10/29/11 By The Numbers: After Ten Games

Ten games into the season the Edmonton Oilers are 6-2-2, good for first in their division and in the Western Conference. Let's have a look back at the 2009-10 season, where the Oilers started 6-3-1.

- This year the Oilers have put 255 shots on opposing nets, while in 2009-10 the Oilers managed 249. That's just 6 more this year over the first season the Oilers finished 30th.

- 298 shots have found their way to the Oilers' net, and in 2009-10 the Oilers allowed 338. That's 40 fewer shots this year than 2009-10.

- All told, the Oilers had a -89 shots for/against differential in 2009-10, and this year they are at -43.

Unless the team can start consistently outshooting their opponents, there's a very good chance that the wheels will fall off this early season success. Based on these numbers, things aren't as bad as that 30th place team from two years ago, but they aren't good enough to have sustained success.

- This year the Oilers have scored 8 powerplay goals on 44 opportunities, which is 18.2% efficiency. In 2009-10 the Oilers had scored 10 powerplay goals in the first ten games, or 23.3% of the time.

- This year the Oilers have allowed 4 powerplay goals after being shorthanded 43 times, which is a 90.7% kill rate. In 2009-10 Edmonton allowed 9 powerplay goals after being shorthanded just 39 times. That's just 76.9% efficiency.

- 20 goals have been scored by Edmonton this year, while the Oilers scored 37 in ten games back in 2009-10.

- This year the Oilers have allowed 14 goals, and the 2009-10 team allowed 30 in ten games.

- The Oilers have scored on 7.8% of their shots this year, while they scored on 14.9% of their shots in 2009-10.

Clearly these are two very different squads. The team was scoring at an inflated rate in 2009-10, which also bloated their record. They were allowing a lot of shots and goals against but their scoring was keeping their heads above water. When the goal scoring came back down to earth, the team went into the tank.

This year the Oilers are scoring a modest amount of goals, with totals that are certainly sustainable, and may even improve. The goals and shots against will tell the tale for Edmonton this year. They won't always get stellar goaltending, but they have done a better job of limiting the opposition than they did after ten games in 2009-10. The goals against have more than halved from that disastrous season.

One thing to remember is that the Oilers played 3 road games out of the first ten in both 2009-10 and this season, which means they had home ice advantage much more often than not. Last year the Oilers were an awful team even in the early going, and they played 5 road games in the first ten.

Obviously it will take a larger cross section of the season to tell how good this team really is, but it appears to be better than the Oilers who started with 6 wins in ten games and finished 30th. The team is almost certainly not as good as their record - and the standings - indicate right now, but things are improving.

10/28/11 Measuring Stick

By the narrowest of margins, the Oilers scored a 2-1 victory over the Washington Capitals on Thursday night. Back in July in the "Comparing Rebuilds" series, this blog called the Capitals the closest comparison to the Oilers among teams that have built through the draft. Ovechkin's team, then, truly is a measuring stick for the progression of these young Oilers.

Some notes from the game:

The Oilers were outshot 35 to 19 in this game, but the scoring chances were much closer at 13-18 in favor of the Caps. If the Oilers had lost this game nobody would have been greatly disappointed, especially considering that Washington is the best team in the league. The fact that the Oilers were able to keep this thing even reasonably close is a testament to their improvement.

However, it's also a testament to the amount of penalties that Washington took. When Taylor Hall is allowed 7:02 on the powerplay, most of the time he's going to make something happen with that ice. Eberle had 6:54 and Nugent-Hopkins had 6:16 on the powerplay. Corey Potter spent 6:04 on the ice with the man advantage and took advantage with 2 assists. Potter has had a fantastic start, now having collected 6 points in 7 games.

And let's not forget Khabibulin, who continues to roll along with a 0.97 GAA and 0.964 SV%. If it weren't for back-to-back games, Devan Dubnyk would have a hard time getting into the net. Who would have thought that it would be Dubnyk who would have to showcase himself this season?

- Hall, Eberle and RNH bled chances against badly at 5v5, but their effectiveness on the powerplay makes up for it. It's no wonder that Renney has been starting those three in the offensive zone more than 60% of the time. They got hemmed in by the Caps on several occasions, but Hall and Nugent-Hopkins managed some game saving shot blocks near the end.

