Oilers fans have been a bit spoiled this year when it comes to the rookie crop. With the likes of Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, each of whom had stellar years, it's easy to believe that Magnus Paajarvi's rookie season was below average. This is due in part to the perception by some that he could be the most NHL ready of the Big 3 because of his having played with men in the Swedish Elite League. That has not turned out to be the case. On the whole no one seems to be suggesting that Paajarvi's season was a failure, but he's starting to be seen as a player who will be lauded for his strong two-way play and not his offensive output. To be sure, Paajarvi is a solid player at both ends of the ice, despite his mediocre minus-13 rating. But does that mean that the offense isn't there for him?
On a team that lacks players like Hall and Eberle, Paajarvi would be the star rookie. As such, he would certainly be relied upon more for offense and his ice time would have been increased. On average, Paajarvi played 3 minutes per game less than Taylor Hall and 2 minutes less than Eberle.
Paajarvi fired 180 shots on goal, which was the third-highest total on the team. Granted, Hall and Eberle would have had 229 and 209 shots in the same number of games played as Paajarvi, but Paajarvi was also playing fewer minutes per game, and sometimes with linemates that were not as skilled.
15 goals is not a bad total for a rookie season, especially when one considers that his shooting percentage was just 8.3%. If he works on his shot, gets better linemates, more ice time and a little puck luck, he shouldn't have much problem getting his percentage into Hall and Eberle's 11% range. That would easily make him a 20 goal scorer in the future. In fact, there's a chance that he could surpass that number.
Here is a list of nine years of rookie point totals close to Paajarvi's, starting in 2009-10:
2009-10:
James van Riemsdyk PHI L 78 15 20 35 -1
Peter Regin OTT C 75 13 16 29 10
Artem Anisimov NYR C 82 12 16 28 -2
Tyler Bozak TOR C 37 8 19 27 -5
Evander Kane ATL L 66 14 12 26 2
2008-09:
Andrew Ebbett ANA C 48 8 24 32 8
Nikolai Kulemin TOR L 73 15 16 31 -8
Fabian Brunnstrom DAL L 55 17 12 29 -8
John Mitchell TOR C 76 12 17 29 -16
Mikkel Boedker PHX L 78 11 17 28 -6
Claude Giroux PHI R 42 9 18 27
2007-08:
Martin Hanzal PHX C 72 8 27 35 -7
Nigel Dawes NYR L 61 14 15 29 11
David Perron STL L 62 13 14 27 16
Sergei Kostitsyn MTL L 52 9 18 27 9
Milan Lucic BOS L 77 8 19 27 -2
2006-07:
Alexander Radulov NSH R 64 18 19 37 19
Ryane Clowe SJS L 58 16 18 34
Guillaume Latendresse MTL L 80 16 13 29 -20
Phil Kessel BOS R 70 11 18 29 -12
Joe Pavelski SJS C 46 14 14 28 4
Drew Stafford BUF R 41 13 14 27 5
Jiri Hudler DET C 76 15 10 25 16
David Backes STL R 49 10 13 23 6
2005-06:
Ryan Getzlaf ANA C 57 14 25 39 6
Milan Michalek SJS L 81 17 18 35 1
Rene Bourque CHI L 77 16 18 34 3
Mike Richards PHI C 79 11 23 34 6
Michel Ouellet PIT R 50 16 16 32 -13
Zach Parise NJD L 81 14 18 32 -1
2003-04:
Patrice Bergeron BOS C 71 16 23 39 5
Joffrey Lupul ANA R 75 13 21 34 -6
Nikolay Zherdev CBJ R 57 13 21 34 -11
Eric Staal CAR C 81 11 20 31 -6
Matthew Lombardi CGY C 79 16 13 29 4
2002-03:
Rick Nash CBJ R 74 17 22 39 -27
Ales Kotalik BUF R 68 21 14 35 -2
Niko Kapanen DAL C 82 5 29 34 25
Alex Frolov LAK L 79 14 17 31 12
Stanislav Chistov ANA L 79 12 18 30 4
Ales Hemsky EDM R 59 6 24 30 5
2001-02:
Pavel Datsyuk DET C 70 11 24 35 4
Martin Erat NSH R 80 9 24 33 -11
Radim Vrbata COL R 52 18 12 30 7
2000-01:
Marian Gaborik MIN R 71 18 18 36 -6
Ruslan Fedotenko PHI L 74 16 20 36 8
Steve Reinprecht LAK, COL C 80 15 21 36 10
Daniel Sedin VAN L 75 20 14 34 -3
Karel Rachunek OTT D 71 3 30 33 17
David Vyborny CBJ R 79 13 19 32 -9
The bolded players played a similar number of games to Paajarvi as rookies and also ended with similar point totals before becoming very good NHLers. Some of these players are now elite offensive talents, and yet they had rookie seasons close to that of Magnus Paajarvi. No one is suggesting that Paajarvi is going to turn into Eric Staal or Zach Parise, but the point of these numbers is to show that seasons like Paajarvi's do not mean that that player will not end up being an offensive threat. On the other hand, there are just as many, if not more players who aren't bolded, meaning that these players either ended up being only decent or not playing in the NHL at all, or that they weren't close to Paajarvi's totals.
Magnus Paajarvi clearly has the tools to be effective in the NHL. The fact that he understands a two-way game is a major point of strength for him and will help to keep him in the league for a long time. However, making the transition from Europe is not as easy as some may think, especially for a young man who is only 19 years old. The fact that his offensive output is not what some expected can be at least partially chalked up to the fact that he is making a major jump. Not only do Hall and Eberle have the advantage when it comes to knowing the North American style of play and ice surface size, but they also have a leg up in regards to the culture, language, and proximity to their friends and families. It's certainly no cooincidence that Paajarvi's play began to improve with the addition of fellow Swede Linus Omark, and the effect that the mind can have on an athlete is well known. As he gets accustomed to North America, he should be more able to focus on hockey.
Paajarvi has shown a remarkable level of maturity in being able to come to Canada on his own, and considering all the things working against him, his rookie season should be celebrated for its quality. If he can continue to work hard and improve his game, there's no reason that he cannot be a dangerous offensive threat as well as a complete player.
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