04/30/12 Rookie Report Card: Anton Lander

Coming into the 2011-12 season, Anton Lander was one of the Oilers' top prospects. He still is, despite a season in which he scored just 2-6-8 in 56 games. It's not all Lander's fault that his rookie year didn't exactly go swimmingly, but he didn't manage to overcome unfavorable circumstances. For that reason, he has earned a D+ grade.

Lander's trip to the NHL was at least a year premature. When the Oilers were healthy they had four centers who were perfectly capable of handling the load in Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner, Horcoff and Belanger. There was no need to rush Lander to the big show, but rushed he was and it showed. Given the adjustment to the smaller North American ice and playing against the best competition in the world, we shouldn't be that surprised.

Was it best for Lander's development to play an average of just 10:36 per game in the NHL? It would have been hard to justify more ice time for the young Swede. 8:53 of that time was spent at even strength, but he proved to be in over his head. Lander faced the second-easiest competition of all the Oilers' regular skaters, and started his shifts in the offensive zone 52.2% of the time, but finished with the second-worst relative Corsi of the group and ended his shifts in the offensive zone only 45.1% of the time.

1:36 of Lander's ice time per game was spent penalty killing, and he was ninth on the Oilers with 90:25 in total PK time. That penalty kill time was one of the main justifications for keeping Lander in the NHL, but he had some very poor results. He did manage to score one of the Oilers' four shorthanded goals, but the overall upside just wasn't there for him this season.

After 56 games of spinning his wheels in a limited role Lander was sent down to Oklahoma City, where he should have been assigned in the first place. He posted 1-4-5 in fourteen games, which nearly matched his output from those 56 NHL appearances. In four playoff games so far he's got a goal and an assist.

Lander's spot on the Oilers is by no means secure heading into next season, and he may in fact have been set back by not spending a development year in the AHL. In all likelihood he'll still need some time in OKC, and will find himself as a first call-up in the event of an injury. Again, it's not Lander's fault that he was rushed to the NHL, but he's a strong enough prospect that it isn't time to panic yet. Lander has never been an offensive powerhouse, but his production increased every year that he spent with Timra of the Swedish Elite League. He has other intangibles that will be valuable going forward, which means it will take a little longer for his presence to be felt with the Oilers.

When that happens he could be a very valuable member of the team, but his 2011-12 showed that he isn't there yet.

04/25/12 Rookie Report Card: Nugent-Hopkins

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins proved a lot of people wrong in his first NHL season, showing that he could handle the size, strength and speed of the league. It's impossible to know how many points he might have collected if he had stayed healthy, but the early returns from the first overall pick are strong. It's only that injury and our inability as fans to see how he could handle a full 82 games that can be a knock, which is why I'll give him an A- grade.

The ability to understand the quality of Nugent-Hopkins' season requires that we give it some context. Scoring 52 points as a rookie is great, but fourteen other first year players have accomplished that feat since the lockout. What's impressive is how little time it took.

The Nuge is is ninth in points per game by all rookies since the lockout and eighth in assists per game. His name appears on the points list ahead of players like Ryan Getzlaf, Matt Duchene, John Tavares and Thomas Vanek; and he's right up there with Jonathan Toews. The main difference is that RNH was only 18 years old all season. As I looked at in the Prediction Recaps, Nugent-Hopkins posted the second-highest points per game mark as an 18 year old rookie since the lockout.

Number four on that list is another Oiler: Sam Gagner. Gagner posted 0.62 points per game to Nugent-Hopkins' 0.84, but the differences go beyond that. When comparing their two rookie campaigns we can see the difference between a first and sixth overall pick.

Gagner 2007-08:


- 79 games played, 13G-26A-49PTS
- PP TOI per game: 2:48
- Powerplay points: 6-6-12
- TOI per game: 15:40
- TOI per point: 27:25
- Game winners: 0

Nugent-Hopkins 2011-12:


- 62 games played, 18G-34A-52PTS
- PP TOI per game: 3:00
- Powerplay points: 3-20-23
- TOI per game: 17:36
- TOI per point: 20:59
- Game winners: 2

I threw the game winners in there because it's fun, not because it's an actual measure of the talent of the two players, but the other stats are interesting. Nugent-Hopkins played considerably more at even strength than Gagner at 18, because neither played shorthanded and only 12 seconds is made up in powerplay TOI. But we'll deal with the even strength minutes in a moment; the powerplay points are the interesting part of these stats. With a very similar amount of powerplay ice time per game, Nugent-Hopkins blew Gagner's numbers out of the water. It's even more astounding when you take the games played into account. Gagner played 79 games, and therefore spent 221:38 on the powerplay as a rookie, while in 62 games Nugent-Hopkins collected almost twice as many points in just 186:45.

