03/13/12 What Ice Time Tells Us

Tom Renney made some pointed comments after the Oilers' 3-2 loss to San Jose on Monday. What he didn't do is indicate exactly what players he wants more from. The one currency that a coach has is ice time, so what does the way it's being distributed tell us about the favor of the coach?

Ice time paints a very clear picture. Let's start with the game against San Jose, after which Renney said that "it doesn't take many [players] with the wrong attitude to make its way through your dressing room." One would assume that the players who were drawing the ire of the coach would not see much playing time.

Ryan Jones has played less than ten minutes in a game just four times this season, and Monday night was one of those occasions. All four of those outings have come within the last 18 games. Jones has been a major problem in terms of secondary scoring with just 2 goals in his last 32 games played.

Also a problem lately is the play of the captain, Shawn Horcoff. The $5.5 million man has been somewhat improved recently, with 2-1-3 in his last six games, but he still has just 5-6-11 in his last 30. Horcoff played 19 or more minutes in 26 of the Oilers' first 30 games, scoring 20 points. In his last 30 he's been on the ice for 19+ minutes 15 times, and only 8 times in his last 20 games played.

And Ryan Smyth? Anointed as an answer for the Oilers' lack of hard work, Smyth has seen his ice time drop with his dwindling production. Like Horcoff, Smyth has 11 points in his last 30 games played, and just 4 of those points are goals. He's played 19+ minutes only eleven times in the last 30 games, after playing 19+ minutes in 21 of his first 30. In the last 15 games, Ryan Smyth has been on the ice for more than 19 total minutes just once, and he had his second-lowest total of the season on Monday at 15:27.

Ales Hemsky had one of his lowest ice time totals on the season on Monday as well at 15:29. He's played better than at the start of the year in some ways, but he still has just 3 assists in his last ten games. Renney obviously isn't happy with Sam Gagner's production either (1-1-2 in his last ten games), and Gagner's ice time has dropped accordingly in the last three contests. Eric Belanger has cracked 12 minutes of ice time just twice in his last ten games.

There are other players who aren't pulling their weight on this team, but the ones I've listed above represent what would reasonably be all of the secondary scoring, and they all appear to be in Renney's doghouse.

On the other side of the coin are the three kids.

Taylor Hall played 19+ minutes twice in his first twenty games, but in his last 30 games he's cracked 19 minutes seventeen times; including 8 times in his last ten games played and four straight.

In Jordan Eberle's first twenty games he saw 19 or more minutes of ice time just once, and his overall usage led me to speculate that Renney wasn't properly utilizing his best player. He still hasn't gotten enough action this season considering the quality of results, but Renney has finally seen fit to give Eberle 19 or more minutes of ice time in five straight games, and 20+ minutes four times in that span.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has played over 20 minutes in back-to-back games. In the eleven games since returning from injury RNH has been on the ice for 20+ minutes four times. In the 37 games before he got hurt, that happened four times as well.

***

The Oilers have too many passengers, and the coach has pointed this out to everyone by means of their ice time. He's also rewarded the forwards that he feels are giving their all. The problem here is two-fold: the forwards that are in the dog house are supposed to be the leaders of this team, and without them producing the Oilers have next to no secondary scoring. The top end of this team is doing just fine, but other members that are supposed to be the core have underperformed in the extreme. Unless things improve significantly in the final games of the season, there will need to be big changes to what is considered the leadership of the Oilers.

The real leaders are all under 22 years old.

03/12/12 Why You Think You Want Calgary to Rebuild

You hear it all the time now. "The Flames need to rebuild." It has gotten so bad that even Oilers fans are spending time talking about it with conviction. But here's a thought:

You, Oilers fan, don't actually want the Flames to rebuild. Not one bit.

Is it longing for a more competitive era between the two rivals that has Oilers fans thinking of ways to fix the Flames? Is it wanting Calgary to have a taste of Edmonton's pain? Temporary insanity, perhaps? Could it be a product having been in exactly the same position that Calgary fans are in? That is, watching a bubble team year after year with impact prospects being few and far between. It could be all of those things (insanity included), but the main reason is something else entirely. Being copied is the purest form of flattery; especially when it's a rival stealing your idea.

