09/28/11 The Trade That Will Define Tambellini

So far, the highlights of Steve Tambellini's tenure as Oilers General Manager have been two 30th place finishes and two 1st overall picks. While the resulting players are impressive, any idiot could have acquired them. Up to now Tambellini's teams have not made the playoffs either. Soon that will have to change. It hasn't happened yet, but some time in the next 12 months Steve Tambellini will make a trade that will define his success or failure as Oilers GM.

As impressive as Nugent-Hopkins and Hall looked together last night against Phoenix, and as much as there is still talent to come, the Oilers don't have it all figured out. Over the course of this season it will be made abundantly clear once again that the Oilers aren't good enough defensively. This team is still a number one defenseman away from the playoffs.

It's possible that that player is somewhere in the organization; be it Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marinicin, Taylor Fedun, Jeff Petry or another as yet undrafted defenseman. The trouble is that Tambellini doesn't have long to wait. It would take a minor miracle for the Oilers to make the post season this year (pray to every God you've ever heard of around Christmas time), which means we're in for six consecutive years of no playoff hockey in Edmonton. That's just sad, and the GM knows it. If that streak runs to seven years, Tambellini's job will be far from secure.

Ryan Suter

A free agent signing is one possible way to help bolster the Oilers' defense. Nashville's Ryan Suter can become a UFA after this season, but is he a number one guy? He could certainly help this team, but he's also the top of the heap when it comes to defensive UFAs next summer. His price tag will probably make even Glen Sather blush and there will be no shortage of suitors. No pun intended. After this season the Oilers may once again be a desirable location for free agents, but there are still the 29 other teams to contend with and a small number of impact defenders for them to vie for.

Edmonton's answer, therefore, will probably come via trade. Who is available and for what is anyone's guess, but the picture will become clearer as time goes on. Will it be Ales Hemsky who is moved, or will it be players like Teemu Hartikainen or Linus Omark? What about Sam Gagner? Much will depend on the kind of seasons that these players have.

The main thing is that the Oilers should be looking to fill the hole on defense. If there was any truth to the supposed Oilers interest in Zach Bogosian, it's clear that the organization is moving in that direction. Bogosian would have been a perfect fit, in that he's still young enough to stick for a long time but with enough potential to be a number one guy. Now Tambellini will need another target.

And whoever that target is, he'll have to be acquired in the next 12-18 months for the team to take a step from pretender to contender for the 2012-13 season. There is little doubt that something will get done. Whatever the deal ends up being, its fortunes will fall in line with Tambellini's. A trade for a true impact defender is likely to be the biggest move of his career. It's time for him to show everyone what he's made of.

09/26/11 First Overall Picks and Getting Left Back

Should Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stay in the NHL or go back to the WHL? Here are the facts about players picked first overall over the last 20 years (1991-2010):

14 of the 20 players selected first in the NHL draft from 1991-2010 jumped directly to the NHL.

2 of the players that didn't make the jump (Jovanovski and Ovechkin) were held back because of lockouts in the big show. There is some debate about whether or not Jovanovski would have made the Florida Panthers, but there is no doubt that Ovechkin would have gone directly to the NHL if he had had the opportunity to do so. Eric Lindros would certainly have made it 16 of the 20 first picks to make the dance if he had been willing to play for the Nordiques. He was not, so he spent another year in the OHL awaiting a trade.

The only other player aside from RNH who was drafted first overall from the WHL - Chris Phillips - was one of those held back for one year. However, Phillips is a defenseman and that was back in 1996. 4 of the 6 players who didn't jump straight to the NHL were drafted between 1991-1996.

No player has been held back since Erik Johnson was taken first overall in 2006.

No forward has failed to directly make the jump except for Lindros and Ovechkin, who both had other circumstances than ability holding them back.