- Nugent-Hopkins continues to be on a point-per-game pace. One key difference between him and Taylor Hall was that Hall came into the NHL on a line with Shawn Horcoff and Jordan Eberle. Horcoff is a good player, but he's no offensive dynamo; while Eberle too was a rookie. Nugent-Hopkins' linemates are both experienced NHLers who perfectly complement his skill set. Also, Hall had to play behind Dustin Penner on the depth chart, while RNH has been the Oilers' best option at center from the get-go. That's not to take anything away from Nugent-Hopkins' many obvious talents, but he is coming into a better situation than his counterpart Hall did last year.

- It's early, but Taylor Hall is on pace for exactly 30 goals. He's also on pace to rifle 263 shots on goal over 81 games. That total would have been the 21st-highest in the entire NHL last year. He has yet to go a game without registering a shot, and he's had at least 3 in six of the eight games he's appeared in.

- Speaking of shooters, Jordan Eberle has had a shot in every game this year as well, and at least 3 shots in six of the nine games he's played.

- Alex Ovechkin had 7 shots on goal in this game, but Khabibulin was equal to the task. The final one that rang off the crossbar would have changed this game, but the Oilers got the bounce. That's payback for the one that went in for Heatley. The Oilers will still have four chances to beat the Wild this year, but beating Ovechkin & Co. to end their 7-game win streak is much sweeter. Many fans would take that trade in bounces.

Despite the fact that the Oilers have been outshot in their last two games by a wide margin, Edmonton actually out-chanced Vancouver 18-15 on Tuesday and kept the scoring chances close against Washington. Thursday's result could just as easily have gone the other way, but the Oilers probably deserved the win against the Canucks. Fantastic goaltending has helped a great deal, but the Oilers don't look significantly worse than their record. In a seven game series against Washington the Oilers wouldn't stand a chance, which is a measure of how far they still have to go. However, there are signs of marked improvement that - so far - don't seem to be abating.

10/25/11 The Potter Experiment

For the moment, let's all forget about the fate of some other defensemen who wore #44 for the Oilers, and assume that Corey Potter's career is going to follow a kinder, friendlier path. Just who is this Potter fellow anyway?

Quick bio for those who don't know:

- Born in Lansing, Michigan on January 5th 1984, which makes him 27 years old
- Drafted in the 4th round (122nd overall) in 2003 by NYR
- Some notables who were selected after Potter in 2003: Kyle Quincey, Lee Stempniak, Brad Richardson, Bruno Gervais, Joe Pavelski, Kyle Brodziak, Tobias Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien, Matt Moulson, Jaroslav Halak
- Potter is 6'3" and 206 pounds

So what took Potter so long to reach the NHL? There were a number of factors. Tom Renney said Potter simply got caught in a numbers games in New York, but the 2003 draftee didn't turn pro until the 2006-07 season. He played 4 years for Michigan State University before that, picking up 44 points in 150 games.

Interestingly, Potter's totals were modest - to say the least - in his first three years of CCHA hockey with MSU. Over that span he collected just 22 points in 105 games. Then, in his final year there he picked up 4-18-22 in just 45 games (also the highest single season number of games played in his career to that point).

He debuted with the Charlotte Checkers of the ECHL in 2006-07 scoring 6-13-19 in 43 games and earned a 30 game callup to the Hartford Wolfpack of the American Hockey League. While there he bagged 2-8-10. In 2007-08 he played his first full year in Hartford, scoring 5-27-32 in 80 games, as well as a sparkling plus-33 rating. However, he showed a propensity to take penalties and had 102 PIMs that year. His PIMs decreased every season from that time on, until he got them down to 52 PIMs last year with Wilkes-Barre.

Over Potter's AHL career, he's collected 28 goals and 111 assists for 139 points in 321 games (0.43 p/g), and posted a  plus-88 rating. He was never a minus player in any of his AHL seasons.

So far Potter is averaging 3:36 of powerplay time per game with the Oilers, which is more than any other player on the team, and just 1:21 of penalty kill time, which is good for 11th. He's 8th on the Oilers in even strength ice time per game at 14:58, which is 6th among the 8 defensemen Edmonton has used. Only Andy Sutton and Theo Peckham have averaged less ice time at even strength. All told, he's averaging nearly 20 minutes per game, but a decent chunk of that has been relatively cushy powerplay time.

