Last time we looked at the disparity between where championship defensemen and centers are drafted. Just as elite centers are typically drafted higher than defensemen, they also take a lot less time to develop. Here is a look at the same five teams as before (the five Stanley Cup Champions since the lockout) and how long it took their key players. The criteria are as follows:
- All players must have been drafted by any team. The reason for this is that players who are unsigned free agents are usually more NHL ready, and also older than 18 year old draft-eligible kids. These players could skew the results, and are therefore excluded.
- The numbers below represent the length of time between each player's draft and the time they won their first Stanley Cup. Several of these players won more than once, which means that they may have won before the last five Championships. To not list these past championships would also skew the results, but the reason that these players are included at all is that they were clearly still in championship form when the Cups from 2006-2010 were awarded.
2010 Chicago Blackhawks:
Defense:
Duncan Keith: 2002 draft, won in 2010. 8 years.
Brian Campbell: 1997 draft, won in 2010. 13 years.
Brent Seabrook: 2003 draft, won in 2010. 7 years.
Niklas Hjalmarsson: 2005 draft, won in 2010. 5 years.
Brent Sopel: 1995 draft, won in 2010. 15 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 9.6 years
Centers:
Jonathan Toews: 2006 draft, won in 2010. 4 years.
Patrick Sharp: 2001 draft, won in 2010. 9 years.
Colin Fraser: 2003 draft, won in 2010. 7 years.
Dave Bolland: 2004 draft, won in 2010. 6 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 6.5 years
Difference of: 3.1 years
2009 Pittsburgh Penguins:
Defense:
Kris Letang: 2005 draft, won in 2009. 4 years.
Sergei Gonchar: 1992 draft, won in 2009. 17 years.
Brooks Orpik: 200 draft, won in 2009. 9 years.
Rob Scuderi: 1998 draft, won in 2009. 11 years.
Hal Gill: 1993 draft, won in 2009. 16 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 11.4 years
Centers:
Sidney Crosby: 2005 draft, won in 2009. 4 years.
Evgeni Malkin: 2004 draft, won in 2009. 5 years.
Jordan Staal: 2006 draft, won in 2009. 3 years.
Tyler Kennedy: 2004 draft, won in 2009. 5 years.
Maxime Talbot: 2002 draft, won in 2009. 7 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 4.8 years
Difference of: 6.6 years
2008 Detroit Red Wings:
Defense:
Nicklas Lidstrom: 1989 draft, won in 1997. 8 years.
Niklas Kornwall: 2000 draft, won in 2008. 8 years.
Chris Chelios: 1981 draft, won in 1986. 5 years.
Andreas Lilja: 2000 draft, won in 2008. 8 years.
Brad Stuart: 1998 draft, won in 2008. 10 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 7.8
Centers:
Henrik Zetterberg: 1999 draft, won in 2008. 9 years.
Pavel Datsyuk: 1998 draft, won in 2002. 4 years.
Kris Draper: 1989 draft, won in 1997. 8 years.
Valteri Filppula: 2002 draft, won in 2008. 6 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 6.75
Difference of: 1.05 years
2007 Anaheim Ducks:
Defense:
Scott Niedermayer: 1991 draft, won in 1995. 4 years.
Chris Pronger: 1993 draft, won in 2007. 14 years.
Francois Beauchemin: 1998 draft, won in 2007. 9 years.
Sean O'Donnell: 1991 draft, won in 2007. 16 years.
Joe DiPenta: 1998 draft, won in 2007. 9 years.
Kent Huskins: 1998 draft, won in 2007. 9 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 10.1 years
Centers:
Ryan Getzlaf: 2003 draft, won in 2007. 4 years
Sammy Pahlsson: 1996 draft, won in 2007. 11 years.
Rob Niedermayer: 1993 draft, won in 2007. 14 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 9.6
Difference of: 0.5 years
2006 Carolina Hurricanes:
Defense:
Frantisek Kaberle: 1999 draft, won in 2006. 7 years.
Brett Hedican: 1988 draft, won in 2006. 18 years.
Aaron Ward: 1991 draft, won in 1997. 6 years.
Mike Commodore: 1999 draft, won in 2006. 7 years.
Glen Wesley: 1987 draft, won in 2006. 19 years.
Niklas Wallin: 2000 draft, won in 2006. 6 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 10.5
Centers:
Eric Staal: 2003 draft, won in 2006. 3 years.
Matt Cullen: 1996 draft, won in 2006. 10 years.
Doug Weight: 1990 draft, won in 2006. 16 years.
Average time between draft and first Stanley Cup: 9.6
Difference of: 0.9 years
Overall the defense of these teams is much older than the centers are. Also, this data shows once again how long the learning curve is for defensemen, compared with the relatively short curve for centers. Players of either position may step in and be effective right away, but typically the centers can do it sooner. Moreover, the centers can perform at a championship level sooner.
Of the defensemen listed, only Scott Niedermayer, Chris Chelios and Kris Letang won the Stanley Cup within five years of being drafted, and there are more of them than the centers. Of those three, only Niedermayer was a top-five pick. Ward, Wesley, Pronger, Niedermayer and Stuart were all defensemen picked in the top five. They took 6, 19, 14, 4 and 10 seasons respectively to win it all; an average of 10.6 years between them.
Of all these defensemen, the average time it took them to win a Cup from their draft was 9.9 years.
As for the centers, 8 won a Stanley Cup within the first five years: Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Kennedy, J. Staal, E. Staal, Datsyuk, and Getzlaf. Five of those players were selected in the top five. As such, every top-five-pick center won the cup within 5 years. Once again, in must be noted that 3 of them were on the same team, but perhaps they wouldn't have won otherwise.
Of all these centers, the average time it took them to win a Cup from their draft was 7.1 years.
Naturally, many say that the Oilers won't be ready to contend for another few years, and therefore it won't matter if it takes a while to bring a defenseman along. To properly develop a defenseman - especially a European one - time in the AHL is almost a necessity. Adam Larsson is not eligible for the AHL this coming year, which means that he would stay in Sweden. His apparent NHL comparable Nicklas Lidstom spent two more years in the Swedish Elite League after being drafted. Larsson could play in the NHL, of course, but to expect him to dominate or even live up to his potential is probably a pipe dream. Can Oiler fans sit back and watch 2011 draft-eligible centers play in the NHL while their defenseman slogs along in Edmonton or plays in the SEL?
More importantly, how long will it take a player like Nugent-Hopkins or Sean Couturier to be dominant at their position? And Larsson? Will the Oilers still be many years away if they take a center?
It should be said that I am an Adam Larsson fan in a big way. It's only because the team has to choose that I am trying to create a separation between the positions. I believe that what Larsson brings can be found in trade and free agency as this team matures, and waiting 8-10 years for that same kind of ability from a player like Larsson is too long.
Oilers! TAKE A CENTER.
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