The Oilers and their fans have absolutely no guarantees that the course the team has taken will lead to a quality NHL team. There are some positive signs and some truly elite pieces in Edmonton now, but the team is still in 29th place. For the Flames to follow the Oilers down this sometimes horrifying pit of suck would be a signal to Calgary fans - and fans all across the league - that what the Oilers are doing is the right thing.

That's it. That's all. Oilers fans don't actually want the Flames to follow their lead because that might result in some fantastic young talent landing in Cowtown. As much as there are no guarantees that what the Oilers are doing will turn out, it's possibly worse to be guaranteed of mediocrity. That's something that fans in Edmonton are all too familiar with, and it closely resembled the current situation down highway 2.

Of course, some of the best hockey in the world took place between two very good Alberta teams back in the 80's, and it wouldn't hurt the game to have that back. There may be a small voice in all Alberta hockey fans with that exact message. But deep down fans from these two cities can't help but cheer for the worst for each other. Admit it: there was a small part of you that didn't mind losing to the Sharks on Monday night because that would make it tougher for the Flames to make the playoffs. And in turn, Flames fans hope that all of Edmonton's high draft picks will only result in the Atlanta Thrashers of the West and not the West's Pittsburgh Penguins. Like any good rivals, we don't have each other's best interests at heart.

You may think that it's painfully obvious that it's time for the Flames to rebuild (and from where I'm sitting they are fast approaching that time, if they haven't arrived there already), but no Oilers fans really want the Flames to fix themselves by any method. Don't feel too bad though. Flames fans are undoubtedly enjoying the Oilers being at the bottom of the league for a third straight year and out of the playoffs for six. It's in our nature.

03/10/12 Let Eberle Run

At some point, the Oilers are going to have to let their young players run with this thing into the wild blue yonder. That time should be now.

There have been plenty of rumblings around the fan base and in the media that Tom Renney should not be brought back as head coach because of some of the decisions that he's made at the helm. Renney has a solid resume, including a Memorial Cup Championship with Kamloops, as well as the best ever winning percentage as a coach (0.714) in CHL history. Before taking over the Oilers, Renney had a record of 203-170-45 in the NHL. But when it comes to how ice time has been distributed this season, he's left much to be desired.

Case in point: Jordan Eberle.

Eberle is averaging 3.15 points per 60 minutes of even strength ice time, which is the best of all Oilers forwards, and second in the NHL among forwards with 30+ games played. And yet, this season he's been the 7th-most used Oilers forward at even strength with an average of 13:57 per game at 5x5. Six players (Hemsky, Hall, Smyth, Gagner, Horcoff and Nugent-Hopkins) have received more ice time at even strength this year, despite the fact that Eberle has had by far the best results. The fact that Eberle hasn't been a go-to player at even strength has resulted in his being 6th in total ice time per game of Oilers forwards, at 17:11.

For some context, Steve Stamkos is averaging better than four minutes more per game than Eberle at 21:36, and more even strength ice time alone than Eberle has averaged in total. Malkin in Pittsburgh and Claude Giroux in Philadelphia are both averaging 4 minutes more than the Oilers' number 14. Eberle has had the lowest average time on ice of any of the NHL's top 30 scorers (he's 13th).

It makes a person wonder what he could do if he was given more responsibility. With all of the evidence pointing toward utilizing Eberle as much as possible, the current coaching staff has failed to do that.

In fairness, Eberle's ice time has jumped in the last three games up to 21:33, 20:49 and 19:01. He's got two goals and a minus-2 in those games. It's the first time all season that he's played 19 or more minutes in three straight games. It could be that Renney has decided to lean on the young man who has clearly been his best player all season.

The Oilers are in 29th place. There's nothing to lose by playing Eberle more, and if anything it could give him the experience he'll need in taking on tougher competition. It would be nice to see some skill on display for the last 15 games in another losing season.

