07/11/11 50.0 By the Numbers: Can The Oilers Make the Playoffs?

Hemsky scores series winning goal in 2006

Remember when Hemsky scored that goal? Remember that jubilation? Of course you do. The Edmonton Oilers are hoping to give their fans that feeling again sooner rather than later, and it will all start with making the playoffs next season for the first time since 2006.

Is it possible? One way to quantify the amount of improvement the Oilers will need is to look at the statistics of playoff teams and compare them to what our boys managed last year. Not surprisingly, the Oilers are at or near the bottom of the league in almost every meaningful category, so this comparison will try to illustrate the minimum amount of improvement necessary to grab a playoff spot.

The five categories we will focus on are Powerplay (PP%), Penalty Kill (PK%), Goals For per Game (G/G), Goals Against per Game (GA/G) and Faceoff Winning Percentage (FOW%).

The Phoenix Coyotes got themselves a playoff berth despite a poor showing statistically. They finished 23rd in powerplay efficiency (15.9%) and 26th in penalty killing (78.4%). They were also mediocre in Goals For (2.76) and Goals Against per game (2.68), finishing at 14th and 13th in the league respectively. One area of strength for the Yotes was in faceoffs, where as a team they finished 7th in the NHL (51.5%). Most of the teams that made the playoffs last year were strong on draws, and the ones that weren't generally got ousted in the first round.

(As an aside: Nashville reached the second round and won 50.2% of their draws during the regular season. Every team below that winning percentage mark went out in round one: the Sabres (47.7%), Ducks (47.7%), Rangers (47.7%), Canadiens (49.0%) and Penguins (49.2%). However, we'll deal with getting the Oilers past round one once they finally make the dance.)

Because of all that mediocrity in Phoenix, the loss of Ilya Bryzgalov and the games he stole them will be felt deeply in the win/loss columns next season. The Coyotes will probably miss the playoffs this coming year, and the Oilers could steal their spot.

However, the Oilers have a bit of a climb even to reach Phoenix's numbers. The Oilers were 27th on the powerplay at 14.5%, 29th on the penalty kill at 77.0%, 28th in Goals For per Game at 2.33, and 28th in Goals Against per Game at 3.17. The Oilers were dead last in faceoffs won, at just 44.2% for the team.

To get to Phoenix's totals the Oilers would have needed to score roughly 4 more powerplay goals, and allow roughly 5 fewer goals while shorthanded. Not bad at all, and definitely doable. But keep in mind that the Coyotes were one of the weakest statistical teams in the playoffs and it showed in their first round sweep by Detroit.

Phoenix scored 38 more goals than the Oilers, and the Oilers allowed 43 more than the Coyotes, for a differential of 81 goals. This stat won't be so easy for Edmonton to swing.

The Rest of the West:

No team in the Western Conference made the playoffs last year without:

- Scoring at least 219 goals (26 more than the Oilers scored)
- Allowing no more than 241 goals (28 less than the Oilers allowed)
- Winning at least 47.7% of their faceoffs (3.5% more than the Oilers won)
- A powerplay clicking at no less than 15.2% (0.7% better than the Oilers)
- A penalty kill that was effective no less than 78.4% (1.4% better than the Oilers)

The emergence of Taylor Hall and the other youngsters should help the Oilers to score at least 26 more goals, particularly if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can make an impact. The same is true for the powerplay; which was much maligned last year but should be able to make up the 0.7% difference between the Oilers and the weakest playoff powerplay in the West.

Replacing Colin Fraser's faceoff numbers among the Oilers' regular centerman with Eric Belanger also makes a difference. If we assume that the Oilers' centers last year were most often Gagner, Horcoff, Cogliano and Fraser, those four combine for a winning percentage of 44.6%. Simply by removing Fraser and inserting Belanger the overall winning percentage for the regular centers jumps to 47.3%. If Gagner can take a step forward and Horcoff can bounce back, the Oilers shouldn't have any problem winning faceoffs at least 47.7% of the time.

Having control of the puck will also help on the PK, which should improve enough to at least match the worst powerplay in the Western Conference Playoffs this year.

On the Other Hand

All of the teams that were bad statistically and still made the playoffs either had spectacular goaltending (Nashville and Phoenix), or they excelled in another area. For example, the Detroit Red Wings were 17th on the PK and 23rd in GA/G, but they were 5th on the PP and 2nd in G/G.

The Oilers probably do not have the ability to make a leap into the top five or ten in any one of these categories next year, and their goaltending is suspect to say the least. Because of that, it's still highly unlikely that the team will make next year's playoffs.

