07/29/11 53.5 Rebuilding Conclusions

We've looked at five rebuilt NHL teams now, and each one is unique. They are varyingly similiar and dissimilar to what the Oilers are doing, and they have also had varying degrees of success. In the final part of this series, it's time to look at what conclusions can be drawn from these five teams, and what those conclusions may mean for Edmonton.

Overall success in relation to draft position:

Pittsburgh: Probably the most successful team; has appeared in two Stanley Cup Finals, winning once; every chance that they will return in the next few years. 5 lottery picks: 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd

Chicago: Second most successful; one Conference Final, one Championship; had to blow up team because of the cap but could return one day. 3 lottery picks*, 1st, 3rd, 3rd

Washington: Two Semi-Final appearances, perennial contender. 3 lottery picks: 1st, 4th, 5th

Los Angeles: No playoff rounds won, but a solid core in place that could see them contend for a long time. 3 lottery picks: 4th, 2nd, 5th

Phoenix: No playoff rounds won, questionable core of young players and disintigrating veteran leadership. 2 lottery picks: 3rd, 5th

The relationship between top-5 selections and success in the NHL seems self evident. Naturally there are plenty of other factors that can be the difference between success and failure, but a base of picks in the top 5 is a great place to start. The interesting thing is not only how the number of lottery picks effects a team, but also where those picks are. If we take the average draft position of each of these teams when they are in the top five, it breaks down like this:

Pittsburgh: 2.2 overall
Chicago: 2.3 overall
Washington: 3.3 overall
Los Angeles: 3.7 overall
Phoenix: 4 overall

That said, this does not mean that the Oilers are going to be better than Pittsburgh because they drafted first overall both times they were in lottery range, and therefore have an average position of 1 overall. The fairest way to judge the Oilers at this point might be to include Sam Gagner, who falls just outside the top five as a 6th overall selection. In that case the Oilers would have an average position of 2.7.

* Chicago picked Cam Barker 3rd overall in 2004 but neither he nor the players he was traded for had any impact on Chicago's eventual championship. Time will tell how Nick Leddy helps the Hawks going forward.

The "culture of losing" idea is overblown.

It may seem at times like losing begets losing and that if the Oilers aren't careful, they'll never know how to win. All of these other teams have shown to some degree that this simply isn't the case. A winning attitude must come from within the players themselves and not from being in an environment where winning is all that goes on. If anything, losing breeds a hatred for it in players that are driven to win. Since when has having everything go your way been the best way to grow as a person or professional?

Time spent out of the playoffs:

Pittsburgh: Finished 29th in 2005-06 with Crosby, Fluery and Whitney all in the lineup.
Washington: Finished 27th in 2005-06 and 2006-07 with Ovechkin on the team.
Chicago: Missed the playoffs in the first three years of Byfuglien, Keith and Seabrook's careers, coming in 28th, 26th, and 20th in the NHL. Kane, Toews and Hjalmarsson missed as rookies.
Los Angeles: Dustin Brown played 5 years before making the playoffs, Kopitar played 3, Bernier and Doughty played one. Each was present for Kings' 26th place finish in 2008-09.
Phoenix: Yandle played parts of two seasons before the Coyotes made it, and so did Turris, but this team is obviously much further behind the 8 ball than the others.

Obviously winning isn't a bad thing, but to suggest that losing will ruin prospects is taking it a little too far.

Breakdown of players selected in top five:

All told, these five teams made sixteen picks inside the top five. Of those picks, ten were forwards, five were defensemen and one was a goalie. 7 of the 10 forwards were centers.

5 of the 7 centers have panned out so far, while Schenn and Turris have work to do to join that list. Schenn looks like a player, so that leaves only Turris to figure it out.

The Oilers and their fans are hoping that Cam Barker doesn't become the first bust of the 5 defensemen. So far, Doughty, Whitney and Alzner have worked out; while the jury is still out on Hickey and Barker.

Only Pittsburgh selected more than one center, and only they have a Stanley Cup. Take from that what you will.

The Oilers are most similar to...

Washington. At least so far.