03/09/12 Forward Progression

Things are going to get better. The kids will grow up and be able to dominate even the toughest NHL competition. Or so we are told. How have some other young stars developed over recent years? Did they look like the young Oilers do now when they started out in the world's best league?

In order to answer that question, I decided to look at five young stars from around the NHL. To be eligible they had to have been a rookie no earlier than the 2007-08 season, so that their advanced stats can be tracked thanks to the fantastic Behind the Net.

Patrick Kane

Kane came into the league right after being selected first overall by Chicago in the 2007 Draft. Here are his 5x5 numbers from that season:

He faced the second easiest competition among regular Hawks forwards

He had the third best Relative Corsi of the regular forwards

He started 55.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone

So, Kane was very sheltered as a rookie with Chicago and had good results. He still managed to average 18:21 of ice time per game, thanks to his average of 3:56 of powerplay ice time, and he also led his team in scoring with 72 points. By the time Chicago was in their Stanley Cup Championship season, his 5x5 numbers looked like this:

He faced the 7th toughest competition of 13 forwards who played more than 30 games

He had the 4th best Relative Corsi of the regular forwards

And he started a whopping 67.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone

The level of competition that Kane faced was middling by the time Chicago was a Cup contender, and his zone starts were still being heavily sheltered 5x5. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that he had career highs in goals (30) and points (88) that season, especially because he led his team in powerplay ice time per game with 3:14.

In the playoffs, the numbers are even more striking.

Kane faced the 6th toughest competition among the forwards

He had the 5th best Relative Corsi of the forward group

And he started an eye-popping 75.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength

Should we be surprised that Kane had 28 points in 22 playoff games on the way to winning the Stanley Cup? The Hawks had five forwards who could face the tougher competition in the playoffs and allow Kane to do his thing. He didn't get significantly better at facing the tough competition, but the quality of his supporting cast was such that he could be free to pick apart weaker opponents.

Jonathan Toews

One cannot think about the Blackhawks and Patrick Kane without also looking at Jonathan Toews. The Hawks' captain was a rookie the same year as Kane, and his progression was fairly similar. In 2007-08 his 5x5 numbers were as follows:

Toews faced the 4th easiest competition among regular forwards

He had the 5th best Relative Corsi of the forward group

And he started 55.7% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Toews was not thrown into the deep end and expected to swim, which is what we might think happened considering what we know about him now. He was still a rookie, and he was given the rookie treatment. He scored 54 points in 64 games, and like Kane his 18:40 of ice time per game was propped up by his average of 3:41 on the powerplay.

In the regular season during 2009-10, Toews' 5x5 numbers looked like this:

He faced the 3rd toughest competition of regular Hawks forwards

His Relative Corsi was 3rd best among the forwards

And he started 58.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Toews progressed steadily into a more trusted role with his coaches, and despite his competition he put up 68 points in 76 games. 2:59 of his 20:00 of average ice time was spent on the powerplay, which is the second-most powerplay time behind Kane. Here are his playoff numbers at even strength:

Toews faced the 7th toughest competition among the forwards

He had the 2nd best Relative Corsi of the forwards

And he started 62.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Interestingly, Toews faced slightly easier competition than Kane, and he was starting a high percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength. He was less relied upon to be a workhorse in the playoffs than the regular season, and Chicago marched all the way to their Cup win.

Nicklas Backstrom

The Swedish Nicklas Backstrom went 4th overall to Washington in 2006 and debuted as a rookie in 2007-08. Here is what his rookie season looked like:

He faced the 7th toughest competition of the regular forwards

Had the best Relative Corsi of the forwards

And started 60.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Backstrom has always been a player that drives possession; even as a rookie. He was being helped out by middling competition and with a high percentage of offensive zone starts at even strength. Also, his point totals are owed partially to the fact that 4:02 of his 18:59 of ice time was spent on the powerplay. Below are his numbers from last year, which was Backstom's fourth in the NHL.

