Things are going to get better. The kids will grow up and be able to dominate even the toughest NHL competition. Or so we are told. How have some other young stars developed over recent years? Did they look like the young Oilers do now when they started out in the world's best league?
In order to answer that question, I decided to look at five young stars from around the NHL. To be eligible they had to have been a rookie no earlier than the 2007-08 season, so that their advanced stats can be tracked thanks to the fantastic Behind the Net.
Patrick Kane
Kane came into the league right after being selected first overall by Chicago in the 2007 Draft. Here are his 5x5 numbers from that season:
He faced the second easiest competition among regular Hawks forwards
He had the third best Relative Corsi of the regular forwards
He started 55.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone
So, Kane was very sheltered as a rookie with Chicago and had good results. He still managed to average 18:21 of ice time per game, thanks to his average of 3:56 of powerplay ice time, and he also led his team in scoring with 72 points. By the time Chicago was in their Stanley Cup Championship season, his 5x5 numbers looked like this:
He faced the 7th toughest competition of 13 forwards who played more than 30 games
He had the 4th best Relative Corsi of the regular forwards
And he started a whopping 67.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone
The level of competition that Kane faced was middling by the time Chicago was a Cup contender, and his zone starts were still being heavily sheltered 5x5. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that he had career highs in goals (30) and points (88) that season, especially because he led his team in powerplay ice time per game with 3:14.
In the playoffs, the numbers are even more striking.
Kane faced the 6th toughest competition among the forwards
He had the 5th best Relative Corsi of the forward group
And he started an eye-popping 75.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength
Should we be surprised that Kane had 28 points in 22 playoff games on the way to winning the Stanley Cup? The Hawks had five forwards who could face the tougher competition in the playoffs and allow Kane to do his thing. He didn't get significantly better at facing the tough competition, but the quality of his supporting cast was such that he could be free to pick apart weaker opponents.
Jonathan Toews
One cannot think about the Blackhawks and Patrick Kane without also looking at Jonathan Toews. The Hawks' captain was a rookie the same year as Kane, and his progression was fairly similar. In 2007-08 his 5x5 numbers were as follows:
Toews faced the 4th easiest competition among regular forwards
He had the 5th best Relative Corsi of the forward group
And he started 55.7% of his shifts in the offensive zone
Toews was not thrown into the deep end and expected to swim, which is what we might think happened considering what we know about him now. He was still a rookie, and he was given the rookie treatment. He scored 54 points in 64 games, and like Kane his 18:40 of ice time per game was propped up by his average of 3:41 on the powerplay.
In the regular season during 2009-10, Toews' 5x5 numbers looked like this:
He faced the 3rd toughest competition of regular Hawks forwards
His Relative Corsi was 3rd best among the forwards
And he started 58.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone
Toews progressed steadily into a more trusted role with his coaches, and despite his competition he put up 68 points in 76 games. 2:59 of his 20:00 of average ice time was spent on the powerplay, which is the second-most powerplay time behind Kane. Here are his playoff numbers at even strength:
Toews faced the 7th toughest competition among the forwards
He had the 2nd best Relative Corsi of the forwards
And he started 62.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone
Interestingly, Toews faced slightly easier competition than Kane, and he was starting a high percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength. He was less relied upon to be a workhorse in the playoffs than the regular season, and Chicago marched all the way to their Cup win.
Nicklas Backstrom
The Swedish Nicklas Backstrom went 4th overall to Washington in 2006 and debuted as a rookie in 2007-08. Here is what his rookie season looked like:
He faced the 7th toughest competition of the regular forwards
Had the best Relative Corsi of the forwards
And started 60.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone
Backstrom has always been a player that drives possession; even as a rookie. He was being helped out by middling competition and with a high percentage of offensive zone starts at even strength. Also, his point totals are owed partially to the fact that 4:02 of his 18:59 of ice time was spent on the powerplay. Below are his numbers from last year, which was Backstom's fourth in the NHL.
He faced the 7th toughest competition of the forwards
Once again, he had the best Relative Corsi of the forwards
And he started 51% of his shifts in the offensive zone
There isn't much movement here, except that Backstrom's zone starts have gotten tougher. That, and Washington's defensive style that year, may have helped contribute to Backstrom having the lowest point total of his career to date.