The Oilers don't quite have the caliber of talent or the number of high draft picks to be considered the next Pittsburgh, but the quality of the Oilers' picks is far superior to that of Phoenix. Edmonton would love it if they had selected a future Norris Trophy winner outside of the first round, but as yet there is no Duncan Keith on this team. And the Los Angeles Kings have simply traded for too much of their roster to be called the most similar to the Oilers. That, and they also have Doughty which is something the Oilers simply lack.

Like Edmonton, the Capitals drafted their first line left winger in Ovechkin and their number one center in Backstrom. If the Oilers were to have another lottery pick next year, it would almost certainly be used on a defenseman - which is similar to what Washington did with Alzner.

The Oilers drafted Dubnyk, who is potentially their future starting goaltender and they also have Tyler Bunz coming. This is similar to Washington's Neuvirth and Holtby.

On defense, the Oilers will hope that Ryan Whitney continues to be an offensive force for the team, but he'll be hard pressed to match Mike Green's production over the last several years. Otherwise, both teams have drafted some good defensemen, but no Doughty or Keith. Right now the Capitals have the edge in terms of the quality of D they have selected at the draft, but the Oilers' defensive prospects still need time to catch up developmentally.

***

The Oilers may be most similar to the Caps, but as we have seen, each rebuild is unique. Washington's progress and whether or not they ever win a Stanley Cup has nothing to do with the Oilers. Therefore, Oilers fans shouldn't put too much stock in Washington's future when deciding how their own team will be.

What these comparisons do show is how rebuilt teams are constructed. The comparisons confirm what we already know in that the Oilers are following the same path that other rebuilt squads have taken before them. Not only that, but the Oilers have recently pulled closer to some of the stronger rebuilt teams in the league by selecting first overall twice in a row. Based on the data (and accounting for a potential top-5 pick next year), it appears that the Oilers will end up as a better team than Phoenix and as good or better than LA, Washington and Chicago - but only because Chicago was forced to blow up a lot of their core and have been scrambling to replace it.

If that does end up being the case, the Oilers will be in a very good position for a very long time. Either way, the fans have a lot to look forward to.

07/28/11 53.4 Comparing Rebuilds: Phoenix and Edmonton

Kyle Turris

In part five of the series, we'll look at the supposedly rebuilt Phoenix Coyotes. It's been a long, hard road for the team from the desert, but the worst may still be yet to come.

When one thinks of the weaker teams in the NHL - the ones that are mediocre on the ice and abysmal financially - the Phoenix Coyotes are one of the first teams that come to mind. It wasn't always so. It's so long ago now that it may be difficult for some to remember, but the Coyotes made the playoffs the first four years they were in Phoenix, and five out of their first six after relocating from Winnipeg. Unfortunately, that playoff season in 2001-02 was the last time the Coyotes would make the dance for seven long years including the lockout.

Compared to the Coyotes, the Oilers are in a brilliant spot. Try telling fans in Arizona that their hockey team is going to finish out of the playoffs for a long, but undisclosed period of time - preferably as far down the league standings as possible - and in the end it'll all work out. Oh, and by the way: pack the house every single night, why dontcha?

It wasn't going to happen.

Just like most rebuilds, the one in Phoenix occurred out of necessity, but there was always the underlying need for the team to win in order to attract fans. Because of that, the franchise has had a total of 2 lottery picks in its history, and none higher than 3rd overall.


Blake Wheeler

 That third overall pick was the young man at the top of the page. The other lottery pick was Blake Wheeler, who was selected 5th overall in 2004. Wheeler played out his college hockey at the University of Minnesota and then refused to sign with the team that drafted him. Instead, Wheeler signed with the Boston Bruins and has put up mediocre totals for a 5th overall pick, at 57-70-127 in 244 games.

Perhaps the best way to understand why Phoenix has continued to flounder is to look at their drafts since 2002-03.

