliot is the 6th highest-scorer in the AHL this year with 25-47-72 in 69 games with Tampa's affiliate, the Norfolk Admirals. To the casual observer, it may appear that Pouliot is finally finding his offensive groove. However, Pouliot has always been a better performer in the AHL. In 2007-08, he went 21-26-47 in 55 games with Springfield. He started the next season with the Oilers and went 8-12-20 in 63 games. In 3 games with the Lightning this year, Pouliot managed no points, a minus-3 and a quick demotion back to Norfolk. It just turns out that he's not an NHL player. Boy is Zach Parise ever looking good about now...
- Speaking of the draft, as nice as it would be to see the Oilers trade up into the top ten with that LA pick, don't expect it to happen. The trouble with trading up is what the Oilers would have to give up to get there. Obviously, later round picks won't be enough, and there's no one on the roster that the Oilers will be thrilled to move right now. The one piece that could get a deal done in Ales Hemsky, but he's not enough to get into the top ten anymore. Even if he wasn't as prone to injury as he's proven to be, he's only got one more year left on his contract. There's no way that any team in the top ten at the draft would give up a quality pick for what essentially amounts to a rental player. There's no guarantee that Hemsky would re-sign with that team, and given the amount of losing he's done in his career, he'd almost certainly sign in greener pastures.
If the Oilers decide that they don't want to extend Hemsky, they might use him to trade into the top 15. At last year's draft Cam Fowler and Brandon Gormley - who could each have gone fourth overall - slipped to 12th and 13th overall respectively. If we see a situation similar to that this year, the Oilers might consider moving up. For instance, if offensive defenseman Ryan Murphy somehow falls to the 12th spot and Carolina would prefer Hemsky, it could happen that the Oilers trade Hemsky and LA's pick for the 12th pick. I'm not saying that would happen, but unless a player falls within striking distance for the Oilers, I see them standing pat.
Murphy has 79 points in 63 games with Kitchener this year, and he's somewhat in the Ryan Ellis mould - small, but extremely offensively gifted. Chances are that he won't slip past number ten, but we can dream.
- Meet the top prospect for the 2012 draft: Nail Yakupov. He's a Russian who will turn 18 in October, and he scored 49-52-101 in 65 games as an OHL rookie this year with Sarnia. Yeah. NAIL. Let the hyperbolic nicknames begin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZaXm7WTTaY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3q2xLF3dwE
This kid could be the next Ovechkin. I just hope the Oilers don't have the chance to draft him...
Until next time!
Here we are at the end of another season of Oilers hockey. To tell you the truth, I started looking forward to the end when the Oilers still had around ten games left, but the way that they played over the last few games has made me stop that madness. Now that it's over, I'm missing the Oilers already. Here are a few notes:
- Jordan Eberle broke the Curse of 42 by leading the team with 43 points. Now that someone has pierced that ominous plateau, I feel comfortable saying that the curse is over. It's not much of a statement though. With Taylor Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Omark and a glut of others, scoring 42 measly points should be child's play next year.
- OKC made the playoffs in its first year out of the gate, which is something to behold. The attention paid by management to building a competitive farm team is impressive, and something that cannot be overstated. For years the media, Oiler fans, and indeed the team's own management have been talking about a culture change. That culture change starts at the bottom. If the kids in the feeder system are winning, it's all they'll know how to do.
Montreal's farm team, the Hamilton Bulldogs, is OKC's first round opponent. Their leading scorer is Nigel Dawes, who came over from the Chicago Wolves mid-season. He's got 41 goals and 72 points in 66 games. Should be an interesting matchup, since the Barons have Colin McDonald, the leading goal-scorer in the entire AHL with 42. If we call McDonald and Dawes a wash, the Barons then boast Alex Giroux, who was second in AHL scoring this season with 78 points in 70 games. Hamilton's second highest scorer is Aaron Palushaj with 57 points in 68 games. David Desharnais is their third highest scorer and he's in Montreal.
Giroux has been all the way before, winning the Calder Cup last year with Hershey. With O'Marra, Omark, Vande Velde, Petry and Hartikainen all going back to Oklahoma for the playoffs, there's a chance that this could be the first series win for the Barons. I don't want to say too much about their potential, but this team has a chance to make some noise.