He's played well enough to deserve to be in the Oilers' lineup, but his presence also helps to shift everyone else back into their proper positions. Ladislav Smid, for example, averaged 45 seconds of PP time per game last year, and needless to say that's not Laddy's area of expertise. Sometimes there simply was no other option. Smid also played 2:40 of PK time per game in 2010-11. This year Smid has played only 3 seconds on the powerplay per game, while he's averaged 4:32 on the PK. That's thanks in part to the fact that the Oilers can deploy Potter for some of the softer minutes, and that Potter has been very capable in how he's used that time.

Five games is a very small sample size, but Potter may be a player who is ready to step in full time. He's not so much a late bloomer as he is a seasoned veteran - he simply didn't learn the ropes in the NHL like other players often do. It should be noted that that method of developing D-men has served Nashville well, and has contributed to their seemingly never-ending pipeline of quality blueliners. After another thirty games or so we'll know if Potter is legit.

10/23/11 By The Numbers: The Oilers So Far

Now that we are seven games into the season, we are starting to get a picture of what this Oilers team is going to look like. Here is a brief look at some of the underlying stats from this year and how they compare to last season's 30th place squad.

- The Oilers have fired 226 shots on goal this year, which is up from 192 at this time last year. That may seem a little strange, since the Oilers are playing a more defensive style of hockey this season, but they are actually getting more pucks to the net.

- They have allowed 186 shots against this season, which is down from 233 after the first seven games in 2010-11.

- All told, the Oilers currently have a +40 differential of shots for and against, while at this time last year they had a differential of -41.

- Right now the Oilers are scoring on around 5% of their total shots on goal. Last year at this time, they were scoring on 10% of their shots. If the Oilers had scored on ten percent of their shots this season, they would already have about 23 goals, rather than the 12 that they do have.

- In 2010-11 the Oilers had allowed 25 goals after seven games, which is an abysmal 3.57 Goals Against per Game. This year, the team has allowed 10 goals in seven games, which is good for 1.43 Goals Against per Game. Expect that number to climb a little over the course of the year, but reducing the GA/G by 2.14 is an excellent sign early on.

- At this time last year, Taylor Hall had just one assist in his first seven games. This year he's got a goal and 4 assists in 6 games.

- Jordan Eberle had 5 points by the seven game mark last year, including 3 goals. He's got 5 points this year too, but their all assists.

- Ales Hemsky played in Edmonton's first 7 games last season, scoring 3 goals and 5 points. This year he's got into only 2 contests and picked up one assist so far. Oilers record without him in the lineup this season: 2-2-1.

- Magnus Paajarvi had 2-2-4 in the first seven games of last season, as well as 21 shots on goal. This year he's got no points, and has directed 16 shots on goal.

- Linus Omark didn't get into the NHL lineup until December 10th of 2010, but in his first seven appearances he managed to put up 5 points. Assigning him to OKC seemed to light a fire under him last year, but it isn't an option this season, because if he's not playing in the NHL his contract allows him to go to Europe if he chooses to. He'd still be Oilers property, but he couldn't return this season.

- Shawn Horcoff already had 3 goals and 5 points by this time last year, but he's had to settle for 4 assists so far this year. Last year he had ten shots in 7 games, while this year he has only 8. The captain has been good this year, but he'll need to shoot a lot more than that if he expects to get off the schneid.

- Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle have each got 20 shots on goal in 13 games between them, but only one goal has come out of those shots. The fact that they are putting lots of rubber on net means that both will break out eventually.

So far the the Oilers are doing a better job than last year at generating offense, and limiting that of the opposition. The fact that their scorers haven't been scoring is more a measure of luck than effort, because the big guns (Hall, Eberle, RNH) have all been doing good things offensively, and these numbers reflect that. Even Paajarvi has not been as bad as it looks at first glance. So far his shot totals are down from last season, but his 16 SOG is tied for 4th most on the team. Linus Omark's 7 shots puts him way down the list, and unless he starts to pick up his play he'll have a hard time getting back into the lineup. As yet, his totals are the only obvious disappointment.

When the Oilers start getting bounces, this team will be dangerous.

10/20/11 Quick Thoughts from Game 6

Well, that was a heartbreaker. Not only did the Oilers let a divisional opponent claw their way back and win a game, they did it for the second time in three days. Oh well, at least Dany Heatley didn't score the tying goal. What's that you say? Ah, crap.

