11/13/11 Who's Going To Make It?

The Edmonton Oilers have played 17 games this season and find themselves in playoff position. Here is a look at last season's standings after 17 games from all the teams in the West, and who ended up in an out of the playoffs.

The actual standings at the end of last year were as follows:

1) Vancouver
2) San Jose
3) Detroit
4) Anaheim
5) Nashville
6) Phoenix
7) Los Angeles
8) Chicago
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9) Dallas
10) Calgary
11) St. Louis
12) Minnesota
13) Columbus
14) Colorado
15) Edmonton

However, after each team had played 17 games last year the standings would have looked something like this:

1) Detroit 12-3-2 -- 26 Points*
2) Los Angeles 12-5-0 -- 24 Points*
3) Vancouver 10-4-3 -- 23 Points*
4) Columbus 11-6-0 -- 22 Points
6) San Jose 9-5-3 -- 21 Points*
7) St. Louis 9-5-3 -- 21 Points
7) Dallas 10-7-0 -- 20 Points
8) Minnesota 9-6-2 -- 20 Points
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9) Anaheim 9-7-1 -- 19 Points*
10) Colorado 9-7-1 -- 19 Points
11) Nashville 8-6-3 -- 19 Points*
12) Phoenix 7-5-5 -- 19 Points*
13) Chicago 8-8-1 -- 17 Points*
14) Calgary 7-10-0 -- 14 Points
15) Edmonton 4-10-3 -- 11 Points


What can we learn from this? The teams with an asterisk beside them made the playoffs. That means that only half the teams that were in playoff position after they had all played 17 games actually made the playoffs. Of the teams that were out of playoff position after 17 games, none made the playoffs if they were more than 3 points out. No team that was below .500 made the playoffs.

Columbus dropped the farthest, having gone 11-6-0 to start the season and earning 22 points (64.7 points percentage), but winning just 23-29-13 in their next 65 games (45.4 points percentage) and finishing in 13th place.

St. Louis's record was tied with that of San Jose, but the Sharks finished 18 points higher in the standings by year's end. Despite strong starts to the season, the Blues and Jackets were only 2 and 3 points ahead of the 9th place team respectively.

Below is a look at this year's standings so far. Which of these teams are likely to maintain their strong starts, and which teams will fall off?

We can be fairly certain that over the course of the season Los Angeles and Vancouver will make the post-season. That means that at least two teams that are currently in the top 8 have got to come out. If last year's trend continues, and no team that is more than 3 points out of the playoffs at this point makes them at the end, that means Calgary, Anaheim and Columbus are finished. That leaves 12 teams fighting for 8 spots, and we know that Chicago, Vancouver, Detroit, San Jose and Los Angeles are almost certain to make it. Therefore there are 7 teams going after 3 playoff spots.

Which teams will those be? And will the Oilers be among them? Edmonton's 20 points is good for fourth in the West right now, but the team is only 3 points removed from 12th. The good news is that the Oilers have made it much, much easier on themselves to make the playoffs this year than last, but there is still a lot of work to do.

11/12/11 The Numbers Behind A Streak

The Oilers have lost 3 of their last 4 games now, following a whirlwind 6-game winning streak. Let's have a peek at some of the data from those two streaks and see which result is likely to continue. The numbers may surprise you, but they probably won't.

The Win Streak - Oct 22 to Nov 3


17 Goals For (2.8 GF Per Game)
6 Goals Against (1 GA Per Game)
2 Shutouts
144 Shots For (24 SF Per Game)
181 Shots Against (30 SA Per Game)
6 Powerplay Goals For on 27 Opportunities (22.2% PP)
2 Powerplay Goals Against on 21 Opportunities (90% PK)
Oilers goaltenders had a combined Save Percentage of 0.972


The numbers show the extent to which the Oilers got absolutely ridiculous goaltending. 97% of the shots that came to the Edmonton net were stopped over the win streak, and the Oilers were allowing a lot of them. The Oilers were scoring on 11.8% of the shots they took, which isn't an outlandish number. The problem is that they weren't shooting enough to win games if their netminders were only average. Here is a breakdown of who was scoring when the Oilers were winning:

RNH: 6 points, Hall: 5 points, Eberle: 7 points, Smyth: 7 points, Potter: 6 points. Those five players combined for 31 points in 6 games.

