04/05/13 Shea Weber: What Would It Take?

The limitation that prevents the Nashville Predators from trading Shea Weber ends on July 19th. It seems completely crazy to trade one of the league's top defenseman, but stranger things have happened under lower pressure circumstances.

07/24/12 Can Yakupov Score 30?

It's hard not to look at a young Russian first overall pick and think: Alex Ovechkin. Ilya Kovalchuk. These are some of the most prolific scorers in the NHL today, but only Kovalchuk scored 30 before his 20th birthday, and that 2002-03 season was his second. Can Yakupov accomplish the feat as a 19 year old rookie?

05/25/12 Hemsky's Age and Drafting Yakupov

With Eberle and Hemsky in the fold, everything looks peachy-keen at right wing for the Oilers. Hemsky has been around so long it's easy to take him for granted and hard to remember that he was drafted eleven long years and several surguries ago.

05/05/12 Cam Barker Then and Now

A lot can change after draft day. Normally when you're picking in the top three it's a safe bet that you're getting one of the best players available in a given year, but that's not always the case. As Jonathan Willis said at the Cult of Hockey, once we have more data on a player than his Junior performance, it's important to listen to that data. But there were warning signs with Cam Barker even in his draft year.

04/18/12 Tobias Rieder: Emerging Force

In reading the name Tobias Rieder, many people will ask themselves this: who? Lost in the shuffle of high draft picks and high-end prospects that the Oilers have collected is the young German, Rieder, who had a breakout season with the Kitchener Rangers this year. He's continuing it into the playoffs, where he's been even better.

Oilers fans couldn't stop talking about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins after last year's draft. Other 2011 selections like Oscar Klefbom as well as current Western League players Martin Gernat, David Musil and Travis Ewanyk have ended up getting the most ink. But quietly, Tobias Rieder has established himself as one of the top scorers in the OHL.

With 42-43-85 in just 60 games, the 5'11" and 190 pound former 4th round pick was tenth in the OHL in scoring. He was fifth in the league in goals, second in game winners with 8, and third in short handed goals with 7 in just his second OHL season. Rieder led his team in scoring by a comfortable margin, as the player in second had 69 points, and projected first round pick Radek Faksa was third with 66.

Rieder helped the Rangers to finish in third place in the OHL's Western Conference with a record of 42-24-1-1, and they faced the 6th-seeded Owen Sound Attack in the first round of the playoffs. There, Rieder took over.

He lit the lamp seven times and added six assists while dispatching the Attack in five games, good for 2.6 points per game. He didn't slow down much in the second round either, where the Rangers came up against the OHL's second-best team, the Plymouth Whalers. In a back-and-forth seven game series, Rieder tallied 3-7-10, including a goal and two assists in the deciding game, which Kitchener took 6-3. He is currently leading all OHL playoff scorers with 23 points in 12 games.

Rieder didn't crack the Oilers' top ten prospects in the 2012 Hockey News Future Watch, but after the season he has had it's going to be tough to keep him below players like Ryan Martindale and Curtis Hamilton. The likelihood of his being able to contribute at the NHL level is climbing, but it's going to be tough for him to climb all the way with Edmonton. The Oilers already have more forwards than they know what to do with, and adding Yakupov and another slough of high picks in each round will make things that much more muddled.

The good news for Rieder is that there's no rush. He will turn 20 on January 10th, which means that he just missed the December 31st cutoff for AHL eligibility next season. Another year of Junior won't hurt him, and due to his smaller stature it's better if he isn't rushed along. By the time Rieder is close enough to the NHL to even think about making it, the situation in Edmonton could be very different. And even if the Oilers never use him, his increasing value could make him an attractive trade asset down the line.

Right now, Tobias Rieder looks like a steal at 114th overall. He's a long way from a sure thing, but his progress has been impressive. Way to go, Stu.

04/12/12 Is P.K. Subban The Guy?

P.K. Subban has a bit of a cocky reputation around the NHL, and not everyone likes his style. Perhaps it's just that type of personality that the Oilers could use on their defense. Just how good is Subban? And is he the kind of player that would be worth the first overall pick?

The answer to the first question is that Subban is very good already, and he's likely to get better as he ages and earns more experience. He's a right-handed shot and has collected 76 points in 160 NHL games of his young career, but the points are only part of the story.

At even strength, Subban faced the second-toughest competition among Canadiens blueliners this season, and the drop-off after him and Josh Gorges is substantial. Despite that, his relative Corsi number is second only to Andrei Markov, who played just 13 games this year. That number isn't inflated by cushiony zone starts either, as he has started his shifts in the offensive zone just 46.3% of the time 5x5. He's had some bounces go his way, but the underlying arrows are all pointing in the right direction.