2003: 8 picks; none ever played an NHL game
2004: Wheeler 5th overall but never played for Phoenix, 3 other mediocre NHLers; best pick was Daniel Winnik
2005: Easily their best draft; Martin Hanzal 17th and Keith Yandle 105th
2006: Peter Mueller 8th, Chris Summers 29th might be a player and Benn Ferriero 196th. After a series of trades Mueller turned into Michal Roszival who will be 33 this season and in the last year of his contract
2007: Kyle Turris 3rd; has yet to justify his high draft position
2008: LW Mikkel Boedker 8th; 45 points in 126 games so far but still plenty of time to get better. LW Viktor Tikhonov 28th; 16 points in 61 games.
2009: Oliver Ekman-Larsson 6th; could be a very good defenseman one day but it may be a little while yet

In 2010 the team made the playoffs, which is when we stop counting the draft as being part of a rebuilding situation. All told, Phoenix never had the kind of high draft picks to dig themselves out of the hole they are in, and the ones they did have were wasted. Unless Turris can start to show something offensively, he is on the cusp of being a bust. Fellow 2007 draftee Sam Gagner had 131 points after 223 games and has 173 points right now. After next season, Turris will have played around 213 NHL games and is on pace for 75 career points.

If Turris doesn't take a step forward, it could present a large problem for the 'Yotes. Their 1st and 3rd leading scorers, Shane Doan and Ray Whitney, will be 35 and 39 this year respectively. When those two are gone this team will be virtually devoid of scoring, and the goaltending tandem of Mike Smith and Labarbera/McElhinney is frightening.

In other words, as the Oilers continue to improve and their rebuild takes shape, the Coyotes will be a punching bag for the Copper and Blue. Whether they are the Phoenix Coyotes or the Coyotes of Parts Unknown, their rebuild is far from finished if it is to be done right.

The Coyotes are a good way for Oilers fans to be reminded of the consequences of never being truly awful. Though it is painful to suck, and to finish 30th in back-to-back years, the worst possible outcome would be to continue to pick in the 6-10 range in perpetuity. Nothing sucks worse than sucking forever. Not even finishing last for two years.

07/27/11 53.3 Comparing Rebuilds: Los Angeles and Edmonton

Anze Kopitar

In part four of Comparing Rebuilds we will look at the Los Angeles Kings and their long road back to respectability.

The Los Angeles Kings are a peculiar team. Of all the rebuilds we've looked at so far, the Kings are the most unique in their assembly. The spring of 2003 saw the first time that LA would miss the playoffs in a stretch that lasted until 2010. Including the lockout, that's seven long years out of the post season. Sounds pretty standard so far, right? Read on.

In order to understand how the Kings built their team, we'll first have to look at the finished product. After all those years out of the playoffs, 10 of the players on the current roster were drafted by the team. Of those, only Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Bernier, Jonathan Quick and Drew Doughty can truly be considered impact players. And of those, only Doughty was a lottery pick.

In fact, Brown was drafted 13th overall that first year the Kings missed the playoffs in 2003, when the team was a reasonably respectable 18th in the league. Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Quick were drafted during the lockout draft of 2005, when there was no season to determine the order. Those two went 11th overall and 72nd overall respectively. After finishing 20th in 2006, ownership cleaned house; removing the entire coaching staff, GM and assistant GM, CEO and also the vice president. Jonathan Bernier was the first pick of the Lombardi era, taken 11th overall.

Thomas Hickey

Thomas Hickey (4th overall) was the first of three lottery picks that the Kings would have in a row, beginning in 2007. Wayne Simmonds went 61st that year as well. In 2008 the Kings finished 29th and took Drew Doughty and then Teubert 13th. Finally, after finishing 26th in 2009 they picked Brayden Schenn 5th overall.

Hickey still has a chance to make an impact in the NHL, but so far the Kings have gotten along just fine without him. Schenn would have counted as a second lottery pick that made the team, but of course he was traded with Simmonds for Mike Richards before this year's draft.

In the Kings' current top nine forwards, only Brown and Kopitar were drafted by the team (and possibly one more depending who plays third line right wing). The defense is no different, with only Doughty and Martinez as former Kings picks. Aside from the two goaltenders, the other selections outside the first round who made the team are all role players that don't really require a rebuild to obtain.

This is in stark contrast to the Oilers, who look to have drafted every player in their current top nine, despite the fact that Ryan Smyth was re-acquired via trade.