As for 5x5, both players were sheltered as rookies in zone starts and quality of competition (though RNH was moreso on the former point), but the Nuge had 29 even strength points (0.47/game) to Gagner's 35 (0.44/game). Gagner was minus-21 on a poor team, and RNH was minus-2 on a terrible team.

You might be worried that Nugent-Hopkins could pull a Gagner and never return to the kind of heights that he reached as a rookie, but there's little cause for alarm. Gagner has always been a streaky player who rides waves of unsustainable percentages, as we see even when we look at his rookie scoring by month. During the month of February, Gagner scored 9-9-18 in just 13 games, which padded his final totals enormously. He was a 0.47 p/g player the rest of the year, but in that one month he scored at a clip of 1.38 p/g.

Nugent-Hopkins started strong but his plateau wasn't wildly below the true point total we saw him finish with. He ended with 0.84 points per game, and his worst month (December) saw him collect 0.66 p/g.

But it's not just Gagner who we can compare the Nuge to. What about the other rookies from this 2011-12 crop?

RNH was tied for first in points, fourth in goals, second in assists, 8th in powerplay goals, 7th in shots, and did it all while collecting only 16 PIMs. Those are impressive numbers when you factor in age, games played and the fact that the Oilers were 29th. Fellow rookie Gabriel Landeskog - the player tied for first in points by rookies - not only played 20 more games than Nugent-Hopkins, he also played nearly 460 more minutes. That's more than 40% more total ice time.

What about that sky-high shooting percentage from early in the season? It came down to earth at 13.4%, which is still high but not outlandish. He was on pace for 177 shots, which would make for around 16 goals at league average shooting percentage in 2011-12 (8.94%).

Now he's headed to the Worlds. Nugent-Hopkins is a special player and he showed it all year. It'll be a long wait to see him and the rest of the Oilers' young talent get back at it.

04/24/12 Pre-Season Prediction Recap Part Four

Time to wrap up this prediction recap with the final three. Two of these aren't exactly my clearest glimpses through the time fog...

Q: Which Western Conference team is most likely to be worse than the Oilers?


A: Phoenix. Belanger, Upshall and Stempniak are out; The Human Question Mark Daymond Langkow is in. Doan and Whitney are another year older, Jovanovski is gone and the team has no goaltending whatsoever. They might have a better chance with a cardboard cutout of Ilya Bryzgalov in goal than with Mike Smith and Jason LaBarbera.


Whoa Nelly, this one's a doosey. In my defense: did anyone see this coming?

Lose 59 goals and 130 points (2010-11) from Belanger, Stempniak, Upshall and Turris? Receive 15 goals and 50 points (2011-12) in return from Langkow, Klesla and Rundblad? No biggie.

Ray Whitney is 39 years old, you say? His goal and point totals had declined the previous two seasons? No problem, he'll just score 77 points in all 82 games and finish 13th in the league in that regard.

Speaking of scoring, the Coyotes weren't supposed to have much. Oh no, hang on a minute. Radim Vrbata (whose career-high in goals was 27 back in 2007-08) will outscore Jordan Eberle and pot 35.

Losing Jovanovski hurts though, right? Well as it turns out there's this Ekman-Larsson kid who's doing alright.

And Ilya Bryzgalov? He posted save percentages at or above 0.920 in three of his four seasons with the Coyotes and he has a 0.915 Sv% for his career. Mike Smith, meanwhile, had a career mark of 0.906 in 162 NHL games, and had never had a save percentage at or above 0.920 in a season at any professional level except for five games he spent with the Norfolk Admirals in 2010-11. This year Smith was dramatically better. He posted a 0.930 Sv% and 2.21 GAA in 67 appearances for Phoenix, and won round one of the playoffs almost single-handedly with a 0.950 Sv%.