At least 2 of these picks were busts. The jury is still out on DiPietro, but he's teetering on the precipice if he's not over already. The two busts were Daigle and Stefan, both of whom went straight to the NHL and neither of whom were busts for that reason. Daigle scored 20-31-51 as a rookie for Ottawa, but didn't have the drive to stay in the NHL, and Stefan was simply a busted pick in a bad draft class. His 35 points in 33 IHL games were hardly indicative of a future offensive superstar.

Perhaps 3 of these players - Thornton, Lecavalier and DiPietro - would have benefitted from remaining at a lower level for another season. Thornton scored just 3-4-7 in 55 games as a rookie, Lecavalier had 13-15-28 in 82 games, and DiPietro posted just a 3-15-1 record as a rookie before being demoted. When DiPietro returned to full time NHL duty he was much improved. Neither Thornton or Lecavalier had their careers ruined by being rushed to the NHL.

So, should Nugent-Hopkins be the 15th first overall pick in the last 21 years to go straight to the NHL?

RNH is now 6'1" and around 180 pounds. Joe Thornton was 6'4" and 198 pounds on draft day, and yet he failed to make an impact right away. Lecavalier was 6'4" and 180 pounds. He performed better than Thornton, but didn't necessarily live up to the hype as a rookie. Stefan was 6'1" and 205 pounds. Patrick Kane was listed at 5'10" and 160 pounds, yet he came in and scored 21-51-72 in 82 games as a rookie.

What matters when it comes to making the NHL is not necessarily size, but an ability to understand the game at that higher level. Nugent-Hopkins is so far above his peers in the WHL that his brain might be a fit in the NHL. At the very least the NHL experience can teach him more than the CHL can. If he looks ready after 9 games there is no precedent that suggests he should not remain an Oiler because it will be bad for his development.

09/25/11 68.0 Looking Good

The Oilers looked pretty snappy tonight, downing the Shames 3-0. Here are some points of interest from the game:

- Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan Smyth, Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner did not play in this game, but the Oilers were still able to muster plenty of fire power. It's only the pre-season, but for the powerplay to click twice without all those regulars is encouraging, especially against 2 NHL-quality goaltenders.

- Speaking of goaltenders, Devan Dubnyk looked good picking up the shutout. The Flames didn't have all of their regulars in the lineup either, but 30 saves is still 30 saves.

- Corey Potter led all Oilers in ice time with 24:19 and did not look out of place. If he keeps it up he will be in a good position to get called up when injuries strike, and may not actually be much of a step down from an injured regular. At 27, he's a veteran of 5 AHL seasons. He's still young enough to be part of the Oilers' plans, but he probably won't stick around if he doesn't have a realistic shot of making the NHL. He'll be a UFA at the end of this season.

- Taylor Fedun was third in ice time with 20:41. He too played well, and he's under contract for this season and next. At 23 he's still got plenty of time to grow into an NHL regular, and he'll only be a Restricted Free Agent in 2013.

- Jordan Eberle will score 30 goals this season. Prediction in writing. Hopefully if he doesn't no one will remember...

- Jay Bouwmeester played 27:23 in this game, which doesn't make a lot of sense. Why overwork him in the pre-season when he'll be logging loads of ice time during the year? Aside from that, the outcome of this game does not matter, so why not give those minutes to a young up-and-comer? Oh, right, Calgary doesn't have any.

Looking forward to Tuesday night.

09/23/11 67.0 Fixing the Shootout

There's been a lot of debate about the shootout since it was introduced. Purists hate it. "It's a team game," they cry from their aged plaid recliners. "It should be decided in overtime or not at all!" Others love the shootout and its excitement. "Penalty shots are hockey's greatest play," is these people's refrain; usually hollering from their skateboards. "The shootout is like a ton of penalty shots! What could be bad?"


The fact is that both of these arguments are true. The shootout really is exciting, and it also keeps us fans from having to endure the worst outcome in any game - the tie. Every time there's a tie, you can't help but feel cheated. What if it's a tie at zero? Thanks to the shootout, you didn't watch 3 hours of men skating around for nothing. There will be an exciting penalty shot derby to decide the winner. Shootouts also keep us from having to stay up all night watching endless playoff-style overtime games. You can have a life outside of hockey; if, for some reason, you wanted one.