It's easy to believe that Subban regressed a little this season because he posted 36 points after a 38-point rookie campaign, but the workload that he was shouldered with this year was much heavier than what it was in 2010-11. He went from being a minus-8 as a rookie while facing average competition to a plus-9 facing the toughs. He also led the Canadiens in ice time with a massive 24:18 per game, broken down thusly:

Even strength: 18:19 (1st)
Powerplay: 3:29 (3rd)
Penalty Kill: 2:36 (3rd)

At just 22 years old, P.K. Subban is a major contributor to every discipline. So why would Montreal trade him?

There are a variety of reasons. If the Oilers were to offer that first overall pick as part of a deal, Nail Yakupov would be a perfect fit for Montreal. Beyond 33-year-old Erik Cole, the Canadiens don't have a lot in the way of right wingers, and the cupboards are bare when it comes to potential reinforcements. Aaron Palushaj got into 38 games this year, but he tallied just five points.

That's a symptom of a larger problem. The Canadiens were ranked 28th in The 2012 Hockey News Future Watch, and there is very little offense coming through the organization. Adding to the attack at the top of the draft would be a boon for Montreal, but by the time the they make the third selection the two most potent offensive threats are likely to be gone.

What will be available at number 3 is a highly rated defenseman.

Would Montreal accept a bit of a downgrade on defense in order to add an elite scoring threat? Time will tell.  The Oilers may want more than just Subban for a player like Yakupov, but if a trade presents itself they could probably do worse.

04/10/12 Yakupov or Trade?

Poor Scott Howson.

Now that the order is set and the Oilers lucked into their third straight first overall pick, the question becomes whether they should use it or trade it for help. Let's see who might be interested in the pick, what they might be willing to part with, or if keeping the pick is the best course.

The List

When compiling a list of teams that might be interested in the first overall pick, we have to set some guidelines. First, the consensus number one prospect is Nail Yakupov, and we can approach trading the first overall pick with the mindset that the Oilers are essentially trading Yakupov to another team. Yakupov is a right winger, and after two years in Junior where he collected 170 points in 107 games (80 goals), we can assume that he's going to be in the NHL next season. That means a trading partner should probably need a boost on the right wing, but they should definitely be a team in need of scoring help next year.

Minnesota: Lowest scoring team in a decade, and their second-highest scoring right winger was Cal Clutterbuck. They would love to add Yakupov, but the Oilers would be taking an awful risk trading him within the division. Minnesota's second best prospect is Jonas Brodin, a very highly rated shutdown defenseman from Sweden who is 12th in 2012 The Hockey News Future Watch top 50 prospects outside the NHL. Minnesota picks 7th in this year's draft, so the Oilers might consider trading down. Or the Oilers could ask for Tom Gilbert back. Ha-ha...

Los Angeles: The Kings were the second-lowest scoring team in the NHL this year, but their problem is on the left side. The Kings are extremely rich in defensive prospects but the Oilers need help for next year. Much talked-about rearguard Slava Voynov (8-12-20 in 54 NHL games) may be available, but he would just be the start of a deal.

Florida: This team had trouble putting the puck in the net this year, and they might be interested in a forward who wears #10 because of former Panther Pavel Bure. For the first time in a long time the Panthers won't be picking at the top of the draft, and after making the playoffs this season they'll surely want to continue that success next season. Goalie Jacob Markstrom had a 0.923 Sv%  and 2.66 GAA in 7 games with Florida this year, and will push for a starting job in 2012-13. The Oilers might also have interest in defenseman Dmitry Kulikov, whose points per game have increased every year since he was a rookie in 2009-10.

Colorado: The Av's were 25th in scoring and they could use a high end replacement for the aging Milan Hejduk at right wing. However, Colorado doesn't have what the Oilers need on defense to make a trade worth while. Matt Duchene could be available, but the Oilers would probably rather roll the dice with Yakupov. Also, Colorado doesn't control its own first round pick thanks to the Varlamov trade. Unlikely to be a deal here.

Anaheim: Two words: Cam Fowler. The Ducks were 23rd in scoring despite Selanne, Perry, Getzlaf and Ryan, and there's every chance that the Finnish Flash won't be back. Fowler is unpolished defensively, but he's got offensive tools that the Oilers lack. However, the role that Fowler would fill on the Oilers could potentially be filled by another player whose time as Ducks property may be nearing its end: Justin Schultz. Schultz may become an unrestricted free agent, and another high end forward combined with a lacking defense would make Edmonton an attractive destination for defender like Schultz. Anaheim picks 6th, but it's not clear if they have any assets that would entice Edmonton to trade down.