- Former Oilers draft pick Marc-Antoine Pouliot is the 6th highest-scorer in the AHL this year with 25-47-72 in 69 games with Tampa's affiliate, the Norfolk Admirals. To the casual observer, it may appear that Pouliot is finally finding his offensive groove. However, Pouliot has always been a better performer in the AHL. In 2007-08, he went 21-26-47 in 55 games with Springfield. He started the next season with the Oilers and went 8-12-20 in 63 games. In 3 games with the Lightning this year, Pouliot managed no points, a minus-3 and a quick demotion back to Norfolk. It just turns out that he's not an NHL player. Boy is Zach Parise ever looking good about now...
- Speaking of the draft, as nice as it would be to see the Oilers trade up into the top ten with that LA pick, don't expect it to happen. The trouble with trading up is what the Oilers would have to give up to get there. Obviously, later round picks won't be enough, and there's no one on the roster that the Oilers will be thrilled to move right now. The one piece that could get a deal done in Ales Hemsky, but he's not enough to get into the top ten anymore. Even if he wasn't as prone to injury as he's proven to be, he's only got one more year left on his contract. There's no way that any team in the top ten at the draft would give up a quality pick for what essentially amounts to a rental player. There's no guarantee that Hemsky would re-sign with that team, and given the amount of losing he's done in his career, he'd almost certainly sign in greener pastures.
If the Oilers decide that they don't want to extend Hemsky, they might use him to trade into the top 15. At last year's draft Cam Fowler and Brandon Gormley - who could each have gone fourth overall - slipped to 12th and 13th overall respectively. If we see a situation similar to that this year, the Oilers might consider moving up. For instance, if offensive defenseman Ryan Murphy somehow falls to the 12th spot and Carolina would prefer Hemsky, it could happen that the Oilers trade Hemsky and LA's pick for the 12th pick. I'm not saying that would happen, but unless a player falls within striking distance for the Oilers, I see them standing pat.
Murphy has 79 points in 63 games with Kitchener this year, and he's somewhat in the Ryan Ellis mould - small, but extremely offensively gifted. Chances are that he won't slip past number ten, but we can dream.
- Meet the top prospect for the 2012 draft: Nail Yakupov. He's a Russian who will turn 18 in October, and he scored 49-52-101 in 65 games as an OHL rookie this year with Sarnia. Yeah. NAIL. Let the hyperbolic nicknames begin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZaXm7WTTaY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3q2xLF3dwE
This kid could be the next Ovechkin. I just hope the Oilers don't have the chance to draft him...
Until next time!
Wednesday, 6 April 2011
04/06/11 10.0 Oilers Clinch 30th
Oh well.
What many hoped would be the biggest Oiler win of the year ended up being a rout for the Calgary Flames.
Happily for Oiler fans everywhere, the Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks also won, which means that the Flames are eliminated from playoff contention anyway. Even if the two teams I mentioned before both lost their final two games of the season, which is unlikely, they would both end up with 95 points. Calgary can get a maximum of 95, but Chicago will have a minimum of 43 wins and Anaheim a minimum of 45. Calgary can only get a maximum of 42 wins, meaning that they can't overtake either team.
Meanwhile, the Oilers' loss means that they can now only end the year with a maximum of 65 points, and they will therefore be unable to catch the 29th-place Colorado Avalanche, who have 66. What we already knew intellectually is now mathematically confirmed: the Oilers will finish 30th and have a 48.2% chance of picking first overall in June. The lottery will go April 12th at 6 pm Mountain Time on TSN, less than a week from today. Oiler fans will be glued to their TVs on that evening, to be sure.
Would you rather be a fan of Edmonton or Calgary right now?
Calgary's pick will be in the 13-14 overall range, in all likelihood netting them a middling prospect. Already in Calgary's system, Tim Erixon is a legitimate defensive prospect, but he's also probably a number of years away from being able to be at his best in the NHL. Even then, his top end seems to be as a second-pairing defenseman. The Hockey News Future Watch ranked Calgary's prospect group as 27th of the 30 NHL teams. There are no bonafide impact players coming up through their system.