But it's not all doom and gloom. Management has made changes that will help this team with all of its weaknesses, save goaltending. If the team picks up steam and is in contention for a spot in February, the Oilers could be buyers at the deadline and add a piece or two to get over the top. If not, one more season of picking in the top 14 won't hurt the prospect cupboard, and will make for even more flexibility in future trades when the Oilers are right on the cusp.

Don't hold your breath for the post season, but get ready to watch more winning hockey than this town has seen in the last several years.

07/11/11 11.7 Odds & Ends: Fraser and Injuries, Hemsky, Hannan

Dean Lombardi

By now you're all aware of the fact that Dean Lombardi has publicly blasted the Oilers for trading him an injured Colin Fraser. We can be fairly certain that Steve Tambellini didn't knowingly do this, because it doesn't really do him any good. Tambellini doesn't want to earn a reputation that will make it hard for teams to trade with him, and Colin Fraser was not a guy who had to go because he was handcuffing the team.The Oilers' doctors cleared Fraser to play, and the Kings' doctors insist that he needs surgery. This brings up an interesting thought on the quality of Edmonton's medical staff.

Without specifically calling out any doctor in particular, one has to wonder why the Oilers have seen such a high rate of players being re-injured. Sheldon Souray and Ales Hemsky are two players who have experienced this while playing for the Oilers. Both played while their bodies were clearly not fully healed, and minor contact reinjued them. Hemsky has done this multiple times this season alone; first with his groin and then his shoulder. Souray alluded to this phenomenon when he came out and asked for a trade, saying:

"I wasn’t even ready to play when I came here, but it was like, ‘We signed you, you go out and play.’ I hadn’t been cleared to play yet, but I was being questioned by the organization:‘When are you going to be able to play?'"

The organization denies these claims, but Souray was eventually cleared to play by the medical staff, only to reinjure himself.

There have been other examples recently as well. We can only speculate, but what would have happened if Fraser wasn't traded and the season started tomorrow? Colin Fraser would apparently have been cleared to play, and the chances of him aggravating an unhealed injury would have been high. Part of this comes from the players themselves lying about how hurt they are, but in the end the medical staff has to be competent enough to make the right calls on a player's health.

If Steve Tambellini has no motive to ruin his reputation around the league by lying to Dean Lombardi, that leaves the medical staff that examined Fraser as the culprits. How can there be such a chasm between the opinion of two medical staffs? And what would have been the status of other injured Oilers if they had been on another team?

Other Headlines:

Speaking of Ales Hemsky, there have been some more rumblings that the Oilers might trade the skilled winger. Or, probably more accurately, the team is getting calls about him because he's seen as being potentially available.

Hemsky's recent comments about the direction the team is going and about the city of Edmonton are encouraging signs that he wants to stick around long term. Chances are good that Oilers management wants that as well. There isn't much top-end talent to be had right now, either by trade or free agency and the Oilers have Hemsky locked up for another year. That means that they can sit back and ask whatever they want and if teams don't like it, the Oilers will just keep #83.

The fact is that if the Oilers were to trade Hemsky they would have to replace him somewhere down the line. Aside from Linus Omark, who is as yet unproven in the NHL, there isn't anyone to really take over for Hemsky in the Oilers' system. Hemsky is to Edmonton what Marian Hossa is to Chicago, in that he's the type of winger that could put the team over the top one day, even if he's been passed at that time by Jordan Eberle. The only reason to trade Hemsky right now is to diversify the attack and/or plug holes. If the trade massively upgraded the Oilers' defense, then the team could live without Hemsky; otherwise he isn't going anywhere. The organization seems determined to make a drive for the playoffs next year, so moving Hemsky for picks in next year's draft looks like a big time long shot, unless the team flounders next year.



Scott Hannan and Ryan Smyth

 Just because a player isn't signed by the middle of July doesn't mean that he won't get signed. Teams must be low-balling Scott Hannan right now, since he has slowed down some in the last few years. There has been a little speculation that the Oilers could target the 32 year old defenseman, and having Ryan Smyth back obviously wouldn't hurt in that regard. There are things about this move that would make sense.

Hannan is a plus-25 over his career, while shutting down some of the best players that the opposition hurled at him. He's nowhere near the player that he was when the above picture was taken, but he would be a steadying force on the Oilers' blueline. Defense is the one area where the Oilers are still really working out the kinks, and the team is without a tested shutdown player on the backend. Hannan solves that problem, temporarily of course, and would be a decent enough stop-gap until a long term replacement like Colten Tuebert is ready for duty.