On the other hand, one of the main similarities between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers is that not every year spent out of the playoffs resulted in lottery picks. While teams like Washington and Pittsburgh spent every non-playoff year at the bottom, the Kings and Oilers didn't start off by blowing it up. Luckily, both teams have managed to mine some gems in the mid-late first round in addition to the lottery picks each has had. However, the rebuilds of these two teams has been somewhat slower because of their lack of a load of picks in the 1-5 range.

Counting the lockout, the Kings were out of the playoffs 7 years, and it will be at least 10 before they win a round. The Capitals were out for 4 years including the lockout and it was 6 years before they won a playoff round. Pittsburgh was out of the playoffs for 5 years including the lockout and won a round in the 7th year.

Edmonton has so far been out for 5 years. An optimistic assessment would see the team spend 6 years out of the playoffs and win a round in their 8th; assuming that they follow the model of other rebuilt squads and lose in the first round of 2012-13.

The Oilers' draft position and effectiveness falls somewhere between the Kings and Pittsburgh/Washington, and Edmonton's progress will probably follow.

The Oilers have had slightly better draft position during their time out of the playoffs than LA had, selecting 6th, 22nd, 10th, 1st and 1st (with another high pick probably on the way) compared with the Kings' 13th, 11th, 11th, 11th, 4th, 2nd and 5th. However, the Oilers still aren't close to Pittsburgh's 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd or Washington's 1st, 4th, 5th with some extremely high quality picks late in the first round of a few drafts.

Now all the Oilers need is to luck into a situation like the one that saw defenseman Jack Johnson get traded to LA. Johnson was drafted 3rd overall by Carolina but wouldn't sign there, so he was traded to Los Angeles for Eric Belanger and Tim Gleason. That type of thing doesn't happen every day, but it certainly would help in Edmonton.

By the time the Oilers are finished their rebuild, the team may have traded away many valuable former draft picks for help on the backend, which will bring the comparison to Los Angeles slightly closer together. The Kings have largely been constructed through trade and free agency, but each trade had to start with a draft pick at one time.

07/25/11 53.2 Comparing Rebuilds: Washington and Edmonton

Alexander Something-or-Other

In part three of Comparing Rebuilds, we will look at the Washington Capitals and how they fell and rose again. Are they a good comparison to the Oilers?

The best thing that ever happened to the Washington Capitals was winning the Draft Lottery in 2004. Although the Caps picked first that year, they actually finished third-last in the league. If the draft order had remained the same, Washington might easily have ended up with Cam Barker. The best that Washington could have done with the third pick was to take Andrew Ladd. Ladd is a good player in his own right, but he's no Alexander Ovechkin.

At the time that it was all happening, it seemed like the Washington Capitals were a lot worse for a lot longer than they actually were. After losing in the 1998 Stanley Cup Final to Detroit, the Caps would see two consecutive years of first round exits. Once Pittsburgh went into financial peril, Washington was able to acquire Jaromir Jagr and signed him to a contract worth $77 million over 7 years. What did they get for their troubles? No playoffs the following year and a first round exit at the hands of Tampa Bay the year after that. Unfortunately, it turns out that at the time "having Jagr" = financial trouble for his team; which is small wonder considering his pricetag. In the end the Caps had to agree to pay $4 million of Jagr's salary annually just to be able to trade him to the New York Rangers.

To shed salary, and acknowledging that their attempt to buy a team had failed, Washington also traded Peter Bondra, Robert Lang and Sergei Gonchar in 2003-04. All of these trades caused the team to go down the tubes, and resulted in the lottery position where the Caps managed to win and jump to first overall. The result was Ovechkin.

Of course, this all sounds eerily reminiscent of when the Oilers traded Ryan Smyth mid-season and then dropped directly into the toilet. Interestingly, if the Oilers had won one less game in 2007 they would have finished 5th last and hit the lottery (Chicago had the luxury instead and took Patrick Kane), just like what happened to Washington. Instead the Oilers beat Calgary in game 82 and finished 6th-last, selecting Sam Gagner at the draft. The Caps had three first round picks in 2004, just like the Oilers in 2007. The difference? Washington's 27th and 29th picks overall in 2004 were Jeff Schultz and Mike Green. The Oilers selected Alex Plante and Riley Nash in 2007. Enough said.