Phoenix: 18th in scoring, with Ray Whitney and Shane Doan both UFAs at season's end. One way to encourage fan interest in the desert would be to add a young potential superstar into the mix to replace their aging core. Oliver Ekman-Larsson would be the target here. He picked up 13-19-32 in 82 games this season, and played over 22 minutes per game. Ekman-Larsson may not be enough on his own for a player like Yakupov, but he's a very good start.

Buffalo: Oilers fans would probably like to see Tyler Myers come to Edmonton, but with the Sabres having added Cody Hodgson at the deadline they may be hesitant to make a major deal. However, there is an ambitious owner in that city who may want to make something happen. Myers is a former rookie of the year, but his point totals have declined in the two years since then.

Carolina: Could use some help on the wing, and will be picking 8th this year. May consider trading up by using defensive prospect Ryan Murphy, who is an assist machine with Kitchener. Murphy is small, however, which doesn't necessarily make him a fit in Edmonton.

Washington: For all their scoring prowess, the Caps are fairly weak at right wing, and would probably love to add another Russian sniper; especially with Alexander Semin set to become a UFA. If John Carlson could be had the Oilers might listen, but it will take more to land the Yak. Mike Green is a name that might seem attractive, but his injury history and $5.25 million cap hit will spook just about anyone.

Winnipeg: Lacking a game breaker on the right side, like a lot of teams. Right handed shooting defenseman Zach Bogosian would be a nice addition, especially coming off a career-high 30 points in 65 games. These rumors were out there last summer as well, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them crop up again or even for something to get done this time.

***

Having said all that, trading the first overall pick would mean passing on a player who scored 80 goals in 107 OHL games. That's a better rate than Taylor Hall scored at with Windsor and we all know how he turned out. Not quite at Stamkos' level with Sarnia when he was there, but close. Can they afford to pass?

If Ales Hemsky has a bounce-back year he could once again become trade bait and the Oilers will be comfortably set at right wing with Eberle and Yakupov. A lot of things can happen between now and the start of next season, let alone the end. Imagine two or three years down the road. And if it's a matter of adding a defenseman, the Oilers may be able to do it by trading other pieces or by signing UFAs. Having a forward group as lethal as this one will be can be nothing but attractive to the league's best defensemen.

It's a nice problem to have. Either way, the Oilers should be very much improved in the near future.

04/02/12 The Oilers, The Defense, and The Draft

Last year Steve Tambellini said that it didn't matter if the player the Oilers picked first overall played in the NHL in 2011-12. With the state of the defense what it is, might that position change this time around? And if so, what defenseman in the 2012 draft class is most ready to make the jump?

I asked prospect guru Corey Pronman the latter question, and his reply was simple: Murray.

Ryan Murray has been a highly regarded defenseman for a very long time. He was selected ninth overall by Everett in the 2008 Bantam Draft and since then he's spent three full seasons there, compiling 103 points in 168 games. Back in February, Murray told NHL.com that he doesn't find playing defense all that hard because he has been doing it all his life. He means it; having played hockey since he was two years old.

Some compare Murray to Scott Niedermayer, while he compares himself to Chicago's Duncan Keith. To Steve Yzerman, Murray is more like Hall of Fame defenseman Mark Howe. Murray's former General Manager in Everett, Doug Soetaert, thinks that Murray is better than Cam Fowler was when he got to the NHL, and better than Luke Schenn and Tyler Myers. If Murray can somehow combine the skills and quality of those players he will be a very good player indeed. One certainty is that his skating is a huge asset, as is calmness and ability to steady the back end. Central Scouting's B.J. MacDonald said of Murray that "he never gets out of position and I've never seen him lose a one-on-one battle. He's always, defensively, in the right spots."

Murray's offensive totals don't jump off the page at you, having collected 9-22-31 in 46 games this season after losing time to a high ankle sprain and the World Juniors, but he possesses a good first pass and offensive instincts. His 0.67 points per game this season came on a team with the third-lowest goal total in the entire WHL, and he contributed to almost 17% of his team's offensive production. He was also an even player on a predominantly minus Silvertips squad. In the playoffs he led his team in scoring with 3-2-5 in a four game sweep at the hands of the Tri City Americans.

There is some concern with the injury Murray suffered back in October, and there's no way to definitively say what his ceiling will be in the NHL, but this player looks like he would be a solid addition to the Oilers. With Edmonton mired at the bottom of the league standings they will certainly have the opportunity to add him. Considering how poor the Oilers' defense has been at times this season, even an 18 year old would be a major improvement. Murray may not fit exactly with the Oilers' timeline, but if he's the best player on the board when the Oilers step up to the podium, fans should be very happy if they draft him.