But it's also true that a shootout doesn't decide which is the best team in a particular evening, or even in an entire season. Plenty of teams have made the playoffs on the strength of shootout wins, and that doesn't seem right either.

Bob McCown suggested that the NHL go to a different points system; one in which a regulation win would be worth 4 points, an overtime win worth 3 points, a shootout win would be worth 2 points and an overtime or shootout loss being worth 1 each. Needless to say, that would require a complete restructuring of the points system.

Instead, the points could be awarded like this:

2 points for a regulation or overtime win, 1 point for a shootout win or overtime loss, and 0 points for a shootout loss. The 'Shootout Loss' column would be changed to 'Shootout Wins.' A team's record would be Wins-Losses-OT Losses-SO Wins.

Nobody would play just to get to the shootout because to do so would mean sacrificing at least one point and possibly leaving with none. There would be much greater importance placed on winning the game in regulation or overtime, while still allowing for the excitement of the shootout without rewarding it too much.

Teams that can get it done in regulation would always have the best records, while shootout teams - like the Oilers were a few years ago - wouldn't have ridiculously inflated records.

Everybody happy?

09/22/11 66.0 Is He Ready?

Are you ready, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?

It's now been two pre-season games for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and two points on the board for the young man. He's a point-per-game player; the Oilers picked the right guy!

Alright, maybe he won't score 82 points this year - even though he's on pace for it! - but so far he does look ready to take a step up. There were moments when he was the best player on the ice in both games that he's appeared in. Of course, that isn't saying much considering the quality of competition, but if the point of having him play these games was to see if he could handle it, it's mission accomplished on his part.

He's showcased the vision and puck skills that made him the #1 pick, but his ability to strip opposing players of the puck is reminiscent of Datsyuk - a player that he's been compared to at the NHL level. He doesn't seem overwhelmed - mentally or physically - like young players can sometimes be, and he's managed to put up points. More importantly, he's generating plenty of chances. If he can keep it up as the games get tougher, it will be hard to send him back to Red Deer.

He got killed in the faceoff dot though, which is something that the Oilers don't need more of. Eric Belanger talked about learning to win draws all the way back in Junior, so if Nugent-Hopkins did go back his faceoff skills could improve there. On the other hand, RNH could learn to take draws from the likes of Belanger and Horcoff. Which is better for his development?

If Nugent-Hopkins does stay in Edmonton, the center depth chart will look something like this:

Gagner

Nugent-Hopkins

Horcoff

Belanger

Brule

Lander

In the pre-season RNH has spent all his time with Smyth and Eberle, which means that he'd probably be centering that second line in the NHL. That's a solid group, and it puts Horcoff in a third line role, which is probably where his career path has led him. On a championship team Horcoff would be no further up the depth chart than that.

Of course, the grind of an NHL season is something that no young man can truly prepare for, but the only way to learn it is by experiencing it. Another year of Junior hockey won't do that for RNH.

Tonight the Oilers played an AHL team, but Chicago iced some actual veterans on Tuesday and Nugent-Hopkins didn't look out of place. If he looks as good in the final pre-season game as he has in the first two, he's probably ready to make the jump.

If.

09/22/11 11.9 Odds & Ends: No Doughty Trade, Foster, Modano

Drew Doughty continues to hold out on his contract negotiations, but he won't be traded because of it. Let's nix the rumors and trade ideas - a deal is going to get done. However, this article is suggesting that the Kings want a deal longer than six years so as to avoid Anze Kopitar and Doughty becoming UFAs at the same time. Doughty has rejected deals for longer than five years because he doesn't want to give up valuable years of Unrestricted Free Agency.