Calgary is a cap team right now. Of the 11 highest-spending teams, only Calgary and New Jersey are out of the playoffs, and Calgary has one of the highest payrolls in the league. If the cap doesn't go up, the Flames will have around $4 million in cap space next year if they let all their UFAs walk, but they aren't going to want to do that considering the stellar play of UFAs Alex Tanguay and Curtis Glencross. It's highly unlikely that they will be able to squeeze both players under the cap, since they each already make $1.7 and $1.2 million respectively and will need substantial raises. It will also be difficult to fit Anton Babchuk under the cap, who is already making $1.4 million. Will they want to re-sign Brendan Morrison, who made just $725k this year? If so, he will need a raise.
They can save money by letting Steve Staois walk away, and the same goes for Freddy Modin, but there isn't a lot of wiggle-room otherwise. Unfortunately, the Flames also own nine No-Trade or No-Move Clauses, making the job of trading contracts out of town extremely difficult. $41 million dollars in cap space is protected by such clauses.
What this essentially means is that it's highly probable that next year the Flames will look a lot like the team did this year. This team isn't currently good enough to be a playoff team, and they may lose some of their better players to free agency in Glencross and Tanguay. The team accomplished nothing this year except to get another year older, and time is not on Calgary's side.
***
What many hoped would be the biggest Oiler win of the year ended up being a rout for the Calgary Flames.
Happily for Oiler fans everywhere, the Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks also won, which means that the Flames are eliminated from playoff contention anyway. Even if the two teams I mentioned before both lost their final two games of the season, which is unlikely, they would both end up with 95 points. Calgary can get a maximum of 95, but Chicago will have a minimum of 43 wins and Anaheim a minimum of 45. Calgary can only get a maximum of 42 wins, meaning that they can't overtake either team.
Meanwhile, the Oilers' loss means that they can now only end the year with a maximum of 65 points, and they will therefore be unable to catch the 29th-place Colorado Avalanche, who have 66. What we already knew intellectually is now mathematically confirmed: the Oilers will finish 30th and have a 48.2% chance of picking first overall in June. The lottery will go April 12th at 6 pm Mountain Time on TSN, less than a week from today. Oiler fans will be glued to their TVs on that evening, to be sure.
Would you rather be a fan of Edmonton or Calgary right now?
Calgary's pick will be in the 13-14 overall range, in all likelihood netting them a middling prospect. Already in Calgary's system, Tim Erixon is a legitimate defensive prospect, but he's also probably a number of years away from being able to be at his best in the NHL. Even then, his top end seems to be as a second-pairing defenseman. The Hockey News Future Watch ranked Calgary's prospect group as 27th of the 30 NHL teams. There are no bonafide impact players coming up through their system.
Calgary is a cap team right now. Of the 11 highest-spending teams, only Calgary and New Jersey are out of the playoffs, and Calgary has one of the highest payrolls in the league. If the cap doesn't go up, the Flames will have around $4 million in cap space next year if they let all their UFAs walk, but they aren't going to want to do that considering the stellar play of UFAs Alex Tanguay and Curtis Glencross. It's highly unlikely that they will be able to squeeze both players under the cap, since they each already make $1.7 and $1.2 million respectively and will need substantial raises. It will also be difficult to fit Anton Babchuk under the cap, who is already making $1.4 million. Will they want to re-sign Brendan Morrison, who made just $725k this year? If so, he will need a raise.
They can save money by letting Steve Staois walk away, and the same goes for Freddy Modin, but there isn't a lot of wiggle-room otherwise. Unfortunately, the Flames also own nine No-Trade or No-Move Clauses, making the job of trading contracts out of town extremely difficult. $41 million dollars in cap space is protected by such clauses.
What this essentially means is that it's highly probable that next year the Flames will look a lot like the team did this year. This team isn't currently good enough to be a playoff team, and they may lose some of their better players to free agency in Glencross and Tanguay. The team accomplished nothing this year except to get another year older, and time is not on Calgary's side.
***
Up highway 2, the Oilers have around $20 million in cap space for next year. Their prospects were ranked #1 by The Hockey News Future Watch, and they will be adding another elite prospect this summer. The Oilers are guaranteed to have the first pick in each subsequent round of the draft this year, and just like last year they will have the opportunity to add some quality secondary prospects that way. After this draft the pipeline will be overflowing with quality youth.