03/25/12 Odds & Ends: Calgary, Standings, Dubnyk

Sunday's win over Columbus brings the Oilers up to 31 wins on the season, and extends a streak over the last 11 games which has seen them go 6-2-3. The implications of this run are many, but are they a harbinger of things to come? Time will tell. For now, however, improved play from the Oilers means the following:

- The Oilers have caught up to the Minnesota Wild in wins on the season and they have 26 Regulation or Overtime Wins (ROW) to the Wild's 23. The Oilers have played one more game than Minny has, but when the Wild were on top of the Conference they had 20 wins to the Oilers' 14, and Edmonton was sitting in 13th place. The Wild are 3-7-0 in their last ten games, and if things continue this way it's a good bet that they'll finish behind the Oilers.

- Speaking of finishing behind the Oilers, the Calgary Flames could still be a candidate for that if it wasn't for the loser point. The Flames have lost five straight after a five game win streak, and now sit with 34 wins on the season - just three more than the Oilers have collected. Even if the Flames finish a few wins ahead of the Oilers, that has to be viewed as an unacceptable result for Flames fans that were guaranteed playoffs before the season. The Oilers will have a tough time catching the Flames in the standings thanks to Calgary having 6 more points from OT/Shootout losses, but the win column is still within striking distance.

The Flames get the Stars, Kings, Avalanche, Ducks and Canucks twice in their final six; and all of those teams save the Ducks should be highly motivated. The Oilers get the Kings and Ducks twice, along with the Stars and Canucks. Not an easy game in the bunch for Edmonton, but the team has been playing much better lately and they might surprise one or two of those teams.

If the Oilers can take a record of 3-2-1 out of those last six games it would give them a record of 9-4-4 in their last 17. That's actually better than the way their started the season, when the went 9-6-2 in their first 17.

- A big reason for the reemergence of the Oilers is the play of Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk has won 9 of his last 13 starts and he's owned a 0.933 Sv% over that time. On the whole, his save percentage is sitting at 0.914 on the season. Make no mistake: that's starting goalie territory. Of goalies who have played 40 or more games this season, Dubnyk's save percentage ranks 17th right now. Some notables below him in that category include Antti Niemi, Craig Anderson, Jonas Hiller, Cam Ward, Ilya Bryzgalov and Martin Brodeur. Of course, this doesn't mean that Dubnyk is a lock to be a starting goaltender in the future, but the indications are that he is giving his team as much of a chance to win as these other goalies; many of whom are backstopping far superior groups. At one time I found Dubnyk to be the most disappointing Oiler of 2011-12, and now he's become one of their strengths.

- With two assists on Sunday afternoon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has re-taken the rookie scoring lead in the NHL with 49 points in 56 games. Gabriel Landeskog went on a bit of a tear recently and yet his 48 points have come in 77 games with Colorado. It's been said before and deserves to be said again: if Nugent-Hopkins hadn't been injured there would be no debate about rookie of the year honors. It may not factor into the final decision in Calder voting, but Landeskog was thought to be the most NHL-ready prospect available at the draft, while Nugent-Hopkins wasn't even supposed to make the Oilers in the eyes of many. His performance speaks for itself.

- The Oilers are within 4 or fewer points of the Wild, Islanders, Leafs, Ducks, Hurricanes and Lightning in league standings right now. If a few of those teams fall off and the Oilers continue to roll, they could find themselves on the outside of the NHL Draft Lottery. Time will tell if that's a good thing or bad thing, but it may reduce the conflict about drafting a defenseman this year. Start getting familiar with names like Reinhart, Murray, Dumba, Trouba, Rielly, and Ceci, because they could all be in the conversation from 3-10 overall.

03/21/12 Best Player Available

Is this the face of the young man who will be the newest Edmonton Oiler at the end of June? This is Mikhail Griogorenko, who plays for the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL, and he has the talent to be selected as high as second overall at the 2012 Entry Draft. If the draft was today the Oilers would be picking in that slot.

Mikhail Grigorenko

Born: May 16, 1994 in Khabarovsk, Russia
6 feet, 2 inches tall and 191 pounds
Shoots: left
Position: C/RW

40-45-85 in 59 games, plus-35, 12 PIMs

It's plainly obvious that the Oilers require an overhaul to their defense, and there has been plenty of talk about trading this year's lottery pick to do it, or even just using the pick to add a blue chip defense prospect. Both of those might be options, but if the Oilers actually use the pick they should still use it on the best player available. If that player is  Grigorenko, the Oilers should add him regardless of their glut of talented youth up front.