The longer this goes, the more the fans will favor Doughty; but he might actually be in the right here. Dean Lombardi is thinking about the future, which is a good thing for a General Manager to do, but his team is in win-now mode. If Doughty misses a significant amount of playing time because he remains unsigned, Lombardi may not have the GM's chair in LA five years from now anyway. The Kings can't afford to stumble out of the gate, because even the wins in October count when playoff seeding is determined. LA is a good team, but they'll still be in tough to win the division against San Jose. That means that they have to amass as many points as possible to get home ice advantage in the post season.

Most of this Kings team is going to have to be replaced in five years anyway, so by that time their cap situation will be completely different. Whether Doughty signs in 5 years or 6 or 7 won't really matter as long as Lombardi's new hires are signed to fit around what will be two very large future deals for Doughty and Kopitar.

Kurtis Foster is going to miss 2-4 weeks for the Anaheim Ducks because a wire is being removed from his surgically repaired leg. Oilers: 2, California GMs: 0. In the end the trade of Foster for Sutton is a nothing move because Sutton isn't in the long term plans anyway and Foster didn't work out. If Sutton is healthy for the start of the season, the Oilers can call it a small victory. Provided that Foster doesn't rack up 40+ points this year, that is.

Mike Modano's retirement means that all Oilers fans can breath a sigh of relief. He may not have been the same Oiler killer that he was in years gone by, but now it really feels like it's the Oilers' time. In all seriousness, Modano was a fantastic player and a deserving first overall pick. If Nugent-Hopkins or Taylor Hall turn out as well as Modano did, all Oilers fans should be happy.

09/20/11 65.0 Double Vision

Another set of eyes is exactly what an Edmonton hockey fan needed tonight. If you didn't go to the home game and you're anything like me, you probably tried to watch both games at once online. It was a case of sacrificing a little bit of the details to get a sense of the overall picture.

There was simply too much to watch in both games to watch just one of them.

In Edmonton, the Oilers group rallied from a 3-0 deficit and outplayed their opponent after the first period, only to be downed by a late goal. The line of Paajarvi, Lander and Omark looked like the best one from either team on this night. Lander continued his strong play with a goal and an assist in this first step up from the Young Stars Tournament. Lander is used to the SEL, so it's no surprise that he has continued to be a force. It's possible that Lander could earn a spot on the NHL team, but one wonders if that's the best thing for him. He'll be a key contributor to the squad in Oklahoma City, and the playing time he gets down there would serve him well. He'll probably find himself in a similar situation to what Linus Omark went through last year. As soon as Brule suffers the inevitable injury, the Oilers will be burning up the phone lines to get Lander back to E-Town.

Unfortunately, Nikolai Khabibulin allowed 3 goals on the 10 shots he faced in half a game of action and didn't do much to alleviate fears that he won't be bouncing back - and this was only the pre-season. Tyler Bunz looked solid as always, and the goal he allowed came through a pile of traffic with the Wild on the powerplay.

Taylor Hall was a minus-2 in this game. He showed offensive flair as always, but couldn't convert. Then again, it was his first game action since early March.

Antti Tyrvainen scored the tying goal and seemed to play well enough that he may survive the next round of cuts.

In Saskatoon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins came on strong right out of the gate. He stripped players of pucks, created scoring opportunities and assisted on a goal that was tipped in by Ryan Smyth. He definitely survived the first test and didn't look out of place in his professional debut. In fact, at times he looked dominant. Although there will probably still be people saying "he missed the open net when Chicago pulled their goalie! The Oilers should have drafted Larsson!"

Devan Dubnyk played better in this game than Khabibulin did in his, and this is another piece of evidence that suggests that Dubnyk must be the starter right now.

Seeing Ryan Smyth in Oiler silks again was great, even if he was just a tiny, grainy little image that sometimes bounced around on the screen thanks to the lag. The line with Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle was dangerous all night and there's every possibility that that combination could carry right into the regular season.

Boy was it ever nice to watch some Oilers hockey again.