On the other hand, it basically guarantees that Jeff Petry will start next season in Oklahoma, since he would have to fight his way past Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Peckham, Barker, Sutton and potentially Hannan. He would be a good first call up though, and when he's on the farm Petry would be munching up big minutes.

The good news is that if the Oilers decide that they want to go in this type of direction, there are plenty of free agent defensemen who fit the bill as veteran stop-gap types. Also available are Brent Sopel and Bryan McCabe. Sopel won a Cup with Chicago, so he might be open to playing for a team that has finished 30th in back to back years. His shot blocking skill is something that would be great to instill in the rest of Edmonton's blueliners. He's 34, but he can still be effective in his role. McCabe still managed 28 points in 67 games last year and he comes with a booming shot from the point, depsite his 36 years of age. He's never won a Cup though, so he'll probably try to sign with a contender if one will have him.

If the Oilers don't decide to add a defenseman, it will be an interesting experiment with the blueline in 2011-12, but in the end it could pay dividends to give ice time to younger players. We'll see what direction management decides to go, and how serious they are about playoffs next year.

07/08/11 49.0 Hope For Gagner In Faceoffs

 

Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano

Once billed as both being future cornerstones, it's likely that only one of the players above will remain with the Edmonton Oilers beyond this season. Management has a decision to make when it comes to which player they should keep. In all likelihood it will be Sam Gagner who stays a part of the organization, with the hope of one day being a top end second line center. Gagner's game is still a work in progress, but he does have the offensive tools to be effective in the NHL. One glaring hole so far has been his ability to win a faceoff - something that he must be able to do in order to stick at center long term.

In today's NHL the centers that are considered elite have a good all-around game, and they can usually win draws at a high rate. Contrary to what seems to be the popular opinion, strength in the dot is not something that comes easily to most players right away. It isn't a skill that can translate as easily from junior hockey, like stickhandling or skating can. Most of the centers that we now think of as elite were not always that way when it comes to taking draws. Here are a few examples.

Ryan Kesler

 Ryan Kesler is the perfect player to start with. Kesler is coming off a regular season in which he scored 41 goals and 32 assists for 73 points in 82 games. In that time, he won 57.4% of the draws he took, and he's considered a fantastic second line center. He's exactly the type of pivot that a championship team has on line number two. Here is how Kesler's faceoff ability progressed over his career:

2003-04: 40.2%, 2005-06: 46.8%, 2006-07: 46.1%, 2007-08: 53.0%, 2008-09: 54.0%, 2009-10: 55.1%, 2010-11: 57.4%

It was only in his fourth season that Kesler won more draws than he lost, and now he is extremely effective in the discipline. In fact, he even took a step back in 2006-07, the season before he won 53% of his draws for the first time. He was actually 23 in his fourth season because of the 2004-05 NHL lockout.


Manny Malhotra

 Long before a puck to the eye would threaten Manny Malhotra's career - requiring him to wear the facial protection pictured above in the playoffs - the New York Rangers selected the centerman 7th overall in 1998. Malhotra is considered one of, if not the best faceoff man in the entire league. This past season he won 61.7% of his draws, and a career high 62.5% the year before that. Here is his career progression in the dot:

1998-99: 43.9%, 1999-00: 44.7%, 2000-01: 44.4%, 2001-02: 45.9%, 2002-03: 47.0%, 2003-04: 57.7%, 2005-06: 56.4%, 2006-07: 55.1%, 2007-08: 59.0%, 2008-09: 58.0%, 2009-10: 62.5%, 2010-11: 61.7%'

In his first five seasons (albeit only 27 games in 1999-00), Malhotra looked as hopeless in the faceoff circle as Sam Gagner looks now. He was 23 years old before he was able to win draws on a consistent basis, and he hasn't looked back since.



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The Datsyukian One, seen here making Marty Turco look silly, is another example of a good faceoff man and a very complete player. Last year he won 54.6% of his draws, but in his first two years in the league he was less than 50%; winning 47.7% and 48.2% in 2001-02 and 2002-03. Since then he's been as good on draws as he is at everything else. Datsyuk is a truly special talent, and arguably the best player in the league today. To compare Sam Gagner to Datsyuk is extremely unfair, but the Russian's medioce showing on faceoffs to start his career shows just how difficult it can be to master. Datsyuk was 25 before he was above 50% on draws.