Having three highly skilled centers in Grigorenko, Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner would be an embarrassment of riches, and it's a situation similar to the one that worked out so nicely for the Pittsburgh Penguins. In the 2006 Entry Draft the St. Louis Blues selected defenseman Erik Johnson first overall, and with that the Penguins didn't have a conflict about whether or not they should draft a forward. There wasn't another defenseman picked until Ty Wishart went 16th overall to San Jose, and Pittsburgh certainly wasn't using their second pick overall on that player. Instead they added Jordan Staal, despite the fact that they already had two brilliant centers in Crosby and Malkin. Three years later Pittsburgh won the Stanley Cup.

Adding Grigorenko doesn't mean that the Oilers will be able to completely emulate what Pittsburgh did, but it would draw the comparison a lot closer than it stands currently. The Oilers need some size up the middle, and Gagner (5'11", 195 lbs) and Nugent-Hopkins (6'1", 175 lbs) don't bring much to the table. Having these three would make the Oilers three lines deep and one day they would be very difficult to match up against.

Other notes:

Grigorenko is second on his team in total faceoffs taken and he's just a hair over 50% at 572/1131. Not necessarily a master in the dot, but he's keeping his head above water as a 17 year old in his first QMJHL season.

At the 2012 World Junior Championship, Grigorenko had 2-3-5 in 6 games and helped Russia to a silver medal. It was his first appearance in the tournament. At the World U18 Championship in 2011 he had 4-14-18 in just 7 games in Russia's bronze medal finish.

The playoffs start Thursday for Grigorenko's Remparts, and they have drawn the Drummondville Voltigeurs in the first round. The Remparts will have home ice advantage.

His decision to play for the Remparts in the CHL shows a certain amount of commitment to playing in the NHL, and should eliminate much of the stigma of being a Russian-born player.

***

The Oilers have done very well recently in drafting the best player available instead of the biggest player or the position they need most. The draft shouldn't be about what you need now, but which of the players that is available projects to be the best in the long term. Adding Grigorenko may set the Oilers back a touch as they wait for him to develop, but that shouldn't stop them from choosing him. He'll almost certainly develop at a faster rate than any defenseman picked in that slot. If the organization feels that none of the draft-eligible defensemen stack up to the forwards, then going off the board is probably ill advised.

06/15/11 39.0 Some Facts About 31st Overall Picks

Georges Laraque and... Friends

Big Georges up there is having a good old time, isn't he? Aside from being a muscular and athletic dude, Georges Laraque also has a decent bank account, which can't hurt with the ladies. That bank account started when he was drafted 31st overall by the Edmonton Oilers in 1995. Believe it or not, Laraque is actually one of the best players taken 31st overall in the last 20 years. Here they are:

2010 - Tyler Pitlick (Edmonton)
2009 - Mikko Koskinen (NYI)
2008 - Jacob Markstrom (Florida)
2007 - T.J. Brennan (Buffalo)
2006 - Tomas Kana (St. Louis)
2005 - Brendan Mikkelson (Anaheim)
2004 - Garrett Leslie (Vancouver)
2003 - Danny Richmond (Carolina)
2002 - Jeff Deslauriers (Edmonton)
2001 - Matthew Spiller (Phoenix)
2000 - Ilya Nikulin (Atlanta)
1999 - Charlie Stephens (Washington)
1998 - Artem Chubarov (Vancouver)
1997 - Jeff Zehr (NYI)
1996 - Remi Royer (Chicago)
1995 - Georges Laraque (Edmonton)
1994 - Jason Podollan (Florida)
1993 - Scott Langkow (Winnipeg)
1992 - Denis Metlyuk (Philadelphia)
1991 - Martin Hamrlik (Hartford)

Tyler Pitlick

Those boyish good looks of Tyler Pitlick are now Edmonton Oilers' property thanks to the 31st overall selection last year. Pitlick had a fine season - despite some injury problems - scoring 27-35-62 in 56 games for Medicine Hat of the WHL. He may end up as a third liner, but a pretty solid one.

Goalie Mikko Koskinen has apparently struggled since being drafted, and is now 8th in the Islanders' organizational depth chart, according to The Hockey News Future Watch. The same magazine had Florida's Jacob Markstrom ranked #2 of the top 50 prospects outside the NHL last year, but this year the goalie has slipped to #8. Still a solid prospect and potentially a future starting goaltender.

T.J. Brennan and Brendan Mikkelson have a shot to be NHLers, and are knocking on the door, but Tomas Tana was a miss for St. Louis in between those two.

Every 31st pick from 1999-2004 was a bust except for Jeff Deslauriers in 2002. Even then, Deslauriers is a fringe NHLer and the idea that he'll never make it is not that far off at this point. Ilya Nikulin (2000) was an Olympian for Russia in the Vancouver Olympics, but he never played an NHL game. 1999 pick Charlie Stephens did not sign with Washington after being selected 31st by that team, and re-entered the draft where he was selected 196th overall in 2001. He went on to play 8 games in the NHL, all for Colorado.