He faced the 7th toughest competition of the forwards

Once again, he had the best Relative Corsi of the forwards

And he started 51% of his shifts in the offensive zone

There isn't much movement here, except that Backstrom's zone starts have gotten tougher. That, and Washington's defensive style that year, may have helped contribute to Backstrom having the lowest point total of his career to date.

Steve Stamkos

Super-sniper Steve Stamkos went first overall to Tampa in 2008 and premiered in the NHL the following season. Here are his 5x5 numbers:

He had the 2nd easiest competition of the regular forwards

The 6th best Relative Corsi of the forwards

And started 58% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Stamkos was very sheltered as a rookie, and managed to post 46 points in 79 games. He was 7th on the Lightning with an average of 2:50 per game on the powerplay, and 16th on the team in total ice time with just 14:56. Last year he had 45-46-91 in 82 games, and his underlying 5x5 numbers looked like this:

The 5th toughest competition of the regular forwards

The 7th best Relative Corsi

And started 49.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Stamkos was given much tougher assignments in his third NHL season, and managed to handle himself quite well. Not surprisingly, he was first on the Lightning in poweplay ice time per game with 4:32, and 5th of all their skaters at 20:11 per game in total. This is a player who has learned to dominate very quickly. He seems to be every bit as good as his counting stats would have you believe, and he's earned himself a spot in the very top tier of NHL talent.

John Tavares

John Tavares may be a closer comparison to a player like Taylor Hall than either one of them is to Stamkos, but time will tell. As a rookie:

Tavares faced the 7th toughest competition among the forwards

Had the 8th best Relative Corsi

and started 59.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Tavares wasn't sheltered in the extreme, but he managed to have some reasonably good success in his first year with 54 points. He played 18:00 per game, and 4:08 of that on the powerplay. Last year:

He faced the 3rd toughest competition

Had the 5th best Relative Corsi

and started 55.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength

His assignments got a bit tougher, and yet Tavares improved to 67 points in 79 games. 3:30 of his 19:15 of ice time was spent on the powerplay.

That's a lot of data

Darn tootin' it is! So what can we make of it? More importantly, how do players like Hall and Eberle stack up? I'm glad you asked!

Taylor Hall

Last year at even strength:

3rd toughest competition among the regular forwards

The best Relative Corsi of the forwards

52% of his zone starts in the offensive zone

At least partially because of the lack of better options, the Oilers tossed Hall directly into the fray. And he flourished. Relative to the forwards on his team, Hall faced the toughest competition of any of the players I've listed so far. His zone starts weren't pillowy soft, and he was driving the puck in the right direction. Hall was 7th in powerplay ice time on the Oilers with 2:43 per game, and averaged 18:12 in total ice.

This year at even strength:

4th toughest competition among the regular forwards

The best Relative Corsi of the forwards

57.9% offensive zone starts

Hall's team has a bit more of a veteran presence up front with the addition of Ryan Smyth, and that has bumped him back on the competition level. He's up to 3:10 per game on the powerplay, but he's only on the ice for a total of 18:25 per game - an increase of just 13 seconds per game over his rookie year. Most of the forwards listed above had increases - sometimes very large increases - in ice time per game, but Hall has not enjoyed that privilege yet. He's already the best player the Oilers have at driving the play forward, and when he starts to be trusted more by his coaches he could explode offensively just like these others did.

Jordan Eberle

Last year at even strength:

5th toughest competition among the regular forwards

2nd best Relative Corsi among the forwards

49.3% offensive zone starts

Eberle was also given some tough assignments right out of the gate, but he wasn't overwhelmed. He drove the play in the right direction, and led the team in scoring despite 2:32 on the powerplay and 17:40 in total ice time.

This year at even strength:

8th toughest competition among the regular forwards

5th best Relative Corsi

62.7% offensive zone starts

Even though Eberle is leading the Oilers in scoring, and has already potted 30 goals, he's actually averaging less ice time per game than he did as a rookie with just 17:11. He's up to 3:11 per game on the powerplay, however. Eberle has been aided this season by a remarkably high shooting percentage (19.4%), but one can only imagine what he could do with the kind of ice time increase that some of the other players listed had. His competition and zone starts have been easier than last year, but at some point he will have to be given some tougher tasks for the sake of more ice time.