However, you might say the Oilers got their Ovechkin in 2010 with Taylor Hall. There are some similarities. After the lockout the Caps continued to struggle in Ovechkin's rookie season. They finished 27th, but played 42 one-goal games that year. The Oilers finished 30th in Hall's rookie year, and played in 31 one-goal games. Washington selected their future number one center in Nicklas Backstrom after their dissappointing finish, while the Oilers hope that they took their future number one in Nugent-Hopkins.

Things didn't get any better with Ovechkin as a sophomore. Backstrom stayed over in Sweden in 2006-07, just as Nugent-Hopkins may stay in Red Deer. Despite 46 more goals from Ovi, the Capitals finished 27th and took Karl Alzner one pick ahead of Gagner in the 2007 draft. The following year they won their (weak) division and made the playoffs on the back of a 65 goal campaign from Ovechkin, and Backstrom's 55 assists and 69 points as a rookie.

Alexander Semin

 In all, the Washington Capitals spent just three straight seasons out of the playoffs (not including the lockout) and selected 1st overall, 4th overall and 5th overall. There was still a draft in 2005 of course, but it can be discounted since none of the players picked by Washington that year amounted to anything. The reason for the quick turnaround can be attributed to mid-late first round picks as much as to their lottery selections in 2004, 2006 and 2007.

Steve Eminger, Alex Semin and Boyd Gordon went 12th, 13th and 17th in 2002 to the Caps. Eric Fehr went 18th in 2003, and then there was the aforementioned Jeff Schultz 27th and Mike Green 29th in the Ovechkin draft. Varlamov and Neuvirth went 23rd and 34th in 2006, future stud John Carlson went 21st in 2008, which was the same year that Washington took Braden Holtby 93rd overall.

Those later picks make up (or did at one time) the core of the re-vamped Capitals. Ovechkin and Backstrom are certainly two huge pieces that came from their lottery picks, but it's safe to say that most of this team wasn't built through the top of the draft.

The Oilers have done alright later in the draft as well, plucking Eberle, Paajarvi, Omark, Petry, Peckham and Dubnyk well outside of the top 5. Only time will tell how integral those players are to the team's future success, but they will have to be key if the Oilers hope to turn it around like Washington and other former bottom-feeders have done.

So far the Oilers have only had two lottery picks and the team (and the fans) don't want another. The Capitals have shown that it isn't necessary to have a multitude of them to build a contender. On the other hand, a team like Pittsburgh that had 5 lottery selections has already won the Stanley Cup.

If the Oilers fall out of playoff contention this year, there will be a special place among some Oilers fans for the Capitals. If Washington can win it all, it will be a good sign for Edmonton.

07/23/11 56.0 Hall and Hemsky Together > Apart

My, but that hat-trick was sweet. Hemsky assisted on the first two goals, including a beauty give-and-go at the goal mouth. That game was an indication of things to come.

Ironically, the Oilers have been looking for a left winger to fit into the top line ever since Ryan Smyth was traded. Now that he is back, the Oilers have finally got their man - and it isn't Smyth. Dany Heatley, Marian Hossa and Dustin Penner are three wingers that the Oilers have pursued in the interim. While Penner did have one exceptional season in Edmonton, he was never really the answer. In all likelihood, the selection of Magnus Paajarvi was at least partially driven by the need for a left winger that could play opposite Hemsky full time.

With all of this blatant desire on the part of the organization to find a winger that could compliment Hemsky, it should have come as no surprise which player the Oilers selected first overall in 2010. Taylor Hall falling into the Oilers' lap was like a God-send.

Perhaps that is part of the thinking when it comes to how the Oilers have dealt with the Hemsky situation. Now that they clearly have the left winger they wanted, management isn't going to shake things up. If the glimpses of chemistry that Hemsky and Hall have shown continue, it could be a very special tandem indeed.

Of course there's still Jordan Eberle to think about. It's no wonder that Hall and Eberle were placed on a line together for much of the year, considering how dynamic they were together at the World Juniors. During the tournament Oilers fans could only dream of the possibility of having both players, and when it actually happened it was like a dream come true. To put them together in the NHL seemed perfectly natural.