Frankly, just for this team to have made the playoffs is a shock, but for them to finally win a round is mindblowing. There were plenty of reasons to have doubts about the 'Yotes this season, but they rolled them all up and shoved them sideways up the backsides of their critics (as Brownlee would say). I have a doubt removal procedure booked for later in the summer.

Q: Where do you think the Oilers will finish this season?


A: 13th in the West and 26th overall in the NHL. The Oilers have a shot at being better than Colorado and Phoenix in the West, as well as Winnipeg and Ottawa in the East.


The Oilers finished six points out of 26th this year, and they were actually four Regulation/OT losses behind Toronto. It's not so far off to guess 26th and end in 29th, but again the teams I picked to be bad were dead wrong.

We've covered Phoenix, but the Colorado Avalanche found a way to get up to 20th in the NHL after finishing 29th in 2010-11. Everything was incrementally better for them except for their scoring. They were inside the top eleven of the league in both shots for and against per game, so they controlled the play fairly well even though they didn't always have the finish.

Almost everyone had written off the Senators after last year's debacle of a season, but they got key offensive contributions from Spezza, Alfredsson and Michalek; as well as a potential Norris-worthy season from Erik Karlsson. Nine Senators had at least ten goals, two had 30+ and Karlsson was one shy of giving that team four 20 goal men. Being fourth in the league in goals per game and some improved goaltending can take you a long way.

The Jets flirted with the playoffs for a while but ended up being not that great at 22nd overall. The Hurricanes, Islanders, Leafs and Habs just happened to be worse, and the Jets went 14-6-4 against their lame duck division. Never bet against the enthusiasm of having a team back in Winnipeg...

Q: Will Ales Hemsky be traded this season, or will the Oilers re-sign him?


A: The time for trading Ales Hemsky has more than likely passed. If the Oilers haven't got a package that they liked for him yet, they probably aren't going to get one now that his contract is about to expire. Aside from that, Hemsky is an asset that will need to be replaced on right wing, so Tambellini will probably try to lock him up.


At least we can end on a stronger note. Being a rental hurt Hemsky's value, but his injury history made it ill-advised to trade him for a mediocre package of futures. Oilers management also realized that they would have to replace Hemsky, but of course they didn't yet know that Nail Yakupov was going to drop into their laps. At the end of the day, there's nothing wrong with locking up a known commodity and hoping that he will bounce back after another summer of rest and training. It took long enough, but the Oilers managed to find a deal that worked for both the player and the team.

04/23/12 Pre-Season Prediction Recap Part Three

Another day, another set of questions to look back on. A lot can change from the pre-season onward, but so far these predictions have been fairly close. In the crystal ball today:


Q: Which player with less than 30 NHL games will play the most in 2011-12?


A: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.


Simple, and to the point. Nugent-Hopkins had a terrific 62 game rookie season. His 0.84 points per game is second among all 18 year old rookies since the lockout. Only Sidney Crosby was better at such a young age. The next-closest player, Jeff Skinner, scored 0.77 points per game as an 18 year old, but RNH is well clear of him. It's worth noting also that Crosby's number (1.26 points per game) puts him well clear of absolutely everyone else.

There were some surprises in this category, too. Corey Potter, Lennart Petrell, and Anton Lander all saw significant action this past season despite an extreme lack of experience from all three. In fact, only Potter had any NHL games under his belt at all, but they combined for 178 games with the Oilers in 2011-12. Potter and Lander figure to be part of the future, and Petrell was fine in his role. Colten Teubert got into 24 games as well, which is one shy of this qualifying as his rookie year.

Q: Which of the PP and PK is most likely to improve?


A: The powerplay will improve because all of the Oilers' offensive contributors will be a year more experienced and thus faster in their decision making. Also, the best players that have been added over the last number of years are all offensive-minded. Getting Hemsky and Whitney back healthy will help a lot, and so will Nugent-Hopkins if he makes the team. Penalty killing is a bit more cerebral, since it's play away from the puck. The Oilers don't have enough experience to be very good at it just yet.


This one is interesting, because both special teams improved by leaps and bounds over the 2010-11 season. The PK went from 29th at 77% (74 goals against) to 14th at 82.8% (52 goals against). They allowed 22 less goals while killing penalties season over season, despite the fact that Devan Dubnyk's shorthanded save pecentage (0.862) was 63rd in the league and Khabibulin's 0.889 was 53rd.