Shawn Horcoff

 Every fan in Oil Country knows that without the current captain, the Oilers would have been sunk when it comes to faceoffs over the last several seasons. Up until Eric Belanger came on board, Horcoff was the team's only option. But even he took some time to find a groove in the faceoff circle.

In his first three years in the league, Horcoff won 41.8%, 46.3%, and 42.9% of the draws he took. He actually took a large step backward right before winning 50.6% in 2003-04. That year started a run of 5 consecutive seasons of 50% or better for Horcoff, but his recent status as the Oilers' only faceoff man has seen his numbers dip to 46.4% and 48.3% over the last two years. Nevertheless, he's another example of a faceoff guy who took a little while to get there. He was 25 years old before he got above 50%.

***

Sam Gagner is 22 in August and has had career faceoff stats of:

2007-08: 41.8%

2008-09: 42.0%

2009-10: 47.7%

2010-11: 43.8%

Don't let his fall back in faceoff percentage fool you into thinking he'll never get over 50%. As has been shown, even some of the league's better faceoff men have taken steps back before getting over the hump. 

Winning draws is one of the tougher things to do in the NHL. Not only does it require physical strength against men that are much older than a raw rookie, it also takes an enormous amount of desire on the part of the player and some help from his linemates to win the scramble draws.

There's no guarantee that Sam Gagner will ever win more than 50% of the draws he takes on a consistent basis, nor is there any that he'll be a top faceoff man in the league. On the other hand, his numbers to this point aren't necessarily indicative of how good he will eventually be. There's still plenty of time for him to round into a complete NHL centerman.

07/06/11 48.0 Trade Value: Tom Gilbert

There has been a little idle chatter that Oilers defenseman Tom Gilbert could be shipped out of town. This article in The Columbus Dispatch - which came out before the Draft and the Jeff Carter trade - mentions Gilbert being one of a number of defensemen that are possibly available, and there have been some other rumblings about him being shopped. Apparently no move is imminent and nothing is likely to come of it, but what is Tom Gilbert's value on the trade market right now?

In order to find out, we need to see what the trade of a comparable player fetched; preferably as recently as yesterday. And what's this? Carolina trades Joe Corvo to Boston for a fourth round pick on July 5th? Splendid!

Joe Corvo

 Joe Corvo amounts to an NHL veteran now, having played 568 games in the league since the 2002-03 season. In that time, he's amassed a total of 79-179-258, or 0.45 points per game. He's 34 years old and he is entering the final year of a two year contract with a cap hit of $2.25 million.

In comparison, Tom Gilbert has played 337 games and collected 30-111-141, or 0.42 points per game. Gilbert is 6 years younger than Corvo at 28, but his contract is much richer - 3 years left at a $4 million cap hit.

Part of the attractiveness of a player like Corvo to a team like Boston is that his contract only has one more year left on it for a relatively small amount of money. Gilbert, on the other hand, carries that $4 million hit like a boat anchor, and any team that wants to trade for him is stuck with it for another 3 seasons. Worse, Gilbert will be paid $5 million in actual dollars next year, but his salary does drop to $3.5 and $3 million after that.

The difference in average offensive production between Gilbert and Corvo is basically negligible, even though Corvo has more average points and a larger sample size to show that he can sustain it.

Corvo finished as a minus-14 last year, and he's been a minus player in each of the last three seasons. Tom Gilbert's only year as a plus player was in 2008-09, when he was plus-6. However, he was playing for the Oilers his whole career, after all. He too was a minus-14 last year. Over their two careers, Corvo is a plus-25 and Gilbert is a minus-25, but recent history has been quite similar between the two:

Corvo: +4 (2007-08), -1 (2008-09), -10 (2009-10), -14 (2010-11)
Gilbert: -6 (2007-08), +6 (2008-09), -10 (2009-10), -14 (2010-11)

Joe Corvo fetched the Hurricanes a fourth round pick in next year's draft, and it seems likely that the value for a player like Tom Gilbert has now been set. What Gilbert makes up in age, he loses in contract term and cap hit. Otherwise the two players are quite similar statistically so what each could fetch in a trade is probably quite close.

The only way that the Oilers part with Gilbert for a fourth round pick is if they somehow acquire a player that they think can be an upgrade over the Minnesota native; or if they suddenly believe one of the youngsters on the farm can play full time and they want to shed salary. The Hurricanes signed Tomas Kaberle who is a medium-term player for them, and who is an upgrade over Corvo. The possibility of the Oilers finding a medium-to-long-term upgrade over Gilbert can be classified as unlikely at this point, so there's every chance that he will not be traded.