***

There isn't enough data yet to make a call on Nugent-Hopkins (though the preliminary numbers are fairly promising), but what we know about the progression of some other stars around the league compares favorably with what the Oilers have in Hall and Eberle. These two are already the best the Oilers have at controlling the direction of play, and are showing many positive signs.

What happened in Chicago shows us that if the Oilers want to win soon they will need to build up a strong supporting cast of productive veteran players. Remember that when the Oilers were winning at the beginning of the season it was because the vets were taking on the toughest assignments and managing to put up points. This allowed the kids to pick apart the middling and softer competition. If the Oilers don't get veterans who can score consistently, they're better off handing the reigns to the young players and giving them a bigger chunk of the ice time. The coaching staff hasn't done that regularly enough, and the team has slid downhill.

Oilers management thinks of "protecting their young players" in terms of adding enforcers that don't play a regular shift, but the best way to protect them would be to add quality bottom-six forwards that can shut down the opposition's best and allow the kids to pick off the stragglers. Many fans aren't exactly confident in the ability of this management group to bring in the type of players this team really needs, but if it does happen the Oilers have a foundation that is just as good as some very good teams. 

03/07/12 Oilers and the NHL Awards

That lovely piece of hardware is the Lady Bing Memorial Trophy, and each year it is awarded to the NHL player that best exhibits both sportsmanship and a high level of play. It's one of two trophies that Edmonton Oilers players have a realistic shot at. How likely are they to win?

The last Oiler to win the Lady Bing was Jari Kurri way back in 1984-85. Since the lockout only two players - Pavel Datsyuk and Martin St. Louis - have won this particular award, so it would take quite an exceptional performance for an Oiler on a bottom team to usurp them. Jordan Eberle is such a player. Eberle is currently sitting in 12th in NHL scoring with 63 points in 62 games, and he's only got 8 penalty minutes all year long. All of the players above him in scoring have more penalty minutes, and Marian Hossa, who is close with 16 PIMs, has just one more point than Eberle in 5 more games played.

The numbers from past winners:

2010-11: Martin St Louis, 4th in league scoring with 99 points; 12 PIMs
2009-10: Martin St. Louis, 6th in league scoring with 94 points; 12 PIMs
2008-09: Pavel Datsyuk, 4th in league scoring with 97 points; 22 PIMs
2007-08: Pavel Datsyuk, 4th in league scoring with 97 points; 20 PIMs
2006-07: Pavel Datsyuk, 17th in league scoring with 87 points; 20 PIMs
2005-06: Pavel Datsyuk, 18th in league scoring with 87 points; 22 PIMs

Over the last four years the winner of the Lady Bing has had to be inside the top 6 in NHL scoring, but Datsyuk's wins in 2006-07 and 2005-06 show that it can be done without being at the very top of the league in points.

Jordan Eberle won't be in the top six in NHL scoring, but he does have all the attributes to at least be a finalist for the Lady Bing. The trouble is that players who are sportsmanlike can also sometimes fly under the radar, and it could take Eberle some time to build up enough of a reputation to win a major NHL award.

Other potential finalists this season: Claude Giroux (3rd in NHL with 77 points; 25 PIMs), Phil Kessel (5th in NHL with 70 points; 20 PIMs), Loui Eriksson (16th in NHL with 61 points; 6 PIMs)

That is the Calder Trophy, which goes to the NHL's rookie of the year. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is still near the head of the line for this one, with 39 points in 46 games. The two players ahead of him are Adam Henrique and Gabriel Landeskog, who each have 43 points. However, Henrique has played 58 games and Landeskog has appeared in 68, which means that they have 0.74 points per game and 0.63 points per game respectively. Nugent-Hopkins is scoring at a 0.85 points per game clip, and he's also more than three years younger than Henrique.