Horcoff, Barker, Gagner, Sutton, Petrell, Jones, Plante, Gilbert, Petry, Eager and Lander combined for 18 points.

The Last Four Games - Nov 5 to Nov 11


8 Goals For (2 GF Per Game)
14 Goals Against (3.5 GA Per Game)
0 Shutouts
94 Shots For (23.5 SF Per Game)
117 Shots Against (29.25 SA Per Game)
1 Powerplay Goal on 12 Opportunities (8.3% PP)
3 Powerplay Goals Against on 19 Opportunities (84% PK)
Oilers goaltenders had a combined Save Percentage of 0.880


In the last four games the Oilers have scored on just 8.5% of their shots. They are still averaging the same number of Shots For and Against as they were when they were winning, but now they aren't scoring as much and their opponents have scored more. The reality of the goaltending situation is probably somewhere between the highs we saw during the win streak and what we are seeing now, but the amount of rubber finding each net has been a constant.

Ryan Smyth has had 5 points in the last four games, but the rest of the team has been mostly silent. RNH, Eberle, Hall, Peckham, Belanger, Teubert, Horcoff, Paajarvi, Gilbert, and Hemsky have combined for just 14 points in these last four games.

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It goes without saying that the Oilers' best offensive players have to be scoring if the team is going to have any hope of winning, and over the last four games they haven't been doing that. However, the shot totals and save percentage numbers continue to paint a picture of a team that is outmatched most nights. Over an 82 game schedule, it's likely that these numbers will catch up with the Oilers unless they can learn to turn them around on the fly. There is plenty more to like about this team than any other incarnation since the '06 Stanley Cup Run, but the road ahead could be a bumpy one.

11/09/11 Comparing Two Unlikely Starts

In 2009-10 the Colorado Avalanche were the toast of the NHL during the first segment of the season. After finishing 28th in the league the season before, Colorado managed to put an unlikely run together that ended with a playoff spot in the spring of 2010. Can the Oilers do the same?

That year Colorado was 10-2-2 by the 14-game mark. That's not at all dissimilar to the Oilers' record of 9-3-2. Like the Oilers this year, Colorado's success in 2009-10 hinged on the play of their goaltender. Craig Anderson was responsible for all ten of the team's wins by game number fourteen. Anderson started every one of Colorado's first 14 games that year, facing 477 shots over that span and stopping all but 29 of them. That's a 0.940 SV% to start the season, but Anderson would end the year with a save percentage of 0.917.

Colorado was outshot eleven times in their first 14 games, but managed to boast an 8-2-1 record in games in which they were outshot, obviously owing very much to the play of Anderson. The Oilers have been outshot only 7 times this year, but have a record of 4-2-1 when being outshot.

A healthy Paul Stastny lead the way in scoring for the Av's, registering 20-59-79 in 80 games after just 11-25-36 in 45 games the year before. Chris Stewart emerged as a legitimate scoring threat, posting 28-36-64 in 77 games after a rookie season of 11-8-19 in 53 games the previous year. And, perhaps most important of all, new addition Matt Duchene had 24-31-55 in 81 games.

So far the Oilers have 4 players on pace for 56 or more points: Taylor Hall (on pace for 56), Jordan Eberle (64), Nugent-Hopkins (70) and Ryan Smyth (82). Obviously not all of these players will reach these totals, but a player like Ales Hemsky has a chance to pick up some of the slack if he stays healthy for any length of time.

Colorado went 33-28-7 after their first 14 games, which is merely an average record. Once Anderson cooled off the team was nowhere near as effective, but they still finished 13 games over .500. Ten of those wins came in the first 14 games, and they were instrumental in that team making the playoffs by just 5 points.