Jordan Eberle had a strong game, despite the fact that he was unable to convert any of his chances. That makes him 0 for 19 shots on the season so far, but he's getting a load of quality looks. Remember last season when Hall couldn't find the back of the net in his first 7 games? It seemed like a long stretch at the time. By the time he got injured and was on pace for 28 goals, no one was thinking about those first 7 games. When Eberle starts scoring, expect them to come in bunches.

- By this time last year, the Oilers were 2-4-0, with 21 goals against. So far this year the Oilers have allowed just ten goals, which is a dramatic improvement. Unfortunately, it's only resulted in a slightly better record, because the team isn't scoring. After six games in 2010-11 the Oilers had scored 15 times, while this year they've managed to score just 10 times. Yes, this defensive style isn't the most exciting to watch, but it's keeping the team in games much more effectively than what we saw last year. The Oilers have lost all of their games this year by one goal or in the shootout, and they should probably have won two of those games. In Game Six last year the Oilers were blown out 6-1 by San Jose, and they had lost each of their three previous games by 2 goals.

- Anton Lander made a great case for remaining in the NHL after this game, but it isn't likely to matter. Lander will more than likely be demoted to the AHL before Saturday to make room for Sam Gagner, but he looks like he's starting to get the NHL figured out. Lander is a determined player, so expect him to light up the American League in an effort to earn a callup.

- The Oilers have yet to drop below .500 this season, and hopefully the return of Gagner against the Rangers will extend that streak. So far the pattern has been W-L-L-W-L-L, so a win is all but guaranteed! ... That's how these things work, right?

10/19/11 Where Are They Now? The Picks from the Penner Offer Sheet

Pictured above is Kirill Petrov, who was one of the players selected with picks that would have belonged to Edmonton, were it not for the signing of Dustin Penner to an unmatched offer sheet in 2007. The Oilers surrendered three picks for Penner - a first, second and third rounder in 2008. How are the resulting players doing, you ask?

Petrov was selected by the Islanders in the 3rd round, after Anaheim traded the Oilers' compensatory pick to them. The Russian had 4-6-10 in 6 games at the 2010 World Junior Championships, which was tops on the team, and added a plus-7 rating. Despite this, his stock had been dropping like a stone until this season. He wasn't getting a lot of opportunity to play for the powerhouse Ak Bars Kazan of the KHL, and found himself demoted to that team's affiliate for most of last season. He made good use of his time there, however, scoring 8-11-19 in 47 games. As a result of his demotion, he did not appear in the Islanders' list of top ten prospects in the 2011 THN Future Watch.

This year Petrov has started strong, scoring 7-3-10 in the first 15 games; this time with Kazan. The KHL is by no means on par with the NHL, but so far Petrov is showing that he can be an effective scorer in Russia's highest league.

Justin Schutlz

Justin Schultz was selected by the Ducks with the Oilers' second round pick, and has been a fast riser in that organization. He finished last season with 18-29-47 in just 41 games for the University of Wisconsin after posting 6-16-22 as a freshman. Schultz is not a large defenseman at 6'1" and 185 pounds, but he has the offensive tools to make up for it. He's a powerplay whiz, who has started this season with 5 assists in 4 games for the Badgers. Schultz was ranked as Anaheim's third-best prospect in the 2011 Future Watch, and the 59th-best overall prospect outside the NHL.

Tyler Myers

The Oilers' first round pick in 2008 - which was the 12th overall pick - was eventually used by Buffalo to select defenseman Tyler Myers. Myers' story speaks for itself at this point. The 6-foot-8, 227 pound giant has become the cornerstone of Buffalo's defense, amassing 21-65-86 in 167 NHL games. He won the Calder as Rookie of the Year in 2010, and on September 15th of this year Myers was re-signed to a $38.5 million deal spanning 7 years. He has the tools to round into one of the league's best defenders, if he's not among them already.

***

The jury is still out on who ultimately won the Penner offer sheet, however. The Oilers ended up with the player who went one selection after Myers in that draft, Colten Teubert, once they traded Penner to LA. Edmonton also received a first round pick in the Penner trade - which became Oscar Klefbom - as well as a third round pick in this year's draft.