The 2011-2012 Oilers will have a number of high quality players on the roster. Each of them are young, at the beginning of their careers, and relatively inexpensive. In terms of overall flexibility, the Oilers have just 2 No Move/No Trade Clauses. One belongs to Horcoff, who isn't getting traded anyway, and the other belongs to Ryan Whitney, who also will not move.
A rebuild in Calgary is coming, so now would have been the time to start. Instead, the rebuild is set back by a full year and the pain is going to last that much longer. It's a pain that Oiler fans are very familiar with, but one that will soon be coming to an end - for the Copper & Blue at least
Saturday, 2 April 2011
04/02/11 5.4 Draft Primer Part Five: The Decision
I've put up a fair amount of data and case samples here to try to show that drafting a center would be best for the Oilers' future. If you're with me on that, you know that the one thing left to decide on is what center to take. Over the last month or so I've flip-flopped back and forth from Couturier to Nugent-Hopkins, and I've even seriously considered Strome and Huberdeau, though I think Huberbeau will end up as a left winger in the NHL. What I think won’t matter on draft day, but here is the breakdown of my final decision:
The winner is...
Sean Couturier!
This decision is based on who I think will be the best pick for the Oilers; not necessarily who I think that they will select, and not necessarily who I think will be the best player taken. Gabriel Landeskog may end up as the best player of the bunch, but I didn’t seriously consider him because he doesn’t really address a team need for the Oilers. Then again, a player taken in the fourth round may end up as the best of the whole draft class, and there is no clear #1, which is why I’m picking based on need.
I grant you that the CHL playoffs are far from over and both Couturier's Voltigeurs and Nugent-Hopkins’ Rebels swept their first round series', but I still think I've got enough now to make my final decision. Why, in my mind, does Couturier beat out Nugent-Hopkins? There are several reasons:
Faceoffs: I've heard nothing but solid figures when it comes to Couturier's faceoff numbers, with him sometimes winning as much as 60% of his draws. It's likely that he won't immediately be as effective in the NHL in that regard because the quality of competition will be much higher, but he certainly has the pedigree to be a good player in the dot. If I'm the Oilers, I acknowledge the fact that my number one center has got to be extremely proficient on draws, especially because of the relative weakness of the team in that area. If this draft pick is going to be used to upgrade the team, Couturier can help the dismal performance on faceoffs.
Conversely, while I can't say that Nugent-Hopkins is obviously inferior in the dot, I think that implication is there, if only because Couturier is so good. More importantly, though, is this: Nugent-Hopkins gets the majority of his points on the powerplay, and that’s when he is most dangerous. He plays the point forRed Deer
Points: On the surface of it Nugent-Hopkins looks like a more dangerous offensive threat than Couturier, going 31-75-106 this year while Couturier went 36-60-96. However, Couturier played 11 fewer games than Nugent-Hopkins did. In terms of points per game, Couturier's number is better at 1.66 ppg, while Nugent-Hopkins scored at 1.54 ppg. Had Couturier played the same 69 games that Nugent-Hopkins did, he would have been on pace for 114 points. Therefore, Couturier is just as, if not more dangerous offensively than the highly touted RNH. Allowances must be made for Nugent-Hopkins though, because the WHL is a better league than the QMJHL, but there has apparently been improvement in the latter league in recent years. In addition, last season Couturier was the first 17 year old to lead the QMJHL in scoring since Sidney Crosby. He’s notCrosby , but that’s still quite impressive.
Jonathan Willis wrote an interesting piece back in February warning against Nugent-Hopkins, which can be found here:
http://flamesnation.ca/2011/2/5/the-first-overall-pick-avoid-nugent-hopkins
It's interesting to see just how much of Nugent-Hopkins' offense comes on the powerplay, and how much less he scores at even strength. As I said before, if Nugent-Hopkins isn't taking (and winning) the majority of the powerplay draws, he won't be able to help the Oilers' powerplay as much as someone who can.
Edit: Nugent-Hopkins scored 54% of his total offence on the powerplay this year, at 10-48-58 with the man advantage. 34% of Couturier's offence came on the powerplay, at 9-24-33, and yet Couturier still scored more points per game than RNH.