The Oilers have had similarly hot goaltending to start the season and they [should] have the offensive firepower to make up for a dropoff from Khabibulin and Dubnyk. Peter Budaj had almost identical numbers to Anderson by the end of 2009-10, and the Oilers should be able to enjoy something similar with their netminders. Like Colorado, the Oilers are banking points early that could make a huge difference in April.

If the Oilers were to go 33-28-7 the rest of the way, they will have amassed 93 points. It wouldn't have been enough for a playoff berth last year, but it certainly would have had them in the conversation. But the fact is that even if Edmonton is .500 for the rest of the season (something like 30-30-8), their 88 points would make for a 26-point improvement over last year. That would be a tremendous leap forward and a make for a wildly successful campaign.

11/06/11 How's Everybody Doing?

Despite a loss on Saturday, we all know how well the Oilers' players have been doing. But what about the players on the farm? And what about the ones that have left or that the team has recently traded away?

Linus Omark: Omark has collected 4 assists in 2 games since being assigned to OKC, and is an Even player. Once again an assignment to Oklahoma City has lit a fire under this player and so far he seems determined to get back to the NHL.

Philippe Cornet: The Oilers' 5th rounder in 2008 was a strong scoring threat in the QMJHL but failed to translate his production to the American Hockey League during his rookie season last year. As a rookie he managed 7-16-23 in 60 games in OKC, but this year he's already got 8-1-9 in 10 games and seems to be figuring it out. If he ends up as a quality AHL player he'll still be a good selection in the 5th round.

Gilbert Brule: The center has put up 4-2-6 in 8 games on the farm and is a minus-3. These numbers would be respectable in the NHL, but Brule will need to do better if he wants to get back there as an Oiler.

Teemu Hartikainen: Four goals and 7 points in the first ten games as well as a plus-2 rating. Hartikainen had 0.64 points per game in the AHL last season and 0.70 points per game so far this season. His numbers are good, but he's going to have some work to do to get to the NHL ahead of Omark. Either that, or he'll have to hope for a load of injuries with the big club.

Curtis Hamilton: In his first pro season, the Oilers' 48th overall pick in 2010 has put up just 2 assists in 7 AHL games and is a plus-1, following an 82 point, 62 game campaign in the WHL last year. Cornet has showed that one cannot panic too much about the play of an AHL rookie, and Hamilton still has the tools to be a solid two-way NHL player if the offense fails to come.

Tyler Pitlick: 1-2-3 in 9 games with OKC so far, along with an Even rating. Another player that seems to need some time to learn the pro game, but who showed plenty of potential.

Martin Marincin: After coming out of the gate on fire last year, Marincin slowed down in the second half but still ended the season with 14-42-56 in 65 games with Prince George of the WHL. This season Marincin has 1-7-8 in 12 games and is a plus-3, while last year he finished as a minus-12. 0.81 points per game in the WHL so far in his career.

Martin Gernat: 6-12-18, plus-8 in 16 games for the Oil Kings. Gernat's start in the WHL has been similar to fellow-Slovak Marincin. It will be interesting to see how his production fares as the season drags on.

Tobias Rieder: The 114th overall pick (4th round) in 2011 has put up 9-9-18 in 15 games for the Kitchener Rangers. Not bad for a later pick.

Tyler Bunz: 12-4-0 record with Medicine Hat this season, along with a 2.36 GAA and 0.928 SV%. Bunz has established himself as one of the top goaltenders in the WHL and is putting up the best numbers of his career.

Frans Tuohimaa: 4-0-1 with Jokerit in the Finnish Elite League. He's sporting a snazzy 2.16 GAA and 0.918 SV%.

Olivier Roy: Former Canadian World Junior starter has gone 0-3-2 with Stockton so far, but with a respectable 2.35 GAA and 0.914 SV%.

David Musil: Never pegged as an offensive-defenseman, Musil has still developed his offensive game in the WHL with the Vancouver Giants. He's posted 1-9-10 in 18 games so far, while last year he had 25 points in 62 games. More importantly, Musil is a plus-7 on a fairly average Giants team, after finishing Even last year.

Ryan Martindale: Martindale has just one assist in his first 7 games with the Stockton Thunder and is a minus-1. Martindale has good offensive tools but the 61st overall pick in 2010 has work to do to get to the big show.

