a·cu·men [ak-yuh-muhn] noun: keen insight; shrewdness

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Monday, 13 June 2011

06/13/11 38.0 Some Facts About 19th Overall Picks

Ryan Getzlaf and Stanley

The man pictured above represents the very best that can be had when it comes to 19th overall picks. If the Oilers don't move up or down in the draft, they will be picking in that slot this year. Here is some information about 19th overall picks over the last 20 years.

2010 - Nick Bjugstad (Florida)
2009 - Chris Kreider (NYR)
2008 - Luca Sbisa (Philadelphia)
2007 - Logan MacMillan (Anaheim)
2006 - Mark Mitera (Anaheim)
2005 - Jakub Kindl (Detroit)
2004 - Lauri Korpikoski (NYR)
2003 - Ryan Getzlaf (Anaheim)
2002 - Jakub Koreis (Phoenix)
2001 - Shoane Morrisonn (Boston)
2000 - Krystofer Kolanos (Phoenix)
1999 - Kirill Safronov (Phoenix)
1998 - Robyn Regehr (Colorado)
1997 - Stefan Cherneski (NYR)
1996 - Matthiew Descoteaux (Edmonton)
1995 - Dmitri Nabokov (Chicago)
1994 - Chris Dingman (Calgary)
1993 - Landon Wilson (Toronto)
1992 - Martin Straka (Pittsburgh)
1991 - Niklas Sundblad (Calgary)

Nick Bjugstad
 Nick Bjugstad here is the last player to go 19th overall. He's listed by The Hockey News Future Watch as Florida's 3rd-best prospect. Chris Kreider is the number one prospect for the New York Rangers, and Luca Sbisa looks like a real player and has already been an Olympian for Switzerland. The last three years of 19th overall picks are tracking well, which is encouraging for the Oilers. However, the 19th overall selection has seen more than its share of busts as well.

Logan MacMillan (now Flames property) looks like a bust in 2007. He's got just 11 points in 63 AHL games and has not suited up for an NHL team. He doesn't appear on Calgary's top-ten prospects list, and it's Calgary's list.

Mark Mitera can almost be called a bust for Anaheim at this point, while Kindl and Korpikoski are at most average NHLers so far. Getzlaf was a home run, Koreis was a miss for Phoenix and Morrisonn was a good value pick for Boston even though he never played a game for that team.

Every 19th pick missed from 1995-2000 except for Robyn Regehr in 1998. Chris Dingman and Landon Wilson were both halfway decent picks in 1994 and 1993, playing 385 and 375 games respectively.

Marty Straka
 Martin Straka ended up being one of the best players taken at 19th overall in the last 20 years. After a slow start to his career, Straka ended up with 717 points in 954 NHL games, including 257 goals.

Niklas Sundblad rounds out the last 20 years as a bust for the Calgary Flames.

All in all, 3 of the 20 players can so far be called very good or elite: Straka, Regehr and Getzlaf. The last three picks at that spot are tracking well, so we will count them as good picks thus far. That being the case, 11 of the 20 picks can be considered at least somewhat legitimate NHL players. The high-end of that spectrum being Getzlaf and Straka, and the low-end being Dingman and Wilson - at least to this point.

9 of the picks can be considered complete busts, but the more recent selections could still go either way. Essentially, the team picking 19th overall has historically had a 50/50 shot of selecting at least a somewhat decent player.

With the Magnificent Bastard Stu MacGregor running the draft, those aren't bad odds.

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