Steve Stamkos
Super-sniper Steve Stamkos went first overall to Tampa in 2008 and premiered in the NHL the following season. Here are his 5x5 numbers:
He had the 2nd easiest competition of the regular forwards
The 6th best Relative Corsi of the forwards
And started 58% of his shifts in the offensive zone
Stamkos was very sheltered as a rookie, and managed to post 46 points in 79 games. He was 7th on the Lightning with an average of 2:50 per game on the powerplay, and 16th on the team in total ice time with just 14:56. Last year he had 45-46-91 in 82 games, and his underlying 5x5 numbers looked like this:
The 5th toughest competition of the regular forwards
The 7th best Relative Corsi
And started 49.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone
Stamkos was given much tougher assignments in his third NHL season, and managed to handle himself quite well. Not surprisingly, he was first on the Lightning in poweplay ice time per game with 4:32, and 5th of all their skaters at 20:11 per game in total. This is a player who has learned to dominate very quickly. He seems to be every bit as good as his counting stats would have you believe, and he's earned himself a spot in the very top tier of NHL talent.
John Tavares
John Tavares may be a closer comparison to a player like Taylor Hall than either one of them is to Stamkos, but time will tell. As a rookie:
Tavares faced the 7th toughest competition among the forwards
Had the 8th best Relative Corsi
and started 59.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone
Tavares wasn't sheltered in the extreme, but he managed to have some reasonably good success in his first year with 54 points. He played 18:00 per game, and 4:08 of that on the powerplay. Last year:
He faced the 3rd toughest competition
Had the 5th best Relative Corsi
and started 55.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength
His assignments got a bit tougher, and yet Tavares improved to 67 points in 79 games. 3:30 of his 19:15 of ice time was spent on the powerplay.
That's a lot of data
Darn tootin' it is! So what can we make of it? More importantly, how do players like Hall and Eberle stack up? I'm glad you asked!
Taylor Hall
Last year at even strength:
3rd toughest competition among the regular forwards
The best Relative Corsi of the forwards
52% of his zone starts in the offensive zone
At least partially because of the lack of better options, the Oilers tossed Hall directly into the fray. And he flourished. Relative to the forwards on his team, Hall faced the toughest competition of any of the players I've listed so far. His zone starts weren't pillowy soft, and he was driving the puck in the right direction. Hall was 7th in powerplay ice time on the Oilers with 2:43 per game, and averaged 18:12 in total ice.
This year at even strength:
4th toughest competition among the regular forwards
The best Relative Corsi of the forwards
57.9% offensive zone starts
Hall's team has a bit more of a veteran presence up front with the addition of Ryan Smyth, and that has bumped him back on the competition level. He's up to 3:10 per game on the powerplay, but he's only on the ice for a total of 18:25 per game - an increase of just 13 seconds per game over his rookie year. Most of the forwards listed above had increases - sometimes very large increases - in ice time per game, but Hall has not enjoyed that privilege yet. He's already the best player the Oilers have at driving the play forward, and when he starts to be trusted more by his coaches he could explode offensively just like these others did.
Jordan Eberle
Last year at even strength:
5th toughest competition among the regular forwards
2nd best Relative Corsi among the forwards
49.3% offensive zone starts
Eberle was also given some tough assignments right out of the gate, but he wasn't overwhelmed. He drove the play in the right direction, and led the team in scoring despite 2:32 on the powerplay and 17:40 in total ice time.
This year at even strength:
8th toughest competition among the regular forwards
5th best Relative Corsi
62.7% offensive zone starts
Even though Eberle is leading the Oilers in scoring, and has already potted 30 goals, he's actually averaging less ice time per game than he did as a rookie with just 17:11. He's up to 3:11 per game on the powerplay, however. Eberle has been aided this season by a remarkably high shooting percentage (19.4%), but one can only imagine what he could do with the kind of ice time increase that some of the other players listed had. His competition and zone starts have been easier than last year, but at some point he will have to be given some tougher tasks for the sake of more ice time.
***
There isn't enough data yet to make a call on Nugent-Hopkins (though the preliminary numbers are fairly promising), but what we know about the progression of some other stars around the league compares favorably with what the Oilers have in Hall and Eberle. These two are already the best the Oilers have at controlling the direction of play, and are showing many positive signs.
What happened in Chicago shows us that if the Oilers want to win soon they will need to build up a strong supporting cast of productive veteran players. Remember that when the Oilers were winning at the beginning of the season it was because the vets were taking on the toughest assignments and managing to put up points. This allowed the kids to pick apart the middling and softer competition. If the Oilers don't get veterans who can score consistently, they're better off handing the reigns to the young players and giving them a bigger chunk of the ice time. The coaching staff hasn't done that regularly enough, and the team has slid downhill.
Oilers management thinks of "protecting their young players" in terms of adding enforcers that don't play a regular shift, but the best way to protect them would be to add quality bottom-six forwards that can shut down the opposition's best and allow the kids to pick off the stragglers. Many fans aren't exactly confident in the ability of this management group to bring in the type of players this team really needs, but if it does happen the Oilers have a foundation that is just as good as some very good teams.
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