Andrew Cogliano with the Ducks

Andrew Cogliano: 1-1-2 in 13 games so far with Anaheim. He's a plus-4 but so far his offense hasn't shown much more life than it did in Edmonton. Still working to justify his $2.39 million cap hit.

Zack Stortini: Has only played in one game with the Predators this season, registering 7 PIMs. Has one goal in 8 games with the Milwaukee Admirals.

J.F. Jacques: Posted 3-3-6 in six games with Syracuse of the AHL. Lower levels of competition have always been kind to Jacques, who once had 27 points in 29 games with Wilkes-Barre, but 0 points in 37 NHL games that same year.

Riley Nash: Oilers' 21st overall pick in 2007 (later traded to Carolina for the pick that became Marincin) has 1-2-3 in 11 games for the AHL's Charlotte Checkers.

Rob Schremp: 6-7-13 in 20 Swedish Elite League games. Schremp has 20-34-54 in 114 NHL games with the Oilers, Islanders and Thrashers, but couldn't find NHL employment this off season. He's minus-23 in his career, which probably has a lot to do with it.

Liam Reddox: 6-5-11 in 20 SEL games and a minus-7 rating.

Marc-Antoine Pouliot: The man who shall forever be known as Not-Zach-Parise has 1-2-3 in 4 games with Tampa Bay's AHL affiliate in Portland. 53 points in 173 NHL games, while Parise has 349 in 432. If you don't know the history, the Oilers traded the 17th overall pick in 2003 (Parise) to New Jersey for the 22nd overall pick (Pouliot) and the 68th overall pick (J.F. Jacques).

Jeff Deslauriers: 3-2-0 with the Syracuse Crunch of the AHL. JDD has posted a 4.40 GAA and 0.862 SV%, which is making the Oilers look very right to have let him go.

Brad Winchester: 13 penalty minutes in 12 games with the Sharks and one assist to go with it.

Alexei Mikhnov: 5-4-9 in 18 KHL games this year and a plus-3 rating. Mikhnov spent the last 4 seasons with Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, but left in the off season before the tragic plane crash.

Jani Rita: The 30-year old has 10 goals and 14 points in 19 games with Jokerit Helsinki of the Finnish Elite League this year. Rita has played the last six seasons in Helsinki, posting 146 points in 236 games; including a career-high 32 goals and 52 points in 56 games back in 2006-07.

11/04/11 Quick Hits on a Win

Here are some quick facts about Thursday's win against the Kings:

- Last year the Oilers got their 8th win on December 1st against Montreal, which was in the team's 24th game of that season.

- The Oilers improved to 8-8-1 in their 17th game of 2009-10 on November 8th of that season.

- This is Edmonton's best start since the 2001-02 season, when the Oilers came out of the gate 8-4-1. That year they finished in 9th place in the West.

- One more game without a point will match Magnus Paajarvi's career high for futility. Last season he went 13 games without a point from November 7th to the 29th, but finished the year with 34 points. That either means that we shouldn't hit the panic button yet, or that there are some serious questions about Paajarvi's offensive capability.

- Only Shawn Horcoff is averaging more ice time per game among the forwards than 35 year old Ryan Smyth. Smyth's addition to this team cannot possibly be overstated, and hopefully he has a few more good seasons in him.

- Speaking of Shawn Horcoff, it's nice to have a captain that can play a regular shift. Ethan Moreau averaged only 14:24 of ice time per game in his last year in Edmonton, while Horcoff is averaging 21:04 and plays in every situation.

- Thank heavens that the Oilers didn't give up on Ladislav Smid. He wanted to be a top-4 defenseman and he's showing that he is all that and more.

- The Oilers are turning around the frightening trend that was creeping up on them in the games against Washington, Colorado and Vancouver. After being outshot 60 to 113 in those three games, the Oilers were tied in shots with St. Louis at 30 and outshot their opponent on Thursday for the first time since doing it to the Rangers back on October 22nd.