World Juniors: Sean Couturier was the only undrafted player who suited up forCanada Canada
Nugent-Hopkins did not make the team, which doesn't mean that he won't be a good player, but it speaks to his readiness and it also gives an indication of which center teamCanada
Size: I've said before in a previous post that I think Nugent-Hopkins could play in the NHL next year. I watched most of the Edmonton-Red Deer playoff series, and I went to the final game on Thursday, and I didn't see much evidence that RNH was being physically dominated by larger players. Granted, the NHL is a whole other animal, but if another year of Junior is intended to teach him how not to get punished physically, I think it would be largely needless. Having said that, many people - including Ray Ferarro, who has known RNH since he was very young - believe that he needs another year of seasoning in the WHL to get fully prepared for the big show.
I don't think there's much debate that Sean Couturier is ready to play in the NHL now. At 6'4", 191 lbs, he's built like a man at 18, and his skills are probably ready to be refined in the best league in the world. At the end of the day, Couturier is always going to be physically larger than Nugent-Hopkins. If the Oilers want the player they draft to make some immediate impact, Couturier might be it, though as I said I think that in a pinch RNH could play in 2011-12.
Speed: The last time I saw Sean Couturier play was back at the World Juniors inBuffalo
I watchedRed Deer
Having said that, skating is one thing that can be improved with proper coaching and practice if a player is committed enough. Jarret Stoll is a fine example of that.
Plus/Minus: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins finished the season as a +30. Sean Couturier finished as a +55. Many people say that the plus/minus stat is overblown in terms of importance, but that's a fairly significant differential at almost double by Couturier. +55 was the best total on the Voltigeurs, while RNH's +30 was third best on his team. Only Jonathan Huberdeau had a better plus/minus in the entire Quebec League than Couturier at +59, though given the same amount of games played, Couturier would have been on pace to outscore him. Moreover, for what it’s worth, Huberdeau was playing on the best overall team in the league, while the Voltigeurs were fourth-best. Nugent-Hopkins’ Red Deer Rebels were second-best in the WHL. In four playoff games each so far, Nugent-Hopkins is a +2, while Couturier is a +9.
I have to believe that these numbers indicate a stronger all-around game from Couturier over Nugent-Hopkins, at least for the time being. As I have said previously, Nugent-Hopkins' two-way play didn't astound me from what little I've seen. He's an offensive dynamo, especially on the powerplay, but he's less useful at even strength. Not that he isn't a threat 5x5, because he is, but Couturier seems to be more so.
This stat in particular helps me to quantify which player is more of the total package, and a #1 center must be committed and effective at both ends of the ice. At the very least, the plus/minus illustrates how much of the two players’ offense is generated at even strength, since powerplay goals do not count in plus/minus. If Nugent-Hopkins scored more points at even strength his plus would be higher.
Overall impression: Naturally, the trick to scouting is to project which player is going to be the best five-to-ten years from now, not necessarily which one is the best today. My goal in this draft primer is not to suggest that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Adam Larsson are going to be bad players, because I believe that both will likely be good. In fact, five-to-ten years from now, Larsson may prove to be the best player taken from this group, but I’ve already explained why I don’t favor him as a pick by the Oilers. I also think that Nugent-Hopkins will be a quality NHL player, though when he makes the big time I'm not 100% convinced that it will be as a center. I'm not a scout, and I've only seen him play a handful of times, but I think there's a chance that he may be moved to the wing at some point. I may end up being totally off on that, but even if he does move to the wing, there's nothing wrong with that. He'll still be a good player, just not the player that the Oilers need.
Even if Nugent-Hopkins does remain a center throughout his career, I think Sean Couturier could be a better one overall. He's solid on draws, his plus/minus suggests that he understands the two-way play required to be successful as a centerman, and right now he is still the most dangerous offensive threat in the draft when it comes to points per game. That includes Huberdeau and Strome. If I'm building a team, I want my number one center to be proficient in all areas, and I believe that Couturier is. Questions about his foot speed remain, but throughout his hockey career he's shown a willingness to refine his skills, and skating will be no different if he wants to make an impact at the next level. The question marks about Couturier involve his skating, but when it comes to Nugent-Hopkins the most glaring questions are about how he scores his points, and just how that will translate to the NHL. This is a fundamental that cannot be ignored, regardless of the obvious skill of the player.
