07/04/12 Wild Make Big (Huge) Splash

Seeing that the Minnesota Wild signed both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, it seemed at first like a practical joke. No offense to the Wild, but if any team had a chance at both, it should have been Crosby's Penguins. Of course, the Wild had to pay.

07/03/12 Odd & Ends: Hordichuk, Suter, Parise, Smyth

We're still waiting on the two biggest UFA names to choose their new homes. On the Tuesday edition of Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer, Steve Tambellini was asked if the Oilers were in pursuit of Ryan Suter.

04/16/12 Can The Predators Afford Suter?

Alexander Radulov wasn't brought back to Nashville to play defense, but his return - among other things - will have some interesting consequences for the Predators. There could be some real difficulty in keeping that stud defense together.

The Predators are near the bottom of the league in payroll at the moment, despite the massive $7.5 million contract they gave Shea Weber. Things appear to be even better for the Preds after this season, as more than $32 million in cap space will be open. The trouble is that only 12 players are under contract for next season, and there are some players on the roster who will need big raises. Assuming that Radulov stays in Nashville, his presence creates a whole new wrinkle.

Part of the reason that Radulov bolted for the KHL was that he was giving the Predators some quality hockey for just $918,578 on his entry level deal - a deal that is still valid until the end of this year. He still has a contract for next season in the KHL that is worth $5 million, so the Predators are going to have to compete with that salary if they expect to keep him in the NHL. For a team lacking any real offensive stars, retaining Radulov is likely to be a priority.

So what's the big deal?

CapGeek projects the Predators to have $32,330,833 in space next season, which includes Pekka Rinne's new $7 million deal. Shea Weber will once again need a new contract, and because he is an RFA his Qualifying Offer can be no less than the $7.5 million he brought in this year. That leaves $24,830,833 in space. Alexander Radulov will need a contract of at least $5 million, which leaves $19,830,833. Ryan Suter actually played more than Shea Weber this season, and it will be a relatively simple matter for his agent to argue that he is just as important to the team as Weber is. Even if his contract comes in at $6 million per season (a $2.5M raise and $1.5M less than Weber's cap hit), that leaves Nashville with $13,830,833 in cap space.

Forwards Andrei and Sergei Kostitsyn, as well as Paul Gaustad, Colin Wilson, and Jordin Tootoo would still be unsigned and they combined for $11,025,000 in cap hits this year. Defensemen Hal Gill, Francis Bouillion and Jack Hillen each need new deals, as does backup goaltender Anders Lindback. Together, the unsigned forwards, defense and goaltender listed here account for $16,150,000, and that number is based on their current salaries and not bringing any potential raises into the picture.

Just to keep it all together the Predators are going to have to do some maneuvering, and even then they'll be a very high spending team. Their internal budget is thought to be in the mid-$50 million range, so for them to get up to $64 million in spending would be a stretch.

It seems unlikely that the Nashville Predators will be able to spend such a huge amount on two defenders next season, especially with youngsters Jon Blum, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm all on inexpensive entry level deals, along with Alexander Radulov requiring a raise. It would therefore be surprising if the Predators don't see some movement on the back end. Every attempt will be made to lock up Shea Weber long term, but if they can't do that it wouldn't be out of the question to move him for a massive return. More likely, though, would be for the Preds to trade Ryan Suter's rights to a team that is interested in signing him. Would the Oilers be such a team?

Regardless of the outcome of these playoffs, it would be very surprising to see both Ryan Suter and Shea Weber back in Nashville next season.

04/04/12 Edmonton: Desirable Free Agent Destination?

For some, the idea that major free agents would ever choose Edmonton is as ridiculous as a Steve Tambellini stand-up comedy hour. Those people might be right. Our city, fair though it may be, is no New York or Los Angeles. What chance do the Oilers have of landing a big fish in the off season? Now that the rebuild is [hopefully] nearing its end, Edmonton does have some advantages.

Suppose for a second that you are a player approaching Unrestricted Free Agency. You're old enough that the chances of you having a family in tow are pretty fair, and you probably want to put down roots somewhere. But that's not all you want. The team you go to is going to have to pay you handsomely for your services, and that team must have a chance to win both in the immediate and long-term future.

In this off season, the Oilers might be able to sell someone on all of those things.

Before I continue, it should be said that all 30 NHL teams will be glad to sign the big fish if they can, so the Oilers face an uphill battle as it is. However, only certain teams will be able to fit all the criteria that a free agent will be looking for in order to make a long commitment. Edmonton's status as a winter hell wonderland works against the Oilers, but now there are some advantages to braving the snow.