- Edmonton has allowed 20 or fewer shots 3 times in the first 12 games, and 30 or fewer in 6 of the first 12.

11/02/11 Adjusting Success by Save Percentage

It's time to make an honest appraisal of the Oilers' goaltending to this point and discuss how much it really has to do with the team's success. Khabibulin and Dubnyk have been great, but these two puckstoppers can't possibly keep it up. Will the fortunes of the Oilers follow suit?

Let's start with Khabibulin. So far this season he's faced 199 shots and he's stopped all but 8 of them. That's good for a 0.960 Save Percentage, which is an incredible number. However, over the course of his career Khabibulin has averaged a SV% of 0.908, which is a fairly pedestrian number. We can expect his play to drop off at some point if only because of fatigue, and he'll probably end the season closer to his career average when it comes to the percentage of shots he stops. At 0.908, Khabibulin would have allowed around 18 goals in these first seven games, which is more than double what he has actually allowed so far this year.

Even if Khabibulin was stopping shots at his best sustained rate over a full season (0.923 SV% in 63 games in 1998-99), he'd still have allowed somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 goals so far.

What that means is that at best the Oilers have allowed 7 fewer goals than they should have thus far, and at worst they have allowed 10 fewer. That would make for team totals no better than 25 Goals For and 25 Goals Against, and probably closer to 25 GF and 28 GA.

And Dubnyk? Devan Dubnyk has a career SV% of 0.909, but this season he's flying high at 0.938, having allowed 8 goals on 129 shots. If he was closer to his career total SV%, Dubnyk would have allowed 12 goals in his 4 starts. Last year, Dubnyk had a SV% of 0.916 over 35 games, which is a respectable and sustainable total. With that type of efficiency he would have allowed around 11 goals this year. Of course, Dubnyk does have the potential to improve, but a 0.938 SV% over a whole season would put him in the conversation for the Vezina, and it's unlikely that he'll be able to maintain that kind of performance.

With these adjusted numbers taken together, the Oilers probably should have allowed 14 more goals than they have this season, if their netminders were playing at the level of their career average. That means they would still have 25 GF, but they would have allowed 32 GA (including game winning shootout tallies). It's pretty obvious that the Oilers' record would be significantly worse than 7-2-2 with numbers like that. This early win streak has been fun, and it's shown a glimpse into the future, but the future may still be far off unless the team can make more strides in a hurry.

11/02/11 Where Will Omark Land?

Lowetide wrote an interesting article on OilersNation on Tuesday discussing the possible destinations for Linus Omark other than Edmonton. Both he and Jim Matheson mention the Carolina Hurricanes, but there is no way to know what that team would be willing to give up. So what would the Oilers want?

This article claims that the Hurricanes would be willing to part with a defenseman to acquire a forward. Before the season began Oilers fans were champing at the bit for an experienced rearguard, but now things have changed. Even with Whitney out the team's defense has been stout as any in the league. Still, there is always room to improve the backend, even if it simply means that the Oilers can bring their home grown defensive talent along more slowly.

Jamie McBain is probably the best target for the Oilers among Hurricanes players. The 23 year old has posted 43 points in 98 career NHL games, and is a minus-4 in that time. McBain is young enough to fit into the long term plan in Edmonton and he brings an offensive element to the blueline that was not overly abundant before Corey Potter started setting the world on fire. McBain is good insurance against a dropoff or injury from Potter, and would add some offensive depth to the defense. He is also a right-handed shot.

Further, the Hurricanes would be able to replace McBain immediately with Justin Faulk, who is also an offensive-minded defenseman. Faulk has collected 1-4-5 in 6 AHL games so far this season. In the long term, Carolina has Ryan Murphy in the fold, who amassed 26-53-79 in 63 OHL games last year before going 12th overall in the 2011 Draft.

If, during his return trip to the AHL, Linus Omark can put up numbers that are anywhere close to the 14-17-31 he posted in 28 games with OKC last year, he will once again be a hot commodity. He could be valuable enough to be used to acquire something decent, and with Hemsky and Hartikainen in the picture he'll almost certainly have to be dealt at some point.