It should be noted that Couturier battled mononucleosis this year, and still managed to perform at a very high level. It's possible that some of the knocks that have come against him down the stretch could be attributed to that. He possesses a rare mix of size and skill, and for me his faceoff ability makes him especially attractive. He’s the total package, and I think he’s the best fit forEdmonton
None of these top players have the kind of game-breaking, jaw-dropping star power of a Taylor Hall or Steven Stamkos. Watching Nugent-Hopkins play is interesting because he’s methodical, he doesn’t seem to showboat all that much, and you don’t notice him until he’s done something impressive. Just like everyone else, I’ve seen Couturier and Larsson play, but living inWestern Canada I haven’t seen either one as much as RNH. For me, none of them has wowed me with sheer talent enough to warrant a first overall ranking, and that seems to be true for scouts too. Hence the debate. But when I really broke it down, I decided that if I had to make a decision for the Oilers my pick would be Sean Couturier of the Drummondville Voltigeurs.
I hope the Oilers don’t let his slipping draft status deter them from taking him. Then again, men whose livelihoods depend on guessing right are going to be making this decision. Stu McGregor has given Oiler fans a lot of faith over the past three drafts, so if the Oilers pick a different player I will assume that that was the right pick until proven otherwise. For now, for me, Couturier is it.
The winner is...
Sean Couturier!
This decision is based on who I think will be the best pick for the Oilers; not necessarily who I think that they will select, and not necessarily who I think will be the best player taken. Gabriel Landeskog may end up as the best player of the bunch, but I didn’t seriously consider him because he doesn’t really address a team need for the Oilers. Then again, a player taken in the fourth round may end up as the best of the whole draft class, and there is no clear #1, which is why I’m picking based on need.
I grant you that the CHL playoffs are far from over and both Couturier's Voltigeurs and Nugent-Hopkins’ Rebels swept their first round series', but I still think I've got enough now to make my final decision. Why, in my mind, does Couturier beat out Nugent-Hopkins? There are several reasons:
Faceoffs: I've heard nothing but solid figures when it comes to Couturier's faceoff numbers, with him sometimes winning as much as 60% of his draws. It's likely that he won't immediately be as effective in the NHL in that regard because the quality of competition will be much higher, but he certainly has the pedigree to be a good player in the dot. If I'm the Oilers, I acknowledge the fact that my number one center has got to be extremely proficient on draws, especially because of the relative weakness of the team in that area. If this draft pick is going to be used to upgrade the team, Couturier can help the dismal performance on faceoffs.
Conversely, while I can't say that Nugent-Hopkins is obviously inferior in the dot, I think that implication is there, if only because Couturier is so good. More importantly, though, is this: Nugent-Hopkins gets the majority of his points on the powerplay, and that’s when he is most dangerous. He plays the point for
Points: On the surface of it Nugent-Hopkins looks like a more dangerous offensive threat than Couturier, going 31-75-106 this year while Couturier went 36-60-96. However, Couturier played 11 fewer games than Nugent-Hopkins did. In terms of points per game, Couturier's number is better at 1.66 ppg, while Nugent-Hopkins scored at 1.54 ppg. Had Couturier played the same 69 games that Nugent-Hopkins did, he would have been on pace for 114 points. Therefore, Couturier is just as, if not more dangerous offensively than the highly touted RNH. Allowances must be made for Nugent-Hopkins though, because the WHL is a better league than the QMJHL, but there has apparently been improvement in the latter league in recent years. In addition, last season Couturier was the first 17 year old to lead the QMJHL in scoring since Sidney Crosby. He’s not
Jonathan Willis wrote an interesting piece back in February warning against Nugent-Hopkins, which can be found here:
http://flamesnation.ca/2011/2/5/the-first-overall-pick-avoid-nugent-hopkins
It's interesting to see just how much of Nugent-Hopkins' offense comes on the powerplay, and how much less he scores at even strength. As I said before, if Nugent-Hopkins isn't taking (and winning) the majority of the powerplay draws, he won't be able to help the Oilers' powerplay as much as someone who can.