Money

For the time being, the Oilers have some cap space. Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins will all be in line for substantial raises in the next two years, but if they aren't wildly overpaid there shouldn't be too much difficulty squeezing them under the cap. After this season almost $1.5 million in cap space will be freed up after Brule's contract and Nilsson's buyout come off the books. Sheldon Souray's buyout cap hit will decrease from $2.4 million to $1.5 million next season before finally disappearing altogether. If Ryan Smyth is brought back his cap hit will certainly fall from its current $6.25 million. Cam Barker and Theo Peckham probably won't be back, which opens up another ~$3.3 million. Additionally, Eberle is the only one of the big three who can expect a raise that's north of $2 million beyond what he's currently taking home (a mere $1,158,333 this year).

More than $21 million in space opens up after this season, with key cogs Dubnyk, Petry, Gagner and Smyth to be signed. The money that doesn't go to Smyth will help to pay for the raises of other three, and dropping Barker and Peckham should cover the rest. So there's a little wiggle room to add a big name on defense, and unlike some teams on internal budgets the Oilers are free to spend to the cap. If a player is good enough it would be worth shoehorning them in, even if the contract is a big one.

Term

The Oilers will be perfectly willing to lay down a lot of years for a big name free agent. Stability is something that every team could potentially offer, however, which begs the question of why a major player would want to roll the dice in Edmonton of all places.

A chance to win?

It seems strange, but in the future the Oilers will be able to offer a chance to win. And it won't just be a chance to win right now; it will be better than that.

The Stanley Cup is probably the most difficult trophy in sports to win - just ask Marian Hossa. Sometimes you need multiple cracks at it to finally get your name engraved. If you've already decided that you are going to commit to one team for a lot of years, that team better give you a chance to win every year. The Oilers are a long way from being a Stanley Cup contender, but they have a lot of rare and quality pieces in place, and should be adding another at this year's draft.

Some players - like Hossa - have been rewarded by going to up-and-coming teams that are not yet any good. Other recent examples include Brian Campbell in Chicago, Sergei Gonchar in Pittsburgh, and Zdeno Chara in Boston.

Naturally, a player like pending UFA Ryan Suter could choose to sign in Detroit where he would eventually replace Hall of Famer Nicklas Lidstom. That does have its pitfalls, however. Pavel Datsyuk is still a great player, but he will turn 34 in July. Zetterberg will be 32 at the start of next season, and Franzen will be 33 in December. They are the core of a very strong team currently, but how will the Red Wings fare as those players age over the life of a long contract for a player like Suter? It's a question that every free agent will have to start asking as they mull over their choice of destination.

There are other teams out there with as much or more cap flexibility as the Oilers, some of which are also up-and-coming teams with loads of potential. The point is not so much that Edmonton has become the best option for NHL free agents, but that it shouldn't be at as much of a disadvantage as it once was. If the rebuild is to have any chance of success, that may be pivotal.

03/17/12 Rake

It's been so long since the Oilers were in the playoffs that it's easy to forget what Chris Pronger meant to the team. If Edmonton is ever going to see playoff hockey again, they're going to need a player on the back end that can fill the role that the Human Rake did night after night.

During the 2005-06 regular season Pronger was a beast. He led the Oilers in ice time by a wide margin, averaging 27:59(!) per game. Here is how his ice time broke down:

Even Strength: 16:08
Powerplay: 6:40
Penalty Kill: 5:11

Yes, Pronger was Mr. Everything for the Oilers that season. He was averaging about a minute or better on both special teams more than any other Oiler, and comfortably led 5x5 as well. Through all that, Pronger managed to put up 12-44-56 in 80 games, with a plus-2 rating. 42 of Pronger's points came on the powerplay, which was tied for first on the team with Ales Hemsky, but Hemsky played 81 games. Pronger was third on the team in blocked shots and takeaways, although the nature of his game (ie: first pass, lots of minutes, lots of touches) meant that he also gave the puck away the second-most. He was 9th among NHL defensemen in scoring, and 5th on the Oilers overall.

In the playoffs he was even more prolific. He was third in playoff scoring for the entire league with 5-16-21 in 24 games and led the Oilers offensively. He also averaged a staggering 30:57 of ice time for the Oilers, which was second in the NHL behind Nicklas Lidstrom, who only played 6 games. In the grinding, attritional battle that is the NHL post season, Pronger was the best.

This year there isn't a player in the league that is averaging the kind of ice time that Pronger did during the regular season for the Oilers. However, the third-highest average of all NHL skaters belongs to pending UFA Ryan Suter, who is on the ice for 26:41 per game. Suter is 22nd in the league in powerplay TOI per game at 3:47, and he's averaging 2:26 on the penalty kill as well. In last year's playoffs, Suter led the league in ice time per game at 28:51, and he was 7th in powerplay time with 4:51.