The top eight penalty killers were Smid, Horcoff, Schultz/Gilbert, Jones, Belanger, Petry, Smyth and Peckham; which was quite different than the group they used in 2010-11. That year the eight most oft used penalty killers were Gilbert, Cogliano, Smid, Peckham, Fraser, Jones, Reddox and Vandermeer. Not one of the 2010-11 group had a faceoff winning percentage north of 50%, and Cogliano led the team in draws taken but won just 41.6% of them. Smyth, Petry and especially Belanger and Horcoff made a big difference here. I personally never saw it coming that Smyth would have such an impact on the PK because he wasn't used as a penalty killer at all in LA. His veteran savvy helped with some of the decision making that occurred while down a man.

As for the powerplay, it improved from 27th at 14.5% (44 goals for) to 3rd at 20.6% (54 goals for). Like the PK, a six percent increase in powerplay efficiency is huge, and it probably should have contributed to more wins than it did. The top ten players used on the powerplay were Eberle, Horcoff, Smyth, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner, Potter, Hemsky, Whitney and Petry. Tom Gilbert was also a fixture on the PP before being traded. Last year the powerplay men were Foster, Gilbert, Gagner, Hall, Eberle, Hemsky, Whitney, Paajarvi, Omark and Horcoff.

Gone was the wildly ineffective Kurtis Foster, while Paajarvi and Omark lost their spots to powerplay whiz Nugent-Hopkins and wily veteran Ryan Smyth. RNH added 23 powerplay points in just 62 games, which put him in a tie with ten players for 24th in the NHL. More than anything, the emergence of Hall (21 pp points) and Eberle (20 pp points) as well as adding the Nuge put the powerplay over the top.

The powerplay improved by 24 spots in the overall standings, while the penalty kill climbed 15 spots. Both were much better, but the edge goes to the powerplay.

Q: How many games will Yann Danis start?


A: Three; the same as Martin Gerber. Even if one of Dubnyk or Khabibulin suffers a ten-to-fifteen game injury, Danis won't be pushed ahead of the $3.75 million man or the youngster who needs experience.


Actually, Danis didn't start any games this season, but he did play 32 minutes in a relief effort on February 29th. Two goals got past him on 12 shots, good for a 0.833 Sv%. Once the goaltending was back to full strength Danis was sent back to the farm, where he's been the best goalie in the AHL this season.

Q: Will Khabibulin spend any time in OKC this season or next?


A: If Khabibulin spends any time in OKC it will be next year. If the Oilers were to sign a goalie like Vokoun or Rinne after the season then Khabibulin will be headed south for the winter. Otherwise, management will probably ride it out and wait for Bunz.


Obviously, Khabibulin didn't spend any time in Oklahoma City this year even though his numbers in the latter half of the season were bad enough that he probably deserved to. Pekka Rinne is off the market, which is probably a good thing considering that he got a huge extension at $7 million per year. That kind of contract would be ugly in Edmonton. Tomas Vokoun had a decidedly underwhelming season in Washington, posting his worst save percentage since before the lockout. On the other hand, that save percentage (0.917) is right in line with his career number and it's still better than what the Oilers got from either of their two goalies this year. Signing him in the off season would be extremely risky, however, as he is over 35.

One last year of Khabibulin would seem to be in the cards, so he'll need to be in a greatly reduced role. If he somehow stays respectable, maybe he can be traded at the deadline. Either way the odyssey is almost over.

Next time:

Which Western Conference team is most likely to be worse than the Oilers in 2011-12?
Where do you think the Oilers will finish this season?
Will Ales Hemsky be traded, or will the Oilers re-sign him?

04/22/12 Pre-Season Prediction Recap Part Two

We continue our look back at some 2011-12 pre-season predictions with three more questions and answers:
What expectations should fans have of the Oilers this year?
If the team doesn't meet those expectations is anyone's job in jeopardy? And
Which Oilers will score at least forty points? Who will get the most?


