a·cu·men [ak-yuh-muhn] noun: keen insight; shrewdness

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Monday 14 March 2011

03/14/11 5.0 Draft Primer Part One: A Look Back

The NHL Draft can mean a lot to a team and its chances of winning the ulimate prize, especially those teams that are able to draft in the top five. In those top five picks one generally finds a player who will make an impact. The Edmonton Oilers are on the road to another top five selection, and most likely they will have the best shot at first overall for the second straight year. The team finds itself in an interesting position this year, as it is clear to all observers that the Oilers need both a number one center and a number one defenseman. In all likelihood, only one of those can be acquired via this draft with the Oilers' first selection. So which position should the Oilers go for? Here is a look at what defensemen and centers have meant to the last five Stanley Cup Champions. To fit the criteria, all players listed must have played at least half their team's games in the playoffs.

2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks:
Defensemen drafted by the team: 3
Centers drafted by the team: 3
Defensemen drafted in the top five: 0
Centers drafted in the top five: 1 (Toews)

The three defensemen that were drafted by this team and eventually won the cup with it were Duncan Keith (round 2), Brent Seabrook (14th overall), and Niklas Hjalmarsson (round 4). In the case of Keith, he won the Norris Trophy as the NHL's best defenseman last year, and yet his draft position wasn't as high as one might expect. This is clear evidence that it is not necessary to take top defensive talent in the top five.

2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins:
Defensemen drafted by the team: 3
Centers drafted by the team: 5
Defensemen drafted in the top five: 0
Centers drafted in the top five: 3 (Crosby, Malkin, Staal)

Again, only half of the defensive group was drafted by the team, and the highest selection among those was Brooks Orpik at 18th overall. The highest pick of the whole group was Sergei Gonchar at #14 by Washington. Cornerstone Kris Letang was a third round pick and Rob Scuderi was picked in round 5.

Conversely, Crosby (#1), Malkin (#2) and Staal (#2) were all taken in the top five slots, and were the overwhelming reason why Pittsburgh was able to march to the cup, and why they continue to be a contender even with the loss of Gonchar, Scuderi and Gill.

2007-08 Detroit Red Wings:
Defensemen drafted by the team: 2
Centers drafted by the team: 4
Defensemen drafted in the top five: 1 (Brad Stuart)
Centers drafted in the top five: 0

Interesting example, since the Red Wings never draft in the top ten. Brad Stuart was a third overall pick by San Jose, but other than that the team's highest pick on defense was Kronwall at #29. Niklas Lidstrom was a third round pick of the Wings. Their second-best defenseman (Rafalski) was undrafted.

Zetterberg and Datsyuk were astute picks from a time when not every team had the best European scouting. Had it not been for these two, Detroit would not have been close to contending. Detroit drafted all four of the centers it used to win the cup and only one third of the defense. Still, this team is a bit of an anomaly since they managed to find so many gems in the late rounds of the draft.

2006-07 Anaheim Ducks:
Defensemen drafted by the team: 0
Centers drafted by the team: 1
Defensemen drafted in the top five: 2 (S. Niedermayer, Pronger)
Centers drafted in the top five: 1 (R. Niedermayer)

This one is interesting because the team actually did have two defensemen who were drafted in the top five. However, neither one of those players was drafted by the Ducks. The rest of the defensive group was scattered in rounds 3 and 6 and Ryan Shannon was undrafted.

As for the centers, Rob Niedermayer was a fifth overall pick way back in 1993. Ryan Getzlaf was taken at #19 and Sammy Pahlsson was taken at #176. Ryan Shannon played 11 of 23 games, so I counted him, but he was undrafted.

Brian Burke's trademark is being able to find players who are undrafted free agents that end up being legitimate NHLers. Getzlaf and Perry are arguably the only players drafted by the Ducks who made an impact in their cup run, and both are forwards. The defense was built entirely through trade and free agency.

2005-06 Carolina Bastards. Er, Hurricanes:
Defensemen drafted by the team: 1
Centers drafted by the team: 1
Defensemen drafted in the top five: 2
Centers drafted in the top five: 1

Aaron Ward and Glen Wesley were both top five picks, but neither of them were selected by Carolina. Only Wallin was actually selected by Carolina in the fourth round. Again, this defense was built through trade and free agency.

Without Eric Staal (#2 overall), this team would not have had a shot at the Stanley Cup.

Overall:
9 of 32 defensemen who played at least half of the playoff games for their team were drafted by that team. This represents about 28%

14 of 24 centers who played at least half of the playoff games for their team were drafted by that team.
This represents about 58%

4 of the 32 defensemen were drafted in the top five.
This represents about 11%

6 of the 24 centers were drafted in the top five.
A full 25%

I think that for the most part this data shows that when it comes to building a Stanley Cup Champion defense, it is not necessary to use a pick in the top five. Of the four defensemen who were picked in the top five, only Niedermayer won a Stanley Cup with the team that drafted him.

Of the 6 centers that were drafted in the top 5, five of them won with the team that selected them. This number is a bit skewed because Jordan Staal, Malkin and Crosby were all on the same team, but then perhaps if they weren't they wouldn't have won.

Centers give a team something that defensemen cannot: they win faceoffs and give the team puck possession. Yes, it's important to get it back and to move it forward, which falls to the defense, but the Oilers have proved this year that if you don't start with the puck it's hard to get any momentum going. Also, hockey is about scoring goals and the better your centers, the more goals you will score. The same cannot necessarily be said for defensemen.

Pick a center, Oilers. It's the beginning of something great.

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