That is, unless Gilbert is part of a trade package that must include a defenseman because the Oilers are getting a better one in return. If the Oilers make a trade to upgrade the defense, don't be surprised if Tom Gilbert goes the other way; both to make the money work out and because Gilbert's skills are so overlapped on this team. In that case, his value is actually better than a mere fourth rounder because he can step into a team's lineup right away. However, the crux of any trade involving Gilbert will probably not be him, but whatever piece the Oilers give up in order to upgrade their blueline.

***

All told, the value of a player like Gilbert or Corvo is not especially high, despite the lack of defensemen that are available right now. The Oilers know that their blueline isn't good enough, but they aren't likely to part with any of Whitney, Peckham, Petry, Smid, Barker or Sutton. That makes Gilbert the odd man out if a trade is to involve an established NHL defenseman swap, so he's the most likely piece to get shuffled out the door. Still, if the deal doesn't upgrade the backend significantly, expect the Oilers to stand pat.

07/04/11 47.0 The Best and Worst Free Agent Signings

Ville Leino

Every playoff year there is a forward who comes out of nowhere and manages to put up huge numbers. Oilers fans know all about it. Fernando Pisani scored 14 goals in 24 playoff games in 2006; this year Joel Ward surprised with 13 points in 12 playoff games and so did Sean Bergenheim with 9 goals in 16 games. These players tend to cash in on that success with bloated contracts, and this year is no exception. The man pictured above is one forward who had a fantastic playoff in 2009-10 with 21 points in 19 games, and his resulting contract is one of the worst signed so far this summer.

The Worst

Ville Leino: Has to top this list. Born the same year as Ales Hemsky, Leino has played only 149 regular season NHL games. He's a late bloomer if ever there was one, and is another undrafted gem uncovered by the Red Wings. In 2009-10 Leino had 7 points in 42 games for Detroit before being traded to Philadelphia where he scored 2 goals and 2 assists in 13 games. He started the playoffs in the press box and then set the world on fire after injuries got him into the lineup. He's coming off a career high 19-34-53 season for the Flyers, but that doesn't justify his 6 year, $27 million contract with Buffalo.

The deal pays Leino $4.5 million for 6 seasons, which is a bigger average hit than that of the aforementioned Hemsky. In fact, Leino now makes as much as Buffalo's Derek Roy, who has 383 points in 469 games and had 35 points in 35 games last year. Leino will have to put up more than his current total of 73 points in 149 games to come close to justifying this deal, and if there's one thing that we have learned about big free agent signings, it's that they tend to disappoint. This contract wouldn't be so terrible if it weren't for the term, which leaves Buffalo with very few options if it doesn't work out.

Semyon Varlamov: Word is that the Oilers were interested in Varlamov, but thankfully Steve Tambellini wasn't pounding Russian vodka drinks on July 1st. The oft-injuried goalie was acquired by Colorado for a 1st round pick next year and a 2nd rounder in either 2012 or 2013. He was then signed to a three year, $8.5 million deal.

In this case it's not so much the money that is bad, but what Colorado gave up to get Varlamov definitely is. This is a team that finished second last in the NHL this year, and shouldn't be throwing away draft picks any more than the Oilers should be. To say that Varlamov will be the goaltending solution for the Avalanche may be a bit of a stretch, considering that the Russian has played only 59 regular season games in his career, along with 19 in the playoffs. His numbers are solid, but it's a small sample size. If the Avs don't want to give up a top-ten pick to Washington next year, Varlamov is going to have to be very solid. J.S. Giguere is in the final years of his career, and isn't likely to backstop Colorado out of the basement.

Erik Cole: Montreal may have helped out their depth on the wing, but at what cost? Oilers fans are familiar with how mediocre Erik Cole was the one time he ventured out of Carolina. Cole is coming off a good year that saw him score 26 goals and 26 assists, but the winger will be 33 shortly after the season starts. At 4 years and $18 million, he'll carry a cap hit of $4.5 million until he's 36 years old. Cole will take home $6 million next year, and he'll make $4 million every year after that; meaning that there won't be much savings in actual dollars over the cap hit in the later years of the deal. This contract is completely untradeable, so it doesn't hurt that he also has a No Trade Clause.

$4.5 million per year is a lot of money for a guy who has averaged 0.55 points per game over the last three seasons. It's too much even if he does score 20-25 goals, which he is unlikely to do in all the years of this deal. Barring a massive season, the Canadiens can expect perhaps 80 goals from Cole over the course of this contract, which is $225,000 per goal.