However, Hall and Eberle are both goal scorers, so it doesn't make much sense to keep them together any longer. Trying to force them to stay on the same line because of what they did in one Junior tournament is not the right way to go about things, especially now that they are both in the NHL with players that can better compliment their abilities.

Perhaps one day (maybe next year, maybe not) when Nugent-Hopkins is the set-up center on the top line, it will make sense to have two goal-scoring wingers play with him. For now though, RNH is not as good as Hemsky; if only because of experience. If Eberle was a center it might also make sense to keep Eberle and Hall together. For the time being, it seems best to ease Nugent-Hopkins in with a second line role, where he can feed pucks to another former WHLer in Eberle. On the top line Gagner and Hemsky can hopefully find Hall 30-40 times this season, and it will create a nice and balanced one-two attack.

There's no doubt that as Eberle and Hall improve they will be able to be effective with each other, but as long as the Oilers have one of the league's better set up men in Hemsky, they might as well utilize him with Hall.

Of course this all hinges on the Oilers staying the course and not trading their best player over the last several years. This blog has not exactly shied away from the idea of trading Hemsky, but that window seems to have closed now.

Trading Hemsky for a high pick in the 2011 Draft might have made sense since that player could have been in the Oilers lineup on opening night in 2011-12 and been all but guaranteed to be an Oiler for a good long time. Trading Hemsky for an established, up-and-coming player might also have made sense, but with only one year left on Hemsky's contract that probably won't happen. Hemsky has the chance to move on if he chooses after next year, but Oilers management is obviously banking on that not happening.

Ales Hemsky will be 28 at the start of next season, which means that if the Oilers can manage to sign him to an extension they will still get at least 4-6 years of high end play from him. That fits into the long term plans just fine. As a matter of fact, there wouldn't be any talk of trading Hemsky at all if it weren't for the fact that his contract is about to expire and also the way that players have recently been leaving Edmonton as if it were Old Testamant Egypt.

If for whatever reason the Oilers decide to trade Hemsky, it will be better to do it at this year's trade deadline instead of right now. Right now teams see that Hemsky has one year left on his contract and shy away, but when those same teams are trying to win a Stanley Cup they'll be willing to pay a huge price for a player that only has a few months left on his deal.

But whatever the Oilers get for Hemsky probably won't be as valuable as having him on board, considering that only contending teams with mid-late first round picks will trade for him. The fact that Hemsky hasn't been traded already means that:

a) none of the offers have been good enough to this point
b) the Oilers feel that they have a decent shot to get him re-signed
c) all of the above

The Oilers won't let Hemsky walk for nothing, but let's all get together now and hope that he wants to stay. It would give the team a fantastic mix of scorers and set-up men in their top six, which would be deadly for years to come.

"Hemsky dangles across the blueline, threads the needle over to Hall, who scores!"

Has a nice ring to it.


GO ESKS GO!

07/21/11 55.0 Solutions in Goal: Pekka Rinne

Pekka Rinne

The debate rages on. Is Khabibulin going to bounce back next season, or will he continue to be a sub-par goaltender who ends his career with a fizzle? It turns out that it doesn't really matter. Regardless of the answer to that question, the one near-certainty is that Nikolai Khabibulin won't be with the Oilers for longer than the next two years. That means that a long term solution is needed between the pipes.

There were rumblings that the Oilers were in on the race for free agent goalie Tomas Vokoun this off season before he signed with Washington. If true, it suggests that the organization is not concerned with adding a goaltender through free agency and the implications for Khabibulin. If a third goalie enters the fold, it probably won't be Devan Dubnyk who goes down to Oklahoma City. That leaves old Nik as the odd man out.

Next July 1st Vokoun will be up for grabs again, but he'll also be seeking a long-term deal at age 36. If that sounds painfully familiar, it's because that is the story of Khabibulin as well. Granted, Vokoun has been solid over the past several seasons, but he's still not a long term solution. Nashville's Pekka Rinne is set to become an Unrestricted Free Agent next July as well, assuming that the Predators don't sign him to an extension before then. Rinne is the type of goalie that could be a real answer for the Oilers.