I answered the first question this way:

"Fans should expect the Oilers to be a lot like they were in 2010-11. They will be ridiculously good at times, and ridiculously bad as well. There will be nights when the Oilers catch teams off guard when they aren't taken seriously, and there is enough firepower to do some damage to the unprepared. Still, the Oilers will be digging a lot of pucks out of their own net this season unless the goaltending is outstanding. If the team stays healthy they should hover a few games below .500 for much of the year, but that's nowhere near good enough to get a sniff of the playoffs. On the other hand, it's good enough to keep things interesting into February and it should be a season where the fans don't want to claw their own eyes out quite so much of the time."


There were improvements in the goals against department, but the Oilers still finished 23rd with 232 pucks getting by their goalies. That's 28 goals better than 2010-11, when Edmonton was 28th in the NHL in goals allowed. They improved by a modest 16 goals for as a team, but offensive outbursts from Eberle, Hall and Nugent-Hopkins put exclamation points on it in much bolder fashion than in 2010-11, when Eberle led the team with just 43 points.

The Oilers scored five or more goals in a game nine times in 2011-12, which is up slightly from seven occasions in 2010-11. They scored at least four goals 15 times, which is actually down from 19 times in 2010-11. The 9-2 and 8-4 shellackings of Chicago qualify as games in which the Oil did serious damage to a team that didn't take them seriously (and didn't get good goaltending).

The team basically hovered below .500 as expected, but that wasn't enough to keep things interesting into February. Their early winning streak was erased in a December 15th loss to Phoenix, after which they fell to .500 for the first and only time at 14-14-3. After that game the Oilers went 18-26-7, which is a few losses poorer than anticipated but still within tolerance. That mark is a little misleading, however, as the Oilers lost 25 of 33 games from November 10th to January 21st. That's a heck of a lot worse than a few games below .500 and it was a streak of almost half the season.

As to whether or not anyone could lose their job if the Oilers don't live up to expectations, I had this to say:

"For the moment everyone's job is secure. Pretty much everyone who could be fired already has been, and the replacements each deserve some time to make it work. There aren't a lot of expectations wrapped up in this team, and the only way that the Oilers will fall completely flat is if they are overwhelmed by injuries. If that happens it won't really be the fault of anyone who could lose their job. If things go south next season, it will be a different story."


A 29th-place finish is lower than what most were expecting, and it now appears that Tom Renney is in real danger of not being brought back. The coach has been on board for 30th, 30th and 29th-place finishes, so it may be time for a new voice behind the bench; especially if early playoff exits result in other coaching options becoming available.

The Oilers were indeed struck hard by injuries once again, as Taylor Hall, Tom Gilbert and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins missed significant chunks of time. Most damaging, though, was the fact that Ryan Whitney was never 100%. Whitney is unlikely to be a 60+ point player every year as he was on pace for before being injured in 2010-11, but his ability to move the puck, be capable defensively and eat up 25:20 of ice time was sorely missed even when he was in the lineup.

Oilers management is no doubt aware of the need to start winning pronto, and they may see changing the coach as the jab in the ribs the team needs to get going. Despite improvements in virtually every facet of the game, Tom Renney may have needed more wins to keep his job.

Which Oilers players will score at least 40 points? Who will lead the team?


"Hall, Hemsky, Gagner, Paajarvi, Eberle, Smyth and Whitney will crack the 40 point plateau; provided that each stays relatively healthy. Taylor Hall has Hemsky or Eberle on the opposite wing, which means he'll rack up a load of points. It works both ways, which is why it's tempting to pick Hemsky to lead the team in scoring, but at 35 Ryan Smyth is not quite the same linemate that he once  was. Hall will lead the way."


Not quite. Jordan Eberle had a monster of a season and led the team in scoring by a mile. Had Taylor Hall played the same 78 games as Eberle did, he was still on pace to be eight points back of the former Regina Pat. The last Oiler to score 34 or more goals was a 29 year old Ryan Smyth back in 2005-06. Hall, Gagner, Smyth, and Eberle did indeed reach 40 points, and Hemsky was just shy at 36 in 69 games.

Notable here is the lack of production from Paajarvi and the aforementioned Whitney. Before this past season Whitney posted 0.58 points per game over his career, but his hobbled ankle saw him get into just 51 games and score 0.39 points per game with 20. The lack of a true offensive contributor on the back end really hurt the Oilers in 2011-12.