Honorable Mention:

Joel Ward: Ward belongs in the Honorable Mention section of The Worst, because he is a good two-way player, and at 30 years old he should be able to play for a while. But he isn't good enough to be worth $3 million per year for 4 years. This blog suggested that the Oilers attempt to sign Ward, but once again they dodged a bullet with this contract, which is much too rich for a player of his type.

Think back to Fernando Pisani, whose $2.5 million per year contract over 4 years was an overpayment. Ward and Pisani are similarly defensively gifted and offensively challenged. After 18 goals in 80 games for Edmonton in 2006, Pisani scored 14 in 24 playoff games. Ward had 10 goals in 80 regular season games for Nashville last year and scored 7 in 12 games in the post season. Pisani has averaged 0.37 p/g in his career, while Ward's average is 0.41. The Capitals will likely regret this signing, no matter how good Ward is at his role.

Christian Erhoff: The contract is much too rich for Erhoff, thanks to a weak free agent class. However, the fact that it is so front-loaded means that it can be moved later on if need be because the cap hit and the money will match up - Erhoff's cap hit is only $4 million. It may be a circumvention of the CBA, but Erhoff can also retire after 7 years and only leave $3 million on the table. Also, the Sabres have some ability when it comes to buying out his contract after the first few seasons are over because of how much money is paid at the start of the contract.

The Best



Tomas Vokoun

 Tomas Vokoun: The Caps redeemed the Ward deal with the signing of Vokoun, who took a massive pay cut to go to a contender. The job of any GM is to get his team over the top, and George McPhee has made another step in that direction with this deal. Vokoun is a steal at $1.5 million for one year. Even though Vokoun is extremely unlikely to re-sign, McPhee won't mind if the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. One year with a Cup banner is better than none, and that policy is being embraced with this astute signing.

Eric Belanger: This is a homer pick (this is an Oilers blog after all), but it actually is a good signing. Belanger brings a lot of what the Oilers lack and if he ends up as a fourth line player he will be a very good one. $1.75 million is a manageble cap hit and the term of three years is not bad either. Maybe a couple hundred thousand dollars more would have been too much, and so would another year of term, but the Oilers look to have gotten this one right on the money.



Ian White

 Ian White: Was a good signing for Detroit because the Red Wings helped to address the loss of Brian Rafalski, while at the same time managing to get White to take less money per year than he made last year. White will make $2,875,000 per year over two years even though he made $3 million last year. He's nowhere near the point producer that Rafalski was, but his contract is also very light. The Wings also added Mike Commodore for just $1 million, and regardless of his recent struggles, Commodore can still play up to that tiny contract. Both of these players are a downgrade for the Wings from what they had, but they don't leave Detroit strapped for cash.

***

There are probably more good and bad signings that are noteworthy (and some that aren't now but will be later on), but these are just a sample. Generally the worst deals get signed during the free agent frenzy and usually there are more bad deals than good ones. This year seems to be no different, but time will most certainly tell.

07/03/11 46.0 Sorting Through the Extras: Trade Possibilities

Andrew Cogliano

The flurry of free agent signings on July 1st and the addition of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has left the Oilers with some interesting player decisions looking toward 2011-12. The Oilers now have too many forwards going into next year, and that's something that must be addressed in the off season. The Oilers are still lacking defensively, and they have too many defensemen with similar skill sets (Petry, Gilbert, Barker, Chorney). Naturally the thing to do would be to package up some of the spare parts and parlay them into a solid defenseman, but things may not be that easy.

Assuming that Nugent-Hopkins proves doubters wrong and makes the team, the Oilers lineup could look something like this:

Hall - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle

Paajarvi - Gagner - Hemsky

Smyth - Horcoff - Omark

Jones - Belanger - Hordichuk/Eager

It's a solid group. The once lacking center position is now an area of strength for Edmonton, and it leaves both Andrew Cogliano and Gilbert Brule out of the mix. On defence, things look like this:

Whitney

Gilbert

Barker

Smid

Sutton

Peckham

Petry

Chorney

The Oilers are going to have to make a decision on Jeff Petry. Either he's shown them enough to be a full time NHLer, or they will have to send him back down to OKC and let Chorney be the 7th defenseman. Having Petry not play would be the greatest injustice to his development, so only those two options make sense.

Whitney is obviously sticking around, as he is the Oilers' number one guy. Sutton is in the plans (temporarily), and so are Barker, Peckham and Smid. As was said before, this team has too many defensemen that are similar in style, so Tom Gilbert might be on the block.