This one doesn't always go to the best point producer among rookies, but there doesn't appear to be a goalie or defenseman who's really in the mix for this award. Nugent-Hopkins compares favorably with some skaters who are past winners of the Calder:

2010-11: Jeff Skinner, 1st in points by a rookie with 63 (0.77 points per game)
2009-10: Tyler Myers, 3rd in points by a rookie with 48 - 1st by a rookie defenseman (0.59 points per game)
2007-08: Patrick Kane, 1st in points by a rookie with 72 (0.88 points per game)

I didn't include 2008-09 because it was won by Steve Mason, and I stopped after 2007-08 because in the years prior to that the rookies of the year were Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Ovechkin. To compare Nugent-Hopkins to them is unfair, especially in the context of deciding who is the top rookie for 2011-12.

Notably, however, is the fact that Nugent-Hopkins wouldn't be at all out of place when it comes to the points per game of past winners. He's also scoring at a rate that would see him finish first in rookie scoring this season. Landeskog is on pace to finish with 52 points, and Henrique should put up another 12 points or so for 55 total. If Nugent-Hopkins keeps scoring at his current pace he'll finish the season with about 56 points in just 66 games.

No Oilers player has ever won the Calder, which means that if Nugent-Hopkins does, it will be a major milestone for the organization. At the end of the day these awards don't mean anything unless the team starts to win, but for Oilers players to be considered means that the team is taking a step in the right direction. It's a moral victory more than anything else, but right now we'll take it.

03/04/12 Rick Nash and the Implications for Edmonton

Even if Rick Nash wanted to come to Edmonton (he doesn't), the Oilers don't need to trade for him. However, if the Nash trade does happen before the NHL Draft, there will be meaning for the Edmonton Oilers in the long term. A trade involving the superstar right winger will set the value of such a player across the NHL.

It has come out into the open that the Oilers want to add at least one "top end" defenseman before next season, and according to Darren Dreger that will most likely come about via trade. It's hard to argue with a man as plugged in as Dreger, so now the question remains: what would the Oilers have to offer for such a player? That's easy. Considering their current position, the Oilers will be picking at the top of the draft, where two elite forwards are available.

Nail Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko are not proven NHL scorers, as Nash is, but they are highly regarded enough to fetch a massive price on the market. When Nash is traded we'll have some idea of how much those two could be worth. Elliotte Friedman reported in his 30 thoughts that the Blue Jackets rejected an enormous offer from the New York Ranger for Nash: Brandon Dubinsky, Tim Erixon, Christian Thomas, J.T. Miller and a first round pick.

A little history:

Tim Erixon is a former first round pick by Calgary, who refused to sign there and was subsequently traded to New York. Christian Thomas is a former second round pick (40th overall) who followed up his 41 goal sophomore season in the OHL with a 54 goal campaign last year. Miller was New York's first round pick in 2011, going 15th overall. Hockey's Future has those three listed as the Rangers' second, third and fourth best prospects behind only Chris Kreider. Them, plus Dubinsky and a first round pick is a huge price.

The Rangers didn't want to tinker too much with their team chemistry, so they didn't add enough proven NHL scoring in this offer, and Scott Howson turned it down. When the season ends there will be 29 teams that didn't win the Stanley Cup, and trading proven NHL players will become more palatable. That's when Nash will be moved, and when the Oilers could also add to their roster. Happily, the Jackets want to add scoring in exchange for Nash, which won't tamper with the defensive market that the Oilers will be dipping into.

In fact, it may make it easier for the Oilers to find a trade, as teams will be more apt to part with defense in exchange for scoring. Even a pick as high as second overall may not fetch the bounty that Nash will, but it would be valuable enough to vastly improve the defense in Edmonton. If a team overpays for Nash, it will only improve the Oilers' bargaining position.

The Oilers always have the option of using their first round pick on a defense prospect like Ryan Murray, Griffin Reinhart or Matt Dumba, or testing the free agent market to improve the defense. But if they want to add a proven NHL player via trade, Rick Nash will have an effect on the market that may be good for Edmonton.