On the other hand, the Oilers' rebuild would be greatly accelerated at this stage if it had a player like Myers in the fold, along with another high-end defensive prospect close to a pro debut. Of course, there's no guarantee that the Oilers would have taken any of the players that were selected with their picks, but the point is that those players were available.

The Oilers got 155 points over 4 seasons out of Penner, and they also ended up with the two 1st round picks and a 3rd round pick in exchange for 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2008. On the surface it appears that the Oilers won, but much will depend on how Teubert, Klefbom and the as-yet unused 3rd round choice pan out. Right now, all three of those assets couldn't get you Tyler Myers alone, which means that the Oilers are likely to have lost in the end.

10/17/11 Glimpses

Are we seeing a glimpse into the future of the Edmonton Oilers? The Oilers came out and played an almost perfect game on Monday night, which is something that hasn't happened in Oil Country since... Well, since... Hmm...

The photo of Ryan Smyth above came from the last time the Oilers were in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The blast from the past is injecting some life into this team, and he's teaching the kids all the right habits along the way. Here are some other notes from the game:

- Jason Gregor made a great call when he predicted that Nugent-Hopkins would improve his faceoff stats in Game 4. Gregor thought RNH would win 5 of 11 draws, while in actuality the youngster won 5 of 12. That's a large improvement over his 2 for 15 showing on opening night, just 3 games ago. Before the Draft, people said that there was nothing that Nugent-Hopkins couldn't do once he put his mind to it, and he's made strides in proving those people right when it comes to his only real weakness in faceoffs. He's now a modest - but improved - 24% overall.

- The last time the Oilers limited an opposing team to 12 shots on goal was way back on March 1st of 2006 in a baffling 4-2 loss to St. Louis. The Oilers have now outshot the opposition in 3 of the 4 games to start the season.

- In 2009-10 the Oilers started the season 2-1-1, which lead many to believe that the team was playoff bound. They ended up finishing 30th and selecting Taylor Hall. Some key differences between this team and that team? Most important are the resulting 1st overall picks that came from those 30th place finishes, but here is some raw data:

In those first 4 games of 2009-10, the Oilers outshot the opposing teams just once; in a 4-3 loss to Calgary. They mustered 105 total shots on goal over those four games, and allowed 118. So far this season the Oilers have 112 shots on goal and have allowed 107.

The Oilers have been shorthanded 20 times and allowed 3 PP goals against (PK of 85%). In the first four games of 2009-10 the Oilers were shorthanded 15 times and allowed 4 PP goals against (PK of 73.3%).

The point here is that the underlying flaws in the team were present even while it was winning back in 2009-10. The Oilers started that year 6-3-1 despite only outshooting the opposition once in that span. So far this year the underlying stats are more favorable. Of course there's no guarantee that the trend will continue, but getting Gagner and Whitney will almost certainly make the Oilers better.

- Horcoff and Belanger are both North of 60% in the faceoff circle. Having Belanger on board means that Horcoff doesn't have to take all of the difficult draws anymore, which can only help him. So far he's at 62.6%. Belanger has been a massive addition for the penalty kill, and Steve Tambellini gets a gold star for picking him up. The former Coyote spent 4:03 on the PK in Game 4; more than any other Oilers player. Nashville's powerplay went 0 for 5 on the night, and the last three opportunities didn't even result in a shot on the Oilers' goal.

- Ryan Suter played 28:17 in this game and was strong for almost all of it. He took two penalties, but despite playing nearly half the game he ended up Even on the night. Sound like someone the Oilers could use? Nashville has the look of a team that isn't going anywhere this season, and if they don't make the playoffs or exit in the first round, Suter might jump ship via Unrestricted Free Agency. This will be the year that UFAs start looking at Edmonton as a realistic option, but Suter might price the Oilers out of the market for him. If he wants Shea Weber money - a $4 million bump from his current stipend, up to $7.5 million - the Oilers would be wise to let him sign elsewhere. All these kids are already going to need raises in a few short years.

- As great as this win was, it's important to remember that it's only Nashville. They can't score at the best of times, and Martin Erat and Mike Fisher were both out with injury. The real test is tomorrow. Not because Calgary is any good, but because it'll be a hard fought affair and the Oilers will be a little tired. If we see an effort that even approaches what we saw tonight, it may signal the start of something special.