No one is likely to take Brule, so he will almost certainly be put on waivers at some point and the Oilers will go from there; unless the team keeps him for (expensive) forward depth. Right now a trade package would probably include Cogliano and Gilbert and would either be for draft picks or a defenseman. So what is that package likely to fetch?

Those players combined would represent a cap hit of aroud $5-6 million. The number is not set because Cogliano is a RFA, but he's unlikely to get more than $2 million per season. Gilbert has 3 years left on a contract that will pay him $5 million, $3.5 million and $3 million dollars with a cap hit of $4 million.

In terms of picks, Cogliano is probably worth a 3rd round pick on his own, and the same goes for Gilbert. They probably won't be packaged and traded together for picks because of the salary. Gilbert probably won't be traded unless he's part of a package to net a player, but Cogliano could be moved for a draft pick just to get his contract off the list, as teams are only allowed a total of 50 in a given year. The Oilers currently have 44, assuming that Peckham, Chorney and O'Marra are re-signed; Cogliano would make 45.

Here are some defensive targets:



Zach Bogosian

Zach Bogosian is a prime example, but Winnipeg won't move him unless they have to (that is, if he doesn't want to stay). Gilbert and Cogliano won't be near enough to get him, so the Oilers would have to include picks to make the deal work. The money, at least, would match up in this case, but it's a long shot at best. If the Oilers changed Cogliano's name to Gagner the deal would be very feasible, but they probably won't want to do that. Nothing short of Cogliano, Gilbert and next year's first round pick would get it done and it might take even more.



Jonathon Blum

There were rumors going around at the deadline that the Nashville Predators might move Jonathon Blum for Ladislav Smid, and perhaps the Oilers should look hard at a deal for the young defender. Blum was called up late in the season and had 3-5-8 in 23 games as well as a plus-8 rating. He also tallied 2 assists in 12 playoff games and was rated plus-2. He put up good numbers in the AHL and his play hasn't tailed off at the next level any more than what is to be expected against tougher competition.

Nashville may think about this move because Cogliano could help them and they only have nine forwards signed for next year. With Marcel Goc, J.P. Dumont, Steve Sullivan and Joel Ward all leaving town, Cogliano could be an attractive forward option for the Preds. The money doesn't match up, with Blum still on his $941,000 Entry Level deal, but Nashville does have the cap space. Also, Ryan Ellis (who had 100 points in 58 games for Windsor this past year) will be one step closer to NHL duty, and Gilbert prevents them from icing too raw of a defense. Naturally, Ellis would be an even better target for the Oilers, but it's hard to imagine the offensively challenged Predators parting with him.

Mark Streit

Why Streit? He may be 33 years old, but Streit managed to put up 11-38-49 in all 82 games in 2009-10. He missed the entire 2010-11 campaign with a torn labrum and rotator cuff, so there's no guarantee he would be back at 100%. On the other hand, in the three seasons before he got hurt Streit put up 167 points. He would give the Oilers another legitimate threat from the blueline, which is something that hasn't really been addressed yet. Streit has two more years left on a deal that has a cap hit of $4.1 million, which matches up perfectly with the time that the Oilers' kids will need new deals (and thus cap space freed up). Offensively, he's a big upgrade over Gilbert.

The Islanders only have 10 forwards signed for next year, so they have room for Cogliano. What's more, Gilbert can help that team long term and he's an ironman who's missed just 3 games in the past 4 years. Gilbert isn't a bad building block, but his skills are too overlapped in Edmonton. Cogliano is becoming a decent bottom-six option, and the Islanders have worked hard through the draft to fill their top six forwards.


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If Barker can turn his game around and make an impact, that will make Gilbert even more expendable. Cogliano will almost certainly be traded, but on his own the return would be small. If he can be packaged with a player like Gilbert, then there are teams out there who might make better offers. Having said that, these two don't carry enormous value on the trade market so what the Oilers and their fans want and what they actually receieve for Gilbert and Cogliano could be quite far apart indeed.

One thing is for sure: Oilers brass is going to have to make some decisions on their extra players and move them out of town accordingly.

07/02/11 45.0 Massive Upgrades

Eric Belanger

Let me start this post by advising all the men out there not to search for pictures of Eric Belanger on Google. You're going to do it now, of course, but I warned you.

So Tambellini was pulling the wool over everyone's eyes. He managed to pull of some drastic moves and hugely upgrade the bottom-six forwards on this Edmonton Oilers team. Not only is this fantastic news for the team's on-ice product, it's also a boon to the city that players are starting to choose Edmonton because they can see what is coming here. Let's look at this in terms of who these new acquisitions are replacing and judge them based on how much of an improvement that they are.