Edit: Nugent-Hopkins scored 54% of his total offence on the powerplay this year, at 10-48-58 with the man advantage. 34% of Couturier's offence came on the powerplay, at 9-24-33, and yet Couturier still scored more points per game than RNH.
World Juniors: Sean Couturier was the only undrafted player who suited up for
Nugent-Hopkins did not make the team, which doesn't mean that he won't be a good player, but it speaks to his readiness and it also gives an indication of which center team
Size: I've said before in a previous post that I think Nugent-Hopkins could play in the NHL next year. I watched most of the Edmonton-Red Deer playoff series, and I went to the final game on Thursday, and I didn't see much evidence that RNH was being physically dominated by larger players. Granted, the NHL is a whole other animal, but if another year of Junior is intended to teach him how not to get punished physically, I think it would be largely needless. Having said that, many people - including Ray Ferarro, who has known RNH since he was very young - believe that he needs another year of seasoning in the WHL to get fully prepared for the big show.
I don't think there's much debate that Sean Couturier is ready to play in the NHL now. At 6'4", 191 lbs, he's built like a man at 18, and his skills are probably ready to be refined in the best league in the world. At the end of the day, Couturier is always going to be physically larger than Nugent-Hopkins. If the Oilers want the player they draft to make some immediate impact, Couturier might be it, though as I said I think that in a pinch RNH could play in 2011-12.
Speed: The last time I saw Sean Couturier play was back at the World Juniors in
I watched
Having said that, skating is one thing that can be improved with proper coaching and practice if a player is committed enough. Jarret Stoll is a fine example of that.
Plus/Minus: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins finished the season as a +30. Sean Couturier finished as a +55. Many people say that the plus/minus stat is overblown in terms of importance, but that's a fairly significant differential at almost double by Couturier. +55 was the best total on the Voltigeurs, while RNH's +30 was third best on his team. Only Jonathan Huberdeau had a better plus/minus in the entire Quebec League than Couturier at +59, though given the same amount of games played, Couturier would have been on pace to outscore him. Moreover, for what it’s worth, Huberdeau was playing on the best overall team in the league, while the Voltigeurs were fourth-best. Nugent-Hopkins’ Red Deer Rebels were second-best in the WHL. In four playoff games each so far, Nugent-Hopkins is a +2, while Couturier is a +9.
I have to believe that these numbers indicate a stronger all-around game from Couturier over Nugent-Hopkins, at least for the time being. As I have said previously, Nugent-Hopkins' two-way play didn't astound me from what little I've seen. He's an offensive dynamo, especially on the powerplay, but he's less useful at even strength. Not that he isn't a threat 5x5, because he is, but Couturier seems to be more so.
This stat in particular helps me to quantify which player is more of the total package, and a #1 center must be committed and effective at both ends of the ice. At the very least, the plus/minus illustrates how much of the two players’ offense is generated at even strength, since powerplay goals do not count in plus/minus. If Nugent-Hopkins scored more points at even strength his plus would be higher.
Overall impression: Naturally, the trick to scouting is to project which player is going to be the best five-to-ten years from now, not necessarily which one is the best today. My goal in this draft primer is not to suggest that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Adam Larsson are going to be bad players, because I believe that both will likely be good. In fact, five-to-ten years from now, Larsson may prove to be the best player taken from this group, but I’ve already explained why I don’t favor him as a pick by the Oilers. I also think that Nugent-Hopkins will be a quality NHL player, though when he makes the big time I'm not 100% convinced that it will be as a center. I'm not a scout, and I've only seen him play a handful of times, but I think there's a chance that he may be moved to the wing at some point. I may end up being totally off on that, but even if he does move to the wing, there's nothing wrong with that. He'll still be a good player, just not the player that the Oilers need.
Even if Nugent-Hopkins does remain a center throughout his career, I think Sean Couturier could be a better one overall. He's solid on draws, his plus/minus suggests that he understands the two-way play required to be successful as a centerman, and right now he is still the most dangerous offensive threat in the draft when it comes to points per game. That includes Huberdeau and Strome. If I'm building a team, I want my number one center to be proficient in all areas, and I believe that Couturier is. Questions about his foot speed remain, but throughout his hockey career he's shown a willingness to refine his skills, and skating will be no different if he wants to make an impact at the next level. The question marks about Couturier involve his skating, but when it comes to Nugent-Hopkins the most glaring questions are about how he scores his points, and just how that will translate to the NHL. This is a fundamental that cannot be ignored, regardless of the obvious skill of the player.