The 28 year old currently carries a cap hit of $3.4 million, and to sign him would probably take a raise of at least one to two million dollars. This past year he was second in the league in save percentage at .930 and third in goals against average with 2.12. Over his career, which spans 177 games, Rinne has posted a .920 SV% and 2.33 GAA. The fact that Rinne will be just 29 at the time of next year's free agent frenzy means that his team will still get a lot of quality mileage out of him.

It's a rare opportunity for the Oilers because Rinne fits perfectly into the age bracket that will allow the team to stay together for a long time. Furthermore, when Nikolai Khabibulin comes off the books, $3.75 million in cap space will open up. If the Oilers signed Rinne to a contract with a cap hit of around $5 million, it would mean spending just $1.25 million more for a tremendous goaltending upgrade and would still leave plenty of flexibility to sign the wunderkids to new deals.

The inevitable question is what the Oilers do with Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk is an RFA after next season, and he will probably want a bump from the $800,000 salary he is bringing in now. The Oilers should still be able to get a deal done without breaking the bank.

There's certainly plenty to like about Dubnyk, but he only has 54 NHL games under his belt at this point. Throwing him into the fire of the starting job might not be the best thing for him, or for the team. Signing Rinne - or any veteran goaltender for that matter - doesn't mean Dubnyk isn't part of the team's future plans; it simply cements the position going forward. The Vancouver Canucks and Boston Bruins both went into the playoffs with number one and one-A goalies. While the one-A's didn't much effect the outcome, it was a nice luxury to have during the regular season and also the playoffs where anything can happen.

***

After next season the Oilers should have the clout around the league to be able to land the bigger fish in free agency. It will be impossible to ignore all the up-and-coming talent on the team. If the Oilers offer competitive money, term and a chance to win, then there's no reason that a player like Rinne wouldn't take an offer seriously.

It may be a hard pill for Darryl Katz to pay Khabibulin $3.75 million to play for the AHL team in the last year of his deal, but the owner has shown a willingness to open the check book to help the team win. His going along with how Tambellini handled Sheldon Souray shows that Katz understands the big picture regardless of the cost, especially considering that it ended in a buyout anyway. If the Oilers have a chance to make their goaltending rock solid for the next 4-6 years by signing Rinne and Dubnyk, it seems unlikely that Katz would be opposed to burying Khabibulin on the farm. One thing is for sure: the fans wouldn't mind in the least; which speaks volumes about the Oilers' situation in goal.

It may be next July that the situation finally gets rectified.

07/21/11 53.1 Comparing Rebuilds: Pittsburgh and Edmonton

Welcome to part two of Comparing Rebuilds. This time we will look at the Pittsburgh Penguins and how their championship team was built.

The Pittsburgh Penguins made the playoffs in the 2000-01 season, and reached the Conference Final where they lost to the New Jersey Devils in five games. However, financial trouble saw the Penguins trade away much of their core and the team dropped in the standings like a stone. The team only spent 5 years out of the playoffs (if you include the lockout) between their Conference Final appearance and their return to the post season in 2006-07.

To put that in perspective, if the Oilers were to make the playoffs next year then the timeline of the two clubs would be about the same. Though there is a fear of creating a culture of losing in Edmonton, the Penguins weren't at the bottom for much less time than Edmonton will be. The turnaround took place because the time the Penguins spent outside the playoffs was not wasted in the middle of the NHL Draft. When the Penguins were down in the standings, they were way down.

Here is a comparison of Edmonton and Pittsburgh's draft positions, starting with the year after each last made the playoffs (first pick only):

Pittsburgh: 5th Overall (Ryan Whitney), 1st Overall (M-A Fleury), 2nd Overall (Evgeni Malkin), 1st Overall (Crosby), 2nd Overall (Jordan Staal)

Edmonton: 6th Overall (Sam Gagner), 22nd Overall (Jordan Eberle), 10th Overall (Magnus Paajarvi), 1st Overall (Taylor Hall), 1st Overall (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)

The Penguins took three centers in those 5 drafts, and all of them were key to the Cup victory. However, Ryan Whitney was ultimately traded for help on the wing. That means that these drafts resulted in four forwards and a goalie for Pittsburgh.