Artem Chubarov played 228 games before returning to Russia and was a half decent player in that time. He set an NHL record by starting his career with four consecutive game winning goals, but he's probably not coming back to North America.

Every player before Chubarov was a bust except for Laraque; seen here plying his trade of fisticuffs:

In all, 12 of the players here are complete busts. 6 fall into the category of being just okay, fringe NHLers, or have the potential to be alright. Those players are: Koskinen, Brennan, Mikkelson, Deslauriers, Chubarov and Laraque. Laraque is probably the best that this group has to offer.

2 of these players - Pitlick and Markstrom - have the potential to be good NHL players. Seen through the eyes of a fan, and with the selection having been so recent, it's easy to like Pitlick. In the end, he may end up being no better than the others in the "just okay" group. Markstrom, on the other hand, does have the potential to the first very good player taken 31st overall in the last 20 years. It had to happen some time.

Historically, this pick doesn't do particularly well. It has great aesthetic appeal because it's almost a first round pick, and it's as good as it gets without actually being one. That's why the pick has value if the Oilers wanted to trade it. If an Oilers' move at the draft involved moving the 31st pick to get a much better one in the first round, it will probably be a good deal for Edmonton.

06/13/11 38.0 Some Facts About 19th Overall Picks

Ryan Getzlaf and Stanley

The man pictured above represents the very best that can be had when it comes to 19th overall picks. If the Oilers don't move up or down in the draft, they will be picking in that slot this year. Here is some information about 19th overall picks over the last 20 years.

2010 - Nick Bjugstad (Florida)
2009 - Chris Kreider (NYR)
2008 - Luca Sbisa (Philadelphia)
2007 - Logan MacMillan (Anaheim)
2006 - Mark Mitera (Anaheim)
2005 - Jakub Kindl (Detroit)
2004 - Lauri Korpikoski (NYR)
2003 - Ryan Getzlaf (Anaheim)
2002 - Jakub Koreis (Phoenix)
2001 - Shoane Morrisonn (Boston)
2000 - Krystofer Kolanos (Phoenix)
1999 - Kirill Safronov (Phoenix)
1998 - Robyn Regehr (Colorado)
1997 - Stefan Cherneski (NYR)
1996 - Matthiew Descoteaux (Edmonton)
1995 - Dmitri Nabokov (Chicago)
1994 - Chris Dingman (Calgary)
1993 - Landon Wilson (Toronto)
1992 - Martin Straka (Pittsburgh)
1991 - Niklas Sundblad (Calgary)



Nick Bjugstad

 Nick Bjugstad here is the last player to go 19th overall. He's listed by The Hockey News Future Watch as Florida's 3rd-best prospect. Chris Kreider is the number one prospect for the New York Rangers, and Luca Sbisa looks like a real player and has already been an Olympian for Switzerland. The last three years of 19th overall picks are tracking well, which is encouraging for the Oilers. However, the 19th overall selection has seen more than its share of busts as well.

Logan MacMillan (now Flames property) looks like a bust in 2007. He's got just 11 points in 63 AHL games and has not suited up for an NHL team. He doesn't appear on Calgary's top-ten prospects list, and it's Calgary's list.

Mark Mitera can almost be called a bust for Anaheim at this point, while Kindl and Korpikoski are at most average NHLers so far. Getzlaf was a home run, Koreis was a miss for Phoenix and Morrisonn was a good value pick for Boston even though he never played a game for that team.

Every 19th pick missed from 1995-2000 except for Robyn Regehr in 1998. Chris Dingman and Landon Wilson were both halfway decent picks in 1994 and 1993, playing 385 and 375 games respectively.



Marty Straka

 Martin Straka ended up being one of the best players taken at 19th overall in the last 20 years. After a slow start to his career, Straka ended up with 717 points in 954 NHL games, including 257 goals.

Niklas Sundblad rounds out the last 20 years as a bust for the Calgary Flames.

All in all, 3 of the 20 players can so far be called very good or elite: Straka, Regehr and Getzlaf. The last three picks at that spot are tracking well, so we will count them as good picks thus far. That being the case, 11 of the 20 picks can be considered at least somewhat legitimate NHL players. The high-end of that spectrum being Getzlaf and Straka, and the low-end being Dingman and Wilson - at least to this point.

9 of the picks can be considered complete busts, but the more recent selections could still go either way. Essentially, the team picking 19th overall has historically had a 50/50 shot of selecting at least a somewhat decent player.