Paajarvi fell off a cliff rather than taking a step forward offensively. The former 10th overall pick finished behind names like Petrell, Eager, Sutton and even Ladislav Smid in goals and points with just 2-6-8 in 41 games. Statistically speaking, there's no evidence to suggest that his rookie season was a fluke, but by eye he seemed to attack the net far less in 2011-12. He'll need to get some of that fearlessness back if he wants to be successful offensively at the NHL level, and his totals in the AHL (7-18-25 in 34) suggest that he might be coming around. As it is, he always has his defensive tools to fall back on and should still be a useful role player if the offense never comes.

Next time:

Which player with less than 30 NHL games will play the most?
Which of the PP and PK is most likely to improve?
How many games will Yann Danis start?
Will Khabibulin spend any time in OKC?

04/21/12 Pre-Season Prediction Recap

Before the 2011-12 NHL season began, a group of bloggers from around the 'Sphere made predictions about how the season would go on The Copper and Blue. As a matter of full disclosure, let's see how I did.

Question One:

"Many fans and of course all of the Edmonton mainstream media have called Steve Tambellini's non-draft off-season a success. Do you agree?"

To paraphrase a long answer:

Yes, because:


- Overpaying a player like Erhoff would have been a bad way to fix the defense, and signing aging free agents would take playing time away from young prospects who need time to develop


- The goaltending situation was left alone so that Devan Dubnyk could get more playing time


- The bottom two lines received a much needed overhaul


- Ryan Smyth was brought back


Most of the panelists agreed that the off season was relatively successful, but also that not enough was done to make the Oilers a playoff team. Last June I argued against signing Cam Barker because he brought less to the table offensively than Tom Gilbert and having been bought out made him risky, but I held out hope that Barker could justify his overly large contract once it was signed. Obviously, he did not.

Christian Erhoff dipped to 32 points in 66 games for Buffalo (0.48 p/g), which is closer to his career total (0.46 p/g) than what he had the year before signing his ten year deal (0.63 p/g). The Sabres paid Erhoff $562,500 per point this season and he didn't put them over the top. The fact that the Oilers didn't go after a big fish like Erhoff or a veteran like Hannan meant that Jeff Petry got into 73 games for the Oilers and developed into a key contributor.

Devan Dubnyk did get into more games this year - 12 more, to be exact (11 starts) - and performed exceedingly well given the circumstances, but I was wrong about keeping Khabibulin. Although his overall save percentage rebounded from 0.890 to 0.910, Khabibulin was atrocious after his early hot streak. After winning 7 of his first 9 games, he went on to win just 5 more all year in 31 starts. Count me among the people who didn't think Khabibulin could continue to be as bad as he was in 2010-11, but he proved that crowd wrong and then some. The workload should have been divided 60-22 in favor of Dubnyk and wasn't, which would have made more sense for a goalie who is 39 years old and had played 743 games before 2011-12.

The removal of Stortini, MacIntyre, Jacques and Fraser were no-brainers, as only one (Fraser) is still in the NHL. Andrew Cogliano's production dipped to 26 points from 35 in 2010-11, and he did it with a new $2.39 million cap hit. His replacement, Eric Belanger, picked up just 16 points for $1.75 million, but at least he was able to win a faceoff. Cogliano was 42% in the dot this year, while Belanger won 55.3% of the time and was a key PK contributor. Nobody could have predicted that Belanger, the personification of consistency, would have such a sub-par season, and he should bounce back next year. Hordichuk did what he does but wasn't very useful, and Eager chipped in 8 goals. Ryan Jones also had a good season, setting a new career high with 33 points and adding 17 goals; earning every bit of his $1.5 million.

Finally, even though Ryan Smyth's return fell flat in the latter half of the season, the Oilers still acquired 19 goals and 46 points in exchange for Fraser and a late pick. That the trade happened can't be credited to Tambellini at all, but the parts that went the other way can. In 67 games for the Kings, Fraser scored just twice and added six assists. That's actually one less goal than he scored in his only year as an Oiler.

***

I became a fan of the full tear-down, scorched earth style rebuild on December 12th of 2009. Ironically, the Oilers had just won a franchise record five straight road games. The trouble was that they left for that road trip in 14th place in the West, and returned from it in 11th place. There was no way that the Oilers were going to continue to win like they just had on the road, so it looked like another year of spinning their wheels. The Oilers went on to lose seven straight and nine of their next ten games, which put them out of the hunt for good.