Eric Belanger: A previous post on this blog stated that there was very little chance that Belanger would sign in Edmonton. Then wham, the signing came over the wire and hit Oilers fans like a slippery fish. Apparently Belanger's comments about Winnipeg don't extend to Edmonton as well, which is more great news for the reputation of the city.

Belanger presumably replaces Colin Fraser on the roster, which almost needless to say is a tremendous improvement. Fraser had 3-2-5 in 67 games and was a minus two, while averaging 10:16 of ice time per game. He was also just 44.6% in the faceoff circle. Belanger had 13-27-40 in all 82 games, was plus-11, 55.3% on draws and averaged 17:20 of ice time per game. He also scored one goal shorthanded. The Oilers have a player in Belanger who can kill penalties, win important faceoffs and give them some flexibility in that regard beyond Shawn Horcoff. At $1.75 million for three years, he's affordable for the amount that he brings, although he will be 36 when the deal expires.

Ben Eager: Eager is exactly the kind of player that the Oilers lacked. He's a pest. He doesn't really replace anyone on the Oilers' roster because this player type was virtually non-existent since Zack Stortini has been gone. This blog suggested Jarkko Ruutu for the Oilers, but Eager is an even better option. At 27 years old, Eager should still have plenty of hockey left in him. He scored 7 goals and 10 assists in 68 games last year, splitting time between Atlanta and San Jose. When the Oilers make the playoffs again, this player will be even more valuable than he can be during the regular season. If Eager is Stortini's replacement, it's an improvement. Stortini has managed just 14-27-41 in his 256 NHL games (0.16 p/g), while Eager has 34-35-69 in 323 games (0.21 p/g).

Darcy Hordichuk: Hordichuk had ten fights last season, and he's been brought in to add toughness to the lineup. He only averaged 5:04 in ice time last year and he won't score much either at 19-19-38 in his career of 495 games. However, he should be a little more serviceable than Steve MacIntyre, who wasn't trusted to play at all by the Oilers coaching staff. He only gets a one year deal to see how it goes, which is probably best. Hordichuk has bounced around the league a bit lately, so it will be up to him to show that he can be useful enough to stick.

Andy Sutton: The kind of year that Kurtis Foster had means that fans would be ready to see him moved for anything, but Sutton is a big strong defenseman who should be able to help out. In fact, he's 6 foot 6 and 245 pounds. Despite being 36, there are things to like about Sutton. He's a solid defender who was a plus player last year. Also, his big nastiness will be on the ice for a regular shift, unlike the Oilers' previous muscle. Sutton should help the team's toughness and will be a decent mentor for a player like Theo Peckham.

Cam Barker: This signing was being talked about in the media before Barker had even been bought out by the Minnesota Wild. He's a reclamation project who should be highly motivated to prove that he can still play at the level he did in 2008-09, when he managed 40 points in 68 games for Chicago. If that happens the Oilers will have found themselves a steal in the former 3rd overall pick, but there are plenty of question marks around him. The money - $2.25 million - is much too rich for this player. It's only a pay cut of around $750,000 from last year when he was bought out, and it's the same amount of money that the Oilers just gave Ladislav Smid. Smid is now an Oilers veteran who, while not perfect, was a better player last year than Barker was. Thankfully the deal is only for one year, so if Barker can't play the Oilers wont be tied to him.

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Most of these signings are improvements over a player that is no longer in Edmonton. While they may be baby steps in some cases, the team is no doubt better than it was last season. It will be tougher and grittier (for real this time), and that's something that the team has been in dire need of.

The Oilers are now starting to eat up a little bit of that cap space they had. There's still $9 million available though, and Sutton, Hordichuk and potentially Barker will be gone next year, which frees up an additional $5.2 million. Also, the buyouts of Nilsson and Souray are eating up some space, but Nilsson's buyout is over after next year and Souray's the year after that. However, Hemsky and Smyth will need new deals after next season, and so will RFA Devan Dubnyk.

The Oilers defense is probably not set yet, but expect any changes there to come via trade. The Oilers won't want to add another contract and there aren't any real impact defenders left on the market. If they can, the Oilers may try to move out Tom Gilbert and his $4 million cap hit, and the market will be decent because of the lack of available defensemen.

Steve Tambellini has been a busy man, but he probably isn't done just yet. Should be an interesting summer, and one that will leave Oilers fans itching for the start of the season.