With the Magnificent Bastard Stu MacGregor running the draft, those aren't bad odds.

06/12/11 37.0 Who Else Could the Oilers Get in the Top Ten?

With all of the rumors swirling about the Oilers trying to get another top ten pick (and for once a couple of teams that might be willing to trade out of the top ten), it's time to look at what players might drop to #8 or #9 overall. Obviously the Columbus Blue Jackets are willing to trade the 8th overall pick, but the Boston Bruins might also part with #9 - especially if they don't win the cup - to improve immediately.

Those are really the only picks that are available inside the first ten selections. In the case of both teams, what they will want from the Oilers is Ales Hemsky. Any other trade is not likely to get it done, aside from moving the 1st overall pick in some way, which would be a mistake. As we have seen recently, the Blue Jackets have interest in #83, but the Bruins would also love to have him come on board and help out their lifeless powerplay. If they lose in the Final, it will be plainly obvious that the powerplay is the biggest reason that the Bruins didn't win the Stanley Cup. If Mark Recchi retires, Hemsky would be even more desirable to Boston.

That being the case, the Oilers would need to have a player drop to at least number 8 who they simply couldn't pass up. For the moment, Hemsky is still the most dangerous offensive threat the Oilers have, so to trade him would take a player that is truly going to be special and impactful, and it would have to get the team further along. Here is a list of the highest ranked prospects in this year's draft class that the Oilers would really want, and the likelihood that they will drop to 8th overall.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is almost certainly an Oiler after going 1st overall. If for some reason the Oilers don't take him, there's no chance that he'll drop as far as 8.

Jonathan Huberdeau will likely go to the Avalanche. Huberdeau plays left wing in junior and the Avs are weak at that position. Almost no chance that he drops past #2, and no chance at all that he drops to #8.

With those two out of the way, things start to open up a little.

Sean Couturier: The Florida Panthers have taken a defenceman with their first pick in 3 of the last 4 drafts. Two of those players are in the NHL and Erik Gudbranson should be there soon. The Panthers need help up front. Probably the best all-around player left at forward is Couturier, who Florida could snap up.

If not, it will probably be Landeskog. In that case, Couturier could slip past the Devils at #4 if they take Adam Larsson and he could get by the Islanders if they take a defenceman like Hamilton. However, he is unlikely to get past Ottawa and Winnipeg since both of those teams need help at forward. Couturier could be Winnipeg's franchise center, and they wouldn't let him get by them. In addition, if Couturier did slip to 8th overall, Columbus might prefer to simply select him instead of making a trade.

Adam Larsson might get by Florida, but the Devils need help on defence in a bad way. Larsson could help anchor their blue line for years. If he gets by the Devils, then the Islanders will probably take him since they would have the chance to get the big Swedish defenceman that they had to pass on to select Tavares first overall in 2009. Larsson has too many tools to slip too far in this draft. Last year when Cam Fowler dropped, it was probably because he is a tad one-dimensional and perhaps not thought of as NHL ready. Many teams are regretting not taking Fowler now, and Larsson is more of a complete defender. Very little chance that he drops to number 8.

Gabriel Landeskog could fall a few spots in this draft because of his offense not being what one might expect from a high-end prospect. Florida and New Jersey could easily let him go by, and the Islanders probably could as well. If Ottawa and Winnipeg are looking for more of a pure offensive threat, they could pass on Landeskog as well. But if the Oilers trade Ales Hemsky so they can select Landeskog, do they really get themselves much further ahead? What the Oilers lose in offense from Hemsky they gain in drive and leadership from Landeskog, but probably not for a number of years. Landeskog could be there at #8, but the move doesn't necessarily make sense.

Dougie Hamilton is the second best defenceman available in the eyes of many scouts. He'll have to get by the Devils and Islanders, who need defensive help, but if he does he could easily be on the board at 8th or even 9th overall. Neither Boston or Columbus would rather have him over Hemsky, and the Oilers might be better off having Hamilton help anchor the backend. This is a move that could make a lot of long-term sense.

From 3-7, Florida, Ottawa and Winnipeg will probably all want forwards, which is why Ryan Strome likely won't drop past them. Landeskog, Couturier and Strome are the 3 best available after RNH and Huberdeau, so unless there's a Jeff Skinner type of surprise out there, Strome will be gone by the time the 8th pick is made.

Ryan Murphy is the type of player that could make things very interesting. There's every chance that he'll be around at 8 or 9 overall. Murphy is one-dimensional, but the Oilers could use a pure scoring defenceman. Essentially trading Hemsky for Murphy might seem like a bad idea, but it would give the Oilers a more well-rounded offensive attack.