7-34-41 in 67 games puts him on pace for around 48 points this year, as he has missed three games.

The Nashville Predators have a good team this season, and a deep run into the playoffs will go a long way toward convincing Suter to re-sign in the Music City. But there will be fans around the NHL cheering for whatever team Nashville is up against in the playoffs just so that their team will have a crack at signing this stud defenseman. If they get the chance, the Edmonton Oilers should be one such team.

Despite their impressive collection of young talent, the Oilers are still a long shot to land Suter, and that might be putting it mildly. However, there is little doubt that the team should have interest in this player, based on the range of skills he possesses, and his ability to be a minute-muncher than can handle himself against anyone. Along with Shea Weber, Suter is facing far and away the toughest competition of Predators deensemen, with just 45% offensive zone starts at even strength.

The Oilers may never be able to replace Chris Pronger, but they should make a very strong push to find a way. Since losing the Rake the team has never been the same, and the numbers above illustrate exactly why that is so. Ryan Suter would go a long way toward correcting the problem, but signing him will be a tall order.

02/17/12 Quite Quiet

The good people over at TSN and SportsNet may be disappointed this February 27th, as the NHL trade deadline could prove to be somewhat uneventful. They'll start their coverage before the sun is up and some of you will be watching, but will anything major happen?

For the Oilers' part, it appears that Ales Hemsky is the only name that is actually on the market, and his value is at an all-time low. If he does get traded, it won't be for the stud defenseman that the Oilers so desperately need. If and when a trade like that comes to pass, it will be in the off season. Right now teams won't want to mess around too much with their chemistry as they gear up for a playoff run, which eliminates plenty of options from Edmonton's sights at the moment. Aside from that, the biggest movable asset that the Oilers have at their disposal is this year's first round pick, and teams won't want to make a major play for it until the draft order is set.

Rick Nash and Jeff Carter are the two biggest names that could move at the deadline, but the amount of cap space that will have to be shifted around will severely limit potential deals. In order to take on Nash's $7.8 million hit a team would have to move a significant amount of roster players, and that's unlikely to be desirable for clubs that are already good enough to be inside the playoff picture. The same goes for Carter, who carries a $5.272 million cap hit, but that two-and-a-half million dollar savings over Nash may make it more possible that he'll be in a new home before the end of this month. There will be major changes in Columbus, but they could be later rather than sooner.

If the Leafs weren't in the thick of the playoff race out East, the rumblings around Luke Schenn would probably be even louder than they are now. Having not made the playoffs since before the lockout, even Old Stony himself, Brian Burke, will be feeling the pressure to get his team in. Unless a deal knocks his socks off there probably won't be major changes in Toronto before the end of the year.

Players that would normally be heavily involved in trade talks like Zach Parise and Ryan Suter happen to be on teams that are comfortably inside the playoff picture, which puts the big ol' kibosh on any movement. In addition to that their current clubs will do whatever they can to re-sign them, and probably believe that they still can. Making the playoffs and potentially going on a run would help New Jersey and Nashville convince two of the game's best to stay put.

If the 9th-place Washington Capitals miss the playoffs they may engage in a major shakeup, but Mike Green probably won't be available. There are a lot of factors at work on the Caps this year, but they won seven straight out of the gate with Green in the lineup and as soon as he got hurt they started to lose. With Green playing this season Washington is 9-1-0.

Earlier in the year it seemed to be almost a certainty that there would be major developments in Anaheim, with Bobby Ryan a popular name in the rumor mill. Lubomir Visnovsky is another player that could have been relocated at the deadline, but the Ducks have put serious doubt in the belief that they were dead. How good have they been lately? Well, they've only gone 14-3-3 in their last 20 games and collected 31 of a possible 40 points. They're not quite in the middle of things yet, but they are doing enough to convince just about anyone that the kind of wholesale changes that were being discussed this year are unnecessary.

Teemu Selanne might have been an attractive rental player for some team at the deadline, and so too would Ryan Smyth, but those two seem intent on staying with their current teams. Both have No-Move Clauses in their contracts, which means they control their own fate anyway.

There are some major trades bubbling under the surface in the NHL, but many of them may be too radical to happen right away. Sure, guys like Ryan O'Marra, Nicklas Grossman, Pavel Kubina and even Ales Hemsky have been or may get moved, but the really earth-shattering stuff is more plausible after the Stanley Cup has been won.

But deadline day is fun, so I hope that I'm wrong.