03/01/12 The Oilers Are Not Like the Islanders. Here's Why

If you spend time around the interweb (you're here, so you must), you've probably seen someone call the Oilers "Islanders West," or something similar. As it happens, the troubles the Isles are having has nothing to do with Edmonton, as the two teams aren't that similar at all.

Whether or not you believe the Oilers' rebuild started in 2007, the fact remains that it was then that the team first finished low enough to pick high in the draft and began to accumulate assets. We'll have a peek at both the Oilers and Islanders from 2007 onward, and note the similarities and differences. Both teams are sporting players that were drafted first overall, but there is a lot separating them as well.

Since 2007 the Oilers have made 8 selections in the top 22 spots of the Draft. The pick they surrendered in the Penner offer sheet ended up becoming Tyler Myers (oops), but at least the Oilers were able to turn Penner into one of the 8 first rounders (Klefbom), as well  as former 2008 first round choice Colten Teubert. Including Teubert, they've added 9 players taken within the top 22 in five years. Five of those players (Gagner, Eberle, Paajarvi, Hall and RNH) are already in the NHL and all except Paajarvi are bona fide impact players.

By contrast, the Islanders have added 5 players who were picked in the top 12 since 2007, along with Brock Nelson who went 30th in 2010. Of those, John Tavares, Josh Bailey and Nino Niederreiter are the only ones in the NHL, and only Tavares has been truly impactful.

Wrong though it may be that failure is rewarded richly in the NHL, that is how the Draft works. Had the Islanders picked first overall in consecutive years, as the Oilers did, they would be sitting on John Tavares and Taylor Hall. Instead, the Islanders picked Nino Niederreiter 5th in 2010, who has only 2-1-3 in 48 NHL games thus far. They picked 5th last year as well and took Ryan Strome. Strome has many good characteristics, but he has taken a bit of a step back this year with the Niagara IceDogs in terms of points per game.

For whatever reason (see: luck; losing a lot), the Oilers have had the edge over the Isles at the Draft. In 2008 New York picked Bailey 9th overall with Jordan Eberle still on the board, who didn't hear his name called until 22nd. Because of horrendous losing seasons Edmonton picked up Hall before Niederreiter and Nugent-Hopkins before Strome.

But it wasn't just that. One of Edmonton's first round picks in 2007 originally belonged to the Islanders, and was traded to the Oilers in the Ryan Smyth deal. Also in that deal were the Islanders' 2003 and 2005 first round picks Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra. The resulting player, Alex Plante, isn't setting the world on fire with his play, but New York never had the chance to make the right selection.

Outside the Draft, the Islanders have other problems. Say what you will about the Oilers' blue line, but the men patrolling the back end on the Island may be worse. Mark Streit is the only veteran locked into a contract beyond this year, and that's probably a good thing considering that the roster is a who's-who of badness. Milan Jurcina (minus-28), Mark Eaton (minus-12), Steve Staios (minus-13), and Dylan Reese (!?) make what the Oilers are packing look like the 2007 Anaheim Ducks.

Any other troubles? Sure!

The Islanders may lose one of their leading scorers in PA Parenteau to free agency. Also, after a monstrous 34 goal season last year, Michael Grabner has seen his production slip to 15 goals in 62 games. Rick DiPietro has played a total of 47 games over the last four seasons, and his contract (which expires in 2021!) makes Khabibulin's seem like a bargain. Evgeni Nabokov has been good as a replacement, but unless they can get him re-signed he'll be gone in the off season as well.

As you can see, it's a combination of really bad management, bad luck, and not selecting at the very top of the Draft that has made the Islanders this horrible. Their run of top-five picks actually makes them closer to the Columbus Blue Jackets than it does to the Oilers. 

Make no mistake, however. Having a boatload of picks in the first round does not guarantee success for the Oilers. Having said that, the NHL Draft is a crapshoot and the more choices you have in the high-probability rounds, the better your odds of success. The Islanders haven't done as much as the Oilers have since 2007 when it comes to gathering extremely high end assets, which is why Edmonton and New York are very different. Having another pick as high as second (or even first) overall will only put the Oilers that much further ahead, and widen what will one day be a large gap between them.