a·cu·men [ak-yuh-muhn] noun: keen insight; shrewdness

Welcome to Oil Acumen. All Oilers, all the time... Occasionally other stuff.

Sunday, 28 December 2014

12/28/14 It's All Wrong


What is Craig MacTavish doing? Either give Todd Nelson the reigns, or don't. This two-headed monster is now just bizarre. It's not translating into wins, as if that really matters, and one presumes that it's keeping MacT from the big-picture type work that the team desperately needs. Is it going to take a win to get the GM out from behind the bench? Why? Why does that matter?

If it's a win that MacTavish is trying to squeeze out of this group, then he's badly exposing how unqualified he is as a general manager. Why? Because if winning matters, a smart hockey person wouldn't construct or deploy the lineup this way.

Brad Hunt, for one glaring example, is not an NHL player. No amount of stubborn force-feeding of minutes (another 19 to go along with a minus-3 against Calgary on HNIC) is going to change that. Simple. Obvious to anyone.

So is it about tanking, then? If that's the case, why not just hand the team over to Nelson and get to scouting the World Juniors? Lowetide pointed out at his blog that if the team doesn't trust the scouts they'd better have the GM watching.

No matter which direction the team is actually attempting to go, they're currently going about it the wrong way. It's funny, really, how wrongly this organization conducts itself without seeing it.

In other news:

Who knew how deeply the lack of center depth was going to cut? Just ask Nail Yakupov. The guy is averaging twelve and a half minutes of ice time at even strength, most often with Draisaitl and Arcobello. Is it any wonder that he isn't scoring?

Ever since MacTavish and Eakins took over the message to this kid has been that he can't be trusted. Ah, yes. If Nail Yakupov was going to be good at anything in the NHL, it was being defensively sound. That's just simply not the player they drafted. That doesn't make him a bad player, it makes the organization bad for not recognizing that he's a scoring winger who needs two quality linemates to free him up to do his best work.

I know everyone says "but he's a first overall pick! He should be making the players around him better!", but guess what? That's not the player the Oilers drafted. He's a scoring winger - that's it, that's all - so use him like one. There's no shame in it.

- For those sick of the negativity, I really do wish there was some good news to write about, but there just isn't. The way the team is conducting itself is now totally indefensible. The Oilers are on pace for their worst season ever and nothing is being done differently except for one of the most unusual coaching changes ever. What was the point of changing the coach if you're going to use the team in more-or-less the same way?

Friday, 26 December 2014

12/26/14 Odds & Ends: Draisaitl, Trade Talk, Eakins, Goaltending


A few thoughts that have been rattling around in my head.

Let's start with Draisaitl. The main argument for keeping him in the NHL was that he had nothing to gain from being sent back to the WHL. It's an argument that Terry Jones and others made when the season started. But even if Draisaitl had nothing to gain, both he and the Oilers had plenty to lose. If the NHL proved to be too much for the young German, as it has, his confidence could suffer greatly. As we've seen with Yakupov, that can be a far-reaching problem. The team, too, lost a valuable year of contractual control over the player as well as what could have been an inexpensive year of tangible production if Draisaitl started his ELC next year.

- I've been thinking about the Oilers' improved possession numbers, even though they can't win. Is it possible that the really bad goaltending is contributing? Only Carolina has spent more time trailing at even strength than the Oilers, and Edmonton is at 47.4% Corsi when not behind in games. 674 of their 1500 Corsi For events at even strength have come while trailing (44.9% of the total). Maybe the awful state of the goaltending is causing Score Effects to make the Oilers look better than they are?

- The Oilers can't make a trade right now because when you're drowning the other GMs would love to throw you an anvil. But that's why the Oilers need to start winning, not tanking for draft position. As long as the team is desperate, they'll be in a terrible spot when trying to negotiate. Almost without fail, the Oilers need trade help more than the team they're in talks with. As long as that continues, they'll have to spend more assets than other teams - maybe so much so that it doesn't make sense to make the trade at all. It's a grim situation. So when a player like Kyle Chipchura comes available for free, the Oilers literally can't afford to pass. Any assets that make the team better today lessens their needs in future trades, and makes them less desperate to find help.

- My previous conviction that Dallas Eakins should be fired was based on the notion that he was in control of how much ice time his players got, as well as who played and who didn't. I'll be curious to see how the player usage changes when MacTavish leaves the bench. So far, Brad Hunt is still in the NHL, Schultz is getting ice time and Yakupov isn't, and Perron isn't getting a chance on the top line. We'll see how much poor play will be tolerated before players get benched or a seat in the press box. If it was really MacTavish who dictated the player usage, then Eakins could be another rookie who the Oilers organization managed to ruin.

- Hope you all had a great Christmas! My wife makes enough food for two armies, so I found some time to write this in between plates of leftovers. Enjoy the WJC everyone, and all the best in the New Year!

Monday, 22 December 2014

12/22/14 The Edmonton Oilers Are An Embarrassment


And it's not even because they lose so much.

It's because they continuously do dumb, almost incomprehensible things. Anton Lander got sixteen minutes and thirty-seven seconds to impress the men running this pathetic organization. He had six shots on goal, which was a fifth of all the shots the Oilers managed. He had four hits. He started in the offensive zone once, but pretty much broke even in the possession battle on a night that the Oilers got crushed in Corsi.

Lander certainly didn't play a perfect game, but he did almost everything that he could. And he got demoted again. Why? Apparently so that a German teenager can get playing time in the NHL.

There are plenty of Oilers scouts who are going to lose their jobs soon because the team doesn't have enough depth from the draft. Maybe that has something to do with the terrible way that the team develops players? Maybe they should stop treating useful draftees like lumps of coal?

I don't see how the Oilers can blame scouting for their woes when the team drafted Jarrett Stoll, Matt Greene, Kyle Brodziak, Andrew Cogliano, Devan Dubnyk, Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner - all of whom are still playing in the NHL. Former draftees Lander and Jeff Petry will probably be added to that sorry list soon.

Who cares if the Oilers ever win again? It's impossible to cheer for a team this stupid. This rotten organization is an embarrassment and deserves everything it gets.

Friday, 19 December 2014

12/19/14 Another Reason To Remove Lowe


Oilers fans seem to blame Kevin Lowe for everything from the Ryan Smyth trade to global warming (he hasn't publicly declared that he's not the cause of global warming, so who knows). Hell, fans spent almost $6,000 to take out a full page ad in the Sun pleading for Lowe to be fired.

But other than the numerous blunders and a seemingly unending leash, there's another reason to remove Lowe from the Oilers equation.

Because we fans are never going to get inside the real inner workings of the organization, the only way to judge who is in charge is by the additions and subtractions in management. The Oilers have changed coaches, trainers, scouts, general managers and assistant general managers and yet the team continues to make strange decisions.

The way the team develops young players has not changed despite Tambellini's firing. The half-measures in the off season are the same. Trading assets for futures is still going on. But is that culture and organizational philosophy Kevin Lowe's doing? Or is it Katz?

There's a strong belief that Katz was pulling the strings at the 2012 draft, when he overrode the opinion of his scouts. So how far does that influence go? The only way to know for sure would be to gut management - and Lowe in particular - and see if things change.

If we see sweeping changes to the front office in the off season and business carries on as usual, we'll know that there's a deeper problem in the organization.

And its name is Daryl Katz.

Sunday, 14 December 2014