Since then, I haven't been too perplexed that the team was losing, and so the moves Tambellini made in the 2011 off season made sense from the standpoint that they were going to develop a team from within that would be terrible for a while. That meant playing young players rather than paying veterans, and suffering through some growing pains.

What the Oilers do this off season will be much more heavily scrutinized by everyone, and rightfully so. It's time to start winning in Edmonton.

The recap of predictions will continue throughout the week and we'll revisit the following questions next time:

What expectations should fans have for the Oilers?

If the team doesn't meet those expectations, is anyone's job in jeopardy?

Which Oiler will score at least 40 points? Who will get the most?

Which player will less than 30 NHL games will play the most this season?

Which of the PP and PK is most likely to improve?

How many games will Yann Danis start?

Will Khabibulin spend any time in OKC?

Which Western Conference team is most likely to be worse than the Oilers?

Where will the Oilers finish?

Will Ales Hemsky be traded or signed?

04/19/12 Oilers Prospects Shine In Playoff Action

The Edmonton Oil Kings will make their first appearance in a Conference Final since 1973 on Friday night, and Oilers prospects are helping to lead them there. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Barons are up one to nothing in their first round series against the Houston Aeros after a dominant performance in game one, which was spearheaded by some young Oilers.

Oil Kings

Kristians Pelss: The first pick of the seventh round in 2010 (181st overall) has four goals, two assists and a plus-5 rating in the Oil Kings' eight playoff games before Friday's action; good for fourth on the team in points. One of his goals was a game winner. Pelss had a fine season this year, notching 28 goals and 50 points in 63 games, which is double his goal output from 2010-11.

Travis Ewanyk: The Oilers selected Ewanyk in the third round of the 2011 draft with the pick they received from Calgary in exchange for Steve Staios. He missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, but he has picked up 3-2-5 and a plus-5 in Edmonton's eight games.

Martin Gernat: The 122nd overall pick in the 2011 draft has 2-2-4 and a plus-5 so far in the playoffs. Gernat had a strong rookie season in the WHL, scoring 9-46-55 and a whopping plus-41 in just 60 games. Not too shabby for a defenseman.

The Oil Kings are playing some fantastic hockey and Oilers prospects are right in the middle of it. They'll have a tougher test against Moose Jaw, and a full preview of the series can be found here.

Thunder

Olivier Roy: The young goaltender has a 0.933 Sv% and 2.11 GAA in six playoff games for Stockton. His save percentage is fourth in the ECHL playoffs among goalies who have played at least six games. He had a very strong season for the Thunder, posting a 0.925 Sv% and 2.49 GAA in 40 games.

Barons

Tyler Pitlick: Pitlick came on strong in the latter part of the AHL season. After a slow start, he finished with 7-16-23 in 62 games with a minus-1. He scored the first goal - only goal the Barons needed - in a 5-0 drubbing of the Houston Aeros in game one.

Teemu Hartikainen: The Oilers found a hidden gem in Hartikainen, who is a former 6th round pick from 2008 (163rd overall). He scored the Barons' second goal in game one and finished the evening with five shots on net.

Anton Lander: During the regular season Lander scored a goal and four assists for the Barons in 14 games after being sent down. He scored the fifth goal in game one on a breakaway with four minutes left in the third period, and had five shots on the evening.

Magnus Paajarvi: Going down to the farm helped Paajarvi regain some of his scoring touch. He scored 7-18-25 in 34 games with the Barons during the regular season, and tallied an assist and two shots in game one.

Hunter Tremblay: The Oilers signed Tremblay to a two-way contract last March after an impressive university career. The pending RFA had a goal, an assist, a plus-3 and four shots in game one and is making a case to stay in the organization.

Tanner House: The Oilers gave House a two year contract worth $105,000 per year in the AHL a few days before they signed Tremblay. The former Best Defensive Forward in Hockey East with the University of Maine Black Bears had a goal, three shots and a plus-1 in game one.

You may be noticing a pattern when it comes to the amount of shots the Barons players each had. Plante, Teubert, Vande Velde and Cornet had no points in game one, but combined for ten shots on goal. In fact, the Barons dominated in shots by a margin of 48-14. Game two goes Friday.