The Oilers took two centers and three wingers. Both teams weighted the value heavily on forwards at the top of the draft. The Oilers are obviously without a Sidney Crosby, but that would be asking for a lot. Four of the players that Pittsburgh drafted in that span helped them to win their third Stanley Cup, and Whitney was traded at the deadline for Chris Kunitz and Eric Tangradi. Kunitz didn't exactly light up the playoffs that year, but he did contribute 14 points on the way to the Cup win.

Both teams had two first overall picks in a five year span, and in a re-draft one has to think that Jordan Eberle would have at least cracked the top ten in 2008. The caliber of talent that Edmonton has collected in their time out of the playoffs is perhaps less impressive than that of Pittsburgh, but that doesn't mean that it isn't a solid core of players.


Kris Letang

 The Penguins drafted 9 of the players on their Stanley Cup winning team (who played at least ten games). They were: Malkin, Crosby, Staal, Kennedy, Letang, Talbot, Orpik, Scuderi and Fleury. Aside from Scuderi, who was drafted in 1998, all of the others were selected between 2000 and 2006. Five of those nine were forwards, three were defensemen and of course Fleury in goal.

Five of the players were free agent signings: Fedotenko, Satan, Cooke, Eaton and Gonchar. All of them were depth players except for Sergei Gonchar. Gonchar signed a deal with the Penguins in August of 2005 - after Crosby, Malkin and Fleury were all drafted. The Oilers' search for a number one defenseman might also be solved in this manner, now that the core forwards have been set into place.

4 of Pittsburgh's players were acquired via trade: Dupuis, Kunitz, Guerin and Gill.

The Oilers are still very much in an evaluation phase in their development, so it's very difficult to project which free agent and trade moves will work out and which ones will not. On the draft side, however, things are a little less hazy.

Sam Gagner has a better points per game average at this point than Jordan Staal, but Staal is a more complete player and is also playing behind two of the best centermen in the NHL. Still, Gagner's development is not complete. He could end up being better than Staal, but still nowhere near Crosby or Malkin.

If Ryan Nugent-Hopkins pans out as planned, he still won't be Sidney Crosby. For him to reach a similar level to Malkin is perhaps the best that the Oilers can hope for. 418 points in 352 games is nothing to sneeze at, after all. Even if RNH doesn't quite reach those heights, he will still be a very successful pick at a point per game clip.

The center position is key for this comparison because the Oilers will probably blow Pittsburgh's depth on the wing out of the water in a year or two. It's hard to argue with a model that has recently been used to win the Stanley Cup, but the Penguins have constantly been trying to add wingers that can play with their highly skilled centermen. To that end, they have traded away some of their depth on defense in Whitney and Goligoski.

While the Oilers don't boast the same formidable power at center, they have used their top picks in a more balanced manner. In fact, the team may have drafted an entire top line in Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle; as well as an entire second line in Paajarvi, Gagner and Hemsky. This approach could pay dividends later on.

Some say that the Penguins were successful because they drafted centers, and while that is true, it's also true that they drafted the best player available. Before Crosby was drafted, the Penguins selected Fleury first overall in 2002, even though center Eric Staal was available and went second. The team felt that Fleury was their man, and they were rewarded. Malkin was the next-best option after Ovechkin went off the board, and he happened to be a center. Crosby was obviously the best player out there in 2005. In Staal's draft year, 4 of the 5 picks after number one were centers, and Pittsburgh simply picked the one they liked best. In each case an argument could have been made for drafting by position - especially once the Penguins had so much depth up the middle - but they continued to take the best player regardless of position or organizational need.

The Oilers also took the best player on the board in a given year. They took Magnus Paajarvi even though they had taken 3 forwards in the first round of the previous 2 drafts. And even with all those picks up front, they took Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to round out their forward ranks with the best options that could be had. It may end up that identifying and taking the best players is more sound than taking the best center.

The last thing to note is one that was touched on earlier: the culture of losing. Pittsburgh's kids weren't ruined by the supposed culture of losing in their stretch out of the playoffs. They finished 26th, 29th, 30th, 29th, with one season in between that wasn't played. That's no less dismal than what the Oilers have gone through and yet the Penguins are a force in the NHL. If anything, the adversity probably helped those players rally and develop into a team. Worrying about a culture of losing is folly, because the same thing is likely to happen to these Oilers players.

How far they take it remains to be seen.