Nathan Beaulieu, Duncan Siemens and Zack Phillips are all likely to be available at 8th and 9th overall, but they could also drop further to the middle of the first round. Those three represent the last players that are really worth trading up to get, but not necessarily by trading Ales Hemsky. The Oilers might be able to get them at 19th overall, or trade a lesser asset and the 19th pick to move up a few spots and snag one of them. The fact that the Oilers have another mid first-round pick means that there isn't much need to trade up to take any of the other players in round one since the talent level basically levels off with all of them.

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There's a realistic chance that Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Murphy could be around at 8th or 9th, and those two players would be who the Oilers might want to target. Only those two are worth trading a player of Hemsky's ilk. However, the draft is always full of surprises and the Oilers won't hesistate to trade Hemsky if Larsson falls to the 8th or 9th spot. Couturier might also be worth Hemsky in the long run, so if he somehow falls then the Oilers may go after him; but in that case Columbus and Boston might take their chances with simply drafting him.

If one of those four drops to 8th or 9th overall, expect the Oilers to move heaven and earth to get them.

05/27/11 28.0 NHL.com Mock Drafts

Christopher Gibson

Every year on NHL.com, Adam Kimelman, Mike Morreale and Steven Hoffner release mock drafts. In fact, they release several. They come out through the season and are an indication of how some experts think the draft will play out. The interesting thing about these mock drafts is that they take into account the needs of the teams who are selecting in a certain position. The final mock drafts are out for these three, and they all agree on who the Oilers will take first overall. Not surprisingly, it's that undersized center from Red Deer with the great hands and vision. But where they don't all agree is what the Oilers will do with LA's pick. Unless something changes, the Oilers will be selecting 19th overall. Here's a look at the three mock drafts from NHL.com.

Adam Kimelman's mock draft has the Oilers taking goaltender Christopher Gibson 19th overall. Gibson's team, the Chicoutimi Sageuneens, made the QMJHL playoffs despite finishing 13th in an 18 team league with a record of 27-29-12. Despite the obvious shortcomings of the team, Gibson led the league with a .920 save percentage and was second in the league with a 2.42 goals against average. He also had four shutouts, which was good for a tie for second in the league. Only Jacob DeSerres of the St. John Sea Dogs had a better GAA, and he played 7 fewer games and faced 350 fewer shots than Gibson. DeSerres was also playing on the best team in the league.

The Oilers took goaltender Tyler Bunz last year, who is tracking very well, and they also have Olivier Roy in the fold from the 2009 draft. Roy lost the starting job at this year's World Junior Championship, but he's still an interesting prospect in goal. Do the Oilers need another goaltender? Christopher Gibson is ranked at #2 among North American goaltenders in Central Scouting's final rankings, but goalies tend to drop in the draft. The Hockey News had Olivier Roy ranked 38th overall in 2009's Draft Preview and he fell almost 100 spots to the Oilers at 133rd overall in the 5th round. Good though Gibson may be, it's a bit of a stretch to suggest that the Oilers should burn the 19th pick on him when he could easily fall to them later in the draft if they wanted him. Steve Tambellini has tended to take a goalie each draft year, but always in the later rounds. Gibson would have had to really impress for that trend to break.

Jamie Oleksiak

Hoffner and Morreale's mock drafts both have the Oilers taking defenseman Jamieson Oleksiak 19th overall. This pick is probably more realistic, especially if the Oilers do take Nugent-Hopkins first. Oleksiak is ranked 13th among North American skaters by Central Scouting, so he could drop to number 19. Oleksiak is ranked at 17th overall by The Hockey News, and at 6'7" and 244 pounds, it's hard to imagine that he'll drop too far in this draft. An unnamed scout is quoted in The Hockey News Draft Preview as saying that Oleksiak is a poor-man's Tyler Myers. While he may not have the same hockey sense as Myers, Oleksiak is the massive shut-down type of defenseman that the Oilers will need going forward. However, the team has already taken steps in that direction by acquiring Colten Tuebert and drafting Alex Plante. On the other hand, the number of busts among very large players is high, so adding as many as possible is important if a team is going to have one that develops properly.

Oleksiak currently plays for Northeastern University, where he amassed 4 goals and 9 assists for 13 points in 38 games. He also had 57 penalty minutes.

It seems about as certain that the Oilers will take Nugent-Hopkins first overall as it is that Winnipeg will get the Atlanta Thrashers at this point, and in that case the organization will probably want to take a defenseman if they aren't able to use LA's pick to move up. Oleksiak is a decent option at 19th, and his size alone is justification enough for a team that is mostly itty-bitty. However, that doesn't mean that Christopher Gibson wouldn't be a solid pick as well, and if the Oilers get the chance they wouldn't be out of line in drafting him.