It should be noted that Couturier battled mononucleosis this year, and still managed to perform at a very high level. It's possible that some of the knocks that have come against him down the stretch could be attributed to that. He possesses a rare mix of size and skill, and for me his faceoff ability makes him especially attractive. He’s the total package, and I think he’s the best fit for
None of these top players have the kind of game-breaking, jaw-dropping star power of a Taylor Hall or Steven Stamkos. Watching Nugent-Hopkins play is interesting because he’s methodical, he doesn’t seem to showboat all that much, and you don’t notice him until he’s done something impressive. Just like everyone else, I’ve seen Couturier and Larsson play, but living in
I hope the Oilers don’t let his slipping draft status deter them from taking him. Then again, men whose livelihoods depend on guessing right are going to be making this decision. Stu McGregor has given Oiler fans a lot of faith over the past three drafts, so if the Oilers pick a different player I will assume that that was the right pick until proven otherwise. For now, for me, Couturier is it.
Friday, 1 April 2011
04/01/11 9.0 Tremblay
I really hope this isn't an April Fool's gag.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2011/03/31/oilers_tremblay/
Unless I'm mistaken, that one year deal would be for the current year. He'll have the biggest tryout of his life in OKC. He's not huge size-wise, but he's not a smurf either at 5'11", 200lbs. And man, those numbers.
In 27 games last year he went 25-32-57, which is enormous for a college player. 22-22-44 in 27 games this year is still extremely solid.
He's yet to play an NHL game and he wasn't drafted. Do those big numbers of his translate at the NHL or AHL level? We'll see.
What I really love about this signing, along with the signings of Tanner House and Taylor Fedun, is that the Oilers are adding relatively high-end players from college without having to expend draft picks. All really good NHL teams do this, and those that are the best at finding hidden gems tend to be more successful. All of the last four Stanley Cup Champions had at least one undrafted player on them, many of whom were signed out of college. Also, New Jersey was particularly good in this regard, plucking John Madden and Brian Rafalski from obscurity.
If just one of these guys pans out for the Oilers it will be a great gamble, since the risk is low and the reward is potentially so high. Even if these guys only end up as AHLers, it's a big boost for the Barons, who are in a bit of a transitional period right now. Some of the best players of OKC are largely ready for the NHL and many have made the jump, but in a lot of cases the quality players the Oilers have drafted aren't ready for the AHL just yet. These college signings will, at the very least, shore up the holes that might exist down on the farm and also give management some potential options for the parent club.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2011/03/31/oilers_tremblay/
Unless I'm mistaken, that one year deal would be for the current year. He'll have the biggest tryout of his life in OKC. He's not huge size-wise, but he's not a smurf either at 5'11", 200lbs. And man, those numbers.
In 27 games last year he went 25-32-57, which is enormous for a college player. 22-22-44 in 27 games this year is still extremely solid.
He's yet to play an NHL game and he wasn't drafted. Do those big numbers of his translate at the NHL or AHL level? We'll see.
What I really love about this signing, along with the signings of Tanner House and Taylor Fedun, is that the Oilers are adding relatively high-end players from college without having to expend draft picks. All really good NHL teams do this, and those that are the best at finding hidden gems tend to be more successful. All of the last four Stanley Cup Champions had at least one undrafted player on them, many of whom were signed out of college. Also, New Jersey was particularly good in this regard, plucking John Madden and Brian Rafalski from obscurity.
If just one of these guys pans out for the Oilers it will be a great gamble, since the risk is low and the reward is potentially so high. Even if these guys only end up as AHLers, it's a big boost for the Barons, who are in a bit of a transitional period right now. Some of the best players of OKC are largely ready for the NHL and many have made the jump, but in a lot of cases the quality players the Oilers have drafted aren't ready for the AHL just yet. These college signings will, at the very least, shore up the holes that might exist down on the farm and also give